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  • #361
    Missouri, Arizona and South Carolina could possibly flip.

    Latest CBS poll from Arizona puts Trump only 2% ahead.

    realclearpolitics.com
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html


    I'm just wondering what the hugely increased numbers of registered minorities in Texas will mean for the state. I think Trump will most likely win it, but not by a large margin. Texas is simply going the same way as California. The republicans tried to gerrymander California as much as possible in the early 90s as they knew they were losing grip.

    Source: Five Thirty Eight

    Click image for larger version Name: silver-landslide-map-2.png Views: 1 Size: 78.9 KB ID: 9102842

    What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
    Want our latest forecasts/election analysis emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. We’re going to spend a lot of time over the next 87 days …


    Could it be like this?
    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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    • #362
      1. When did Giancarlo return, and when did he start being rational?
      2. I was being conservative, if Clinton has the best night possible, based on current state polling I could see this:


      Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


      According to 538, Clinton currently has more than twice as much odds of winning Mississippi than Trump has of winning Virginia. Or Colorado. Or Pennsylvania. That's a miserable position for the Republican nominee to be in at any point in the election.

      Utah being in play is hilarious, but based on polling the Mormons seem to despise Trump, and Romney's blistering assault on him surely hasn't helped his chances there. With the third party candidates sucking away Trump's support, I can see Clinton stealing the state w/ a plurality win.

      What I can't understand is why Iowa seems to be bucking the national trend, as Clinton is under-performing there by a significant margin. Recent post-DNC, post-Trump meltdown polls are still astonishingly tight. The state has been strongly Democratic the past few election cycles, as it's only gone Republican once since 1984, and that was a squeaker win for Bush in 2004. Iowa has usually closely mirrored Wisconsin in how it votes in Presidential elections, within a percentage point or two, and right now Clinton has a double-digit lead in the latter. Not sure why she's not getting similar love in the former. I can't think of any demographic shift there that would account for it, nor any issue that would make Iowans favor Trump more than he is favored nationally.
      Tutto nel mondo è burla

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      • #363
        I came back a while ago.

        Iowa hasn't had the greatest amount of polling done after Trump has sunk himself. I don't know why.

        As far as Texas... Hillary will probably come as close as her husband did against Bob Dole, but I don't quite think she will win it. Polling hasn't been done enough there either. It is notable that there has been a surge of registrations among minorities in the state and republicans are nervous about that.
        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

        Comment

        • #364
          BTW, Florida is still strangely tight in polling, but I strongly think Clinton will win that one comfortably.
          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

          Comment

          • #365
            Boris, flip MT and AK and you're probably spot on. LA will take a bit more.
            Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
            "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
            2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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            • #366
              What I can't understand is why Iowa seems to be bucking the national trend, as Clinton is under-performing there by a significant margin
              Iowa is very white. There are reasonable maps that have Trump winning in Minnesota before Florida.
              Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
              "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
              2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

              Comment

              • #367
                Florida is full of grumpy old people who might vote for Trump

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                • #368
                  Florida is full of grumpy old people who might vote for Trump
                  It's a good thing he loves the Mexican people and serves Tacos at Trump Towers.
                  Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                  "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                  2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

                  Comment

                  • #369
                    Originally posted by giblets View Post
                    Florida is full of grumpy old people who might vote for Trump
                    Oh but he even pissed those people off. I just don't think they have an accurate enough poll out yet. Their polling has been inadequate, like Iowa and Ohio. I think Hillary will win Florida by 3-5%.

                    Florida also has a lot of Latinos, and hot Puerto Rican guys... all of whom hate Dumpster for insulting Latinos and making a mockery of those who died in the tragic shooting.
                    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                    Comment

                    • #370
                      I don't see Texas flipping. Nor S. Carolina. But maybe Arizona, yes. I've got Iowa and Missouri red as well.

                      But SC is only about 2% more blue than Georgia, so who knows?

                      It's early.
                      Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
                      RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

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                      • #371
                        I don't think republicans will take Iowa at all. I don't think Texas will flip either, but Hillary should come as close there as her husband.

                        Georgia has undergone major demographic shifts. There are even more whites with college degrees and that group generally despises Trump and the GOP.
                        Last edited by Giancarlo; August 14, 2016, 09:01.
                        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                        Comment

                        • #372
                          Originally posted by -Jrabbit View Post
                          I've got Iowa and Missouri red as well.
                          Clinton's up by 5 in Iowa

                          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/



                          MO will be close.

                          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/missouri/
                          To us, it is the BEAST.

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                          • #373
                            Obama won Iowa in 2012 by nearly 6 points, while his national margin was 4. I can't see how Clinton would do any worse than that if her national margin is +7-10 over Trump. Despite the polling, I have to think Clinton could only lose Iowa if the election is razor close or somehow she's behind at that point.
                            Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                            • #374
                              Hezbollah is now quoting Donald Trump:

                              Hezbollah Leader Echoes Trump That Obama, Clinton Founded ISIS
                              http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hezbollah-leader-echoes-trump-obama-clinton-founded-isis/story?id=41374713&yptr=yahoo
                              Hassan Nasrallah quoted the GOP nominee in a speech criticizing the U.S.


                              Trump has a new endorsement coming... from Hezbollah.
                              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                              Comment

                              • #375
                                Trump has not invested any money into get out the vote organization, something the rnc and down ballot candidates have complained bitterly about as the candidate usually shares that data, so I expect Trump to do worse than the polls.
                                Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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