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Originally posted by MOBIUS
So, do you think Hillary has blown it already?
So, do you think Hillary has blown it already?
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Bill would be jealous to learn she'd blown anything.I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio -
on dem side... Hillary will lose to Obama because she is (an evil) woman, and because Edwards will cede his presidential bid to be Obamas VP.
on GOP side, Giuliani and Huckabee will be in the dead heat, but Huckabee will win by 1 vote, it will be Chuck Norris vote.
For the general election, it will not even be close, a good white Christian vs a black man with Muslim background... not many non-dem liberal pansies will actually vote for a terrorist in disguise.
So Huckabee by a mile
I only hope he is as funny as Bush.
Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"Comment
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McCain's done, even if he wins New Hampshire; he doesn't have the organization or the money to keep going, and it's very hard to see what his next win after NH might be. Maybe the Maine caucus, maybe. But then he's toast.
Romney needs Michigan, bad. If he loses NH and Michigan, he heads into February without a single win (except the Wyomong Stealth Caucus). If that happens, my bet is he bows out after Super Tuesday.
If McCain wins both NH and MI, how does he not become the establishment choice (instead of Giuliani). I think you're optimistic about Giuliani's chances, and pessimistic about McCain's.
The most likely scenario seems to be that McCain wins NH, whose delegates get split proportionally. Romney currently has upward momentum (over a day or two time scale), so he can still contest MI, which becomes a pretty brutal three-way race (sort of like IA Dem), with McCain as the likely winner and Huck as the likely loser. Given that no one except Ron Paul is raising money in the Republican field, Romney can self-fund his way to victory (as in Wyoming) in pre-2/5 states where the media doesn't place emphasis - NV, LA, HI and ME. Huck handily wins SC. Then Huck and Giulani contest FL, with Huck probably being the favorite after a series of last place finishes by Giuliani. Super Tuesday is a crapshoot, but if Giuliani's still viable (and he might delude himself into thinking so), he gets NY and NJ in a walk. Assuming he's still in, Romney get's MA and UT. McCain has AZ as his base. Huck has AR. Then the rest of the states can be divied up. Romney has the cash the compete everywhere, but he'll run stronger in NE and the Mountain West; McCain competes in the Midwest and West; Giuliani in the NE; Huck in the South. Just to insure he gets a seat when writing the platform (and to make things even crazier), maybe Ron Paul could go all-in in a small state. The big enchiladas would be IL and especially CA where everyone will compete (probably favoring McCain, but that's a total guess).
In other words, we could very well see a competitive multicandidate race on 2/6. Maybe even a brokered convention.
The Dem nomination, as has always been the case, is completely boring in comparison. Obama's going to win NH big today. Clinton beats Kucinich for no delegates in MI. Obama has a small edge in NV and a large one in SC. FL is probably a toss-up (assuming Obama continues his victories) and the winner gets no delegates, and Obama decisively wins 2/5.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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How much support did Hillary's near tears earn/lose her?"I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
"I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark TwainComment
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At least two people that were physically present said she'd just gotten their votes.Originally posted by Wezil
How much support did Hillary's near tears earn/lose her?
We'll see this evening if there were any others swayed one way or the other.Comment
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I heard it discussed today and was wondering what the American sense of it was.
The radio callers I heard were negative on it. Two separate camps: a) It was a fraud and she faked the emotion for political gain, and b) She "broke down" and the president just can't afford that luxury. I'm indifferent b/c as you may know I've never seen her winning this thing anyway. Just curious."I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
"I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark TwainComment
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Personally I'm in the a) camp, but it'd be a cold day in hell before she got my vote anyway, so I'm not who it was aimed at. I haven't seen/heard any real feedback on it, though.Originally posted by Wezil
I heard it discussed today and was wondering what the American sense of it was.
The radio callers I heard were negative on it. Two separate camps: a) It was a fraud and she faked the emotion for political gain, and b) She "broke down" and the president just can't afford that luxury. I'm indifferent b/c as you may know I've never seen her winning this thing anyway. Just curious.Comment
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Regarding the Clinton matter, I'm inclined to think that it's a wash. Whatever loss of support she gets would probably be at least balanced by people pissed off by the media's sexism.
In other news:
ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.
"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly."
Scanlan said that the Secretary of State's office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).
According to Scanlan, the ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary. New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner predicted that 90,000 undeclared voters would vote in the Democratic primary compared to 60,000 voting in the Republican primary.
Good news for Obama, bad news for McCain. The only publicly released poll (with the full internals) is based on Indies going closer to 55% Dem than 60%. If Gardner's numbers hold up, Obama should outperform polls where he's leading by a several point margin in, while Romney should outperform polls where he's trailing by a smaller margin. Romney's still in the game, while Clinton really is not."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Most radio callers are right-wing zealots.Originally posted by Wezil
I heard it discussed today and was wondering what the American sense of it was.
The radio callers I heard were negative on it. Two separate camps: a) It was a fraud and she faked the emotion for political gain, and b) She "broke down" and the president just can't afford that luxury. I'm indifferent b/c as you may know I've never seen her winning this thing anyway. Just curious.
They've been listening to Hillary bashing since 1992 and have been brainwahed to despartely hope Hillary goes away.
For me, I thought her emotion (and no, she didn't "break down") was her most human point in the campaign. [...but not enough to tempt me to vote for her.]
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I don't want to threadjack but I suspect you have never compared the US and Canadian versions.Originally posted by Zkribbler
Most radio callers are right-wing zealots. They've been listening to Hillary bashing since 1992 and have been brainwahed to despartely hope Hillary goes away.
"I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
"I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark TwainComment
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Typical dumb ass call ins. I can't listen to that ****. It's too depressing.Originally posted by Wezil
b) She "broke down" and the president just can't afford that luxury.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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The Prediction markets have Obama ahead in NV, and SC is being conceded to him. Florida looks like it will be competitive as well.On the Dem side, Hillary's still in good shape, even if she loses NH; she's poised to take Michigan the folowing week, Nevada the week after that, and Florida the week after that (though Obama could catch her in South Carolina that same week, giving him a win on the eve of Super Tuesday).Companions the creator seeks, not corpses, not herds and believers. Fellow creators, the creator seeks - those who write new values on new tablets. Companions the creator seeks, and fellow harvesters; for everything about him is ripe for the harvest. - Thus spoke Zarathustra, Fredrick NietzscheComment
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The Culinary Workers' Union, which is apparently the kingmaker in NV, is going to throw its support to Obama."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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So were looking at Obama having 4 strait wins under his belt going into Super Tuesday. Thats a lot of Momentum, if Edwards is still in then it might be competitive but if he has dropped out before that point (probably after SC) then it will be an Obama landslide.Companions the creator seeks, not corpses, not herds and believers. Fellow creators, the creator seeks - those who write new values on new tablets. Companions the creator seeks, and fellow harvesters; for everything about him is ripe for the harvest. - Thus spoke Zarathustra, Fredrick NietzscheComment
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Four straight wins going into FL, which almost certainly will be contested (and be deemed important by the media) even if it gets no delegates."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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