Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[N35t0r]

Please use citations according to Chicago.

Thanks.

[Egbert]

Please use citations.

To support my poast, here is a citation to clown suits. You can buy one to wear to a presidential debate..

https://www.blossomcostumes.com.au/themes/fancy-dress-and-occupation-costumes/clowns-and-circus-costumes-and-accessories.html

[Dinner]

Professor Allan Lichtman is predicting Trump will lose. He has correctly called every election since 1984. His model is an interesting one though and I am not sure it will continue to work. It doesn’t use polls, it doesn’t really use any specifics, it just asks extremely general questions which he then answers for himself.

[Jon Miller]

It doesn't seem like a very scientific model.

JM

[Dinner]

I agree though some how it works or at least has in the past. We shall see if it continues to work.

[-Jrabbit]

That's just 9 elections, most of which were easily predictable. Hell, it only takes, on average, 2050 sets of 10 coin flips to achieve 10 in a row.

Not saying his model doesn't work, just that there is an element of luck involved - like the 2000 outcome being decided by the Supreme Court instead of the actual ballot count.

[Dinner]

I honestly still don’t know what to make of the polls. Some show Biden up 8 points nationally, one shows Trump up 2 points, and even trying to figure out which one is more reliable isn’t so straight forward. In 2016 538 had rated Rasmussen as not very reliable yet they called the election results better than any other polling firm.

Now you throw on states closing thousands of polling stations, states mailing ballots to millions of people including people they know are dead or moved away and... Well, everything is truly going to be a crap show. That is before we even get into the Democrats threats about riots and “street fights”.

The thing that truly pisses me off is Democrats are passing laws saying signature varification cannot be used. I see absolutely no reason to do that except that Democrats want to cheat. What do we do when one party clearly seeks to cheat on elections? I don’t want it but I think war is the only alternative given one side clearlybwantsbtoboiebabdbcheat. God help us all.

[Egbert]

A citation is not the same as a link. I did cite a source (538). Googling the website and going to the website and looking at recent polls is something anyone can do.

JM

You have not provided a citation to back up the claims you are making in this poast.

[Jon Miller]

No A polls since last time of Florida according to 538, they have Florida as 60/40 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ecast/florida/ ).

NYT has Biden as +9 in Arizona, 538 has Arizona as 67/33 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ecast/arizona/ ).

No A polls since last time of Pennsylvania, 538 has 76/24 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/ ).

Post has Biden at +6 in Wisconsin, 538 has 80/20 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ast/wisconsin/ ).

Post has Biden at +16 in Minnesota, 538 has 88/12 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ast/minnesota/ ).

No A polls since last time of Michigan according to 538, they have Michigan as 88/12 Biden (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/michigan/ ).

538 currently has 77/23 Biden ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/ ) based primarily on these 6 states.

JM

[Egbert]

Yikes! I will never ask you for a citation again.

[Uncle Sparky]

So, the 338 is the Canadian equivalent of the US 538. The big difference is they are purely statistical and do not allow political commentary. Their ranges are usually right. This year, for the first time, they are analyzing the polls on a US presidential election. They weigh the polls based on the methodology used. After a brief post convention bump, Trump is falling. He'd really better hurry up and rig the vote if he wants to stay out of prison.

https://338canada.com/usa/?fbclid=Iw...s53KoXezQ3PiZ4

[Jon Miller]

Nice website, gives numbers more in agreement with 538 than with the Economist ( https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president has 86% Biden).

JM

[Jon Miller]

According to 338, I should be looking at Nevada and New Hampshire and North Carolina as well.

JM

[ZEE]

Jon Miller is setting a fine example to the rest of you on how to properly place a citation inside of a poast.

Carry on.

[Dinner]

So, the 338 is the Canadian equivalent of the US 538. The big difference is they are purely statistical and do not allow political commentary. Their ranges are usually right. This year, for the first time, they are analyzing the polls on a US presidential election. They weigh the polls based on the methodology used. After a brief post convention bump, Trump is falling. He'd really better hurry up and rig the vote if he wants to stay out of prison.

https://338canada.com/usa/?fbclid=Iw...s53KoXezQ3PiZ4

That is interesting but you are falling into the same trap people fell for in 2016. You’re looking at national polls when the national vote totals are meaningless in the US. Everything is decided state by state. Having an extra 3-4 million votes in CA or NY is nice but doesn’t get you any more electors.

So it does seem nationally Tump is behind but, again, that doesn’t tell us much.

[Dinner]

Ahh, they do have a state breakdown. I was only looking at the US national results. I will have to examine that other tab for the state breakdowns.