Why are the betting markets...

[Boris Godunov]

Yeah, but currently it too close to call. Considering that lead that Hillary has in Illinois, that's pretty impressive.

The polling available for IL (and there's not much, to be fair) show Duckworth trouncing Kirk.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-illinois-senate-kirk-vs-duckworth

The CW on 538 and other sites is that IL and WI are pretty safe pick-up bets for the Democrats. NH, PA and NC are looking decent for them, too, which gives them the 5 needed to take back the Senate via tie and having Kaine as VP. Unless they lose Reid's seat in NV, which seems possible. If it's a Clinton win of +7 or more I think it's likely the more closely-contested races will fall on the Democratic side. Trump's lack of ground game investment and the perception he's going to get mudholed will depress GOP turnout.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say the Dems end up 51-49 in the Senate. In addition to the above 5 and holding on barely in NV, they will pick off either Portman in OH or Rubio in FL. Oh please let it be lil' Marco...

[kentonio]

And a meltdown temper tantrum is something I will not respond to.

Hillary has improved communication the last few weeks. Go ahead and disagree with me... Personal attacks on my character, because I say something one doesn't agree with, add absolutely nothing. Those who employ those attacks usually do so blindly and without any real knowledge of their own.

I do indeed have background in this subject and I will not respond to playground bully like taunting.

Typical Giancarlo. Throws out line like "Polls changed. Pay attention." and "shoddy argument" and then cries when someone points out you're talking total bull****. The sad thing is its not even close to the dumbest thing you've done this week, but I'm not going to tell you what that was, because I'm still too busy laughing at it.

[Giancarlo]

The polling available for IL (and there's not much, to be fair) show Duckworth trouncing Kirk.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-illinois-senate-kirk-vs-duckworth

The CW on 538 and other sites is that IL and WI are pretty safe pick-up bets for the Democrats. NH, PA and NC are looking decent for them, too, which gives them the 5 needed to take back the Senate via tie and having Kaine as VP. Unless they lose Reid's seat in NV, which seems possible. If it's a Clinton win of +7 or more I think it's likely the more closely-contested races will fall on the Democratic side. Trump's lack of ground game investment and the perception he's going to get mudholed will depress GOP turnout.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say the Dems end up 51-49 in the Senate. In addition to the above 5 and holding on barely in NV, they will pick off either Portman in OH or Rubio in FL. Oh please let it be lil' Marco...

Hopefully both Portman and Rubio. I would rather see 52 or 53 Democrat. We will see.

Oh... And I placed the other dudette on ignore. Lol. He can't help but be ignorant and pompous after last weeks beatdown. Poor thing.

[kentonio]

Last weeks beatdown? Oh you poor sad deluded child..

[Giancarlo]

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Opinion/2016/08/15/Kentuckys-gay-Senate-candidate-attracting-little-notice/5471471251843/

This is the kind of person the democratic party needs to support more strongly. Would he possibly win? Probably not. But he could give Rand Paul a run for his money.

[kentonio]

This is the kind of person the democratic party needs to support more strongly.

Gee, I wonder why you might think that..

Befitting a Democratic candidate in red Kentucky, his stump speech sounds like a Republican's. He talks a lot about budget and pension reforms he undertook as mayor. He mentions good-paying jobs, working families, and cracks jokes about Paul spending more time in New Hampshire coffee shops than Kentucky's towns and cities.

[Giancarlo]

Still ignored.... Yawn.

I bet he said something stupidly ignorant. Maybe he should educate himself.

[kentonio]

You're far too insecure not to have looked.

[Giancarlo]

Is he doing it again?

This guy is like Ben. He probably doesn't have any degree. Maybe just a high school diploma.

[Boris Godunov]

The polling available for IL (and there's not much, to be fair) show Duckworth trouncing Kirk.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-illinois-senate-kirk-vs-duckworth

The CW on 538 and other sites is that IL and WI are pretty safe pick-up bets for the Democrats. NH, PA and NC are looking decent for them, too, which gives them the 5 needed to take back the Senate via tie and having Kaine as VP. Unless they lose Reid's seat in NV, which seems possible. If it's a Clinton win of +7 or more I think it's likely the more closely-contested races will fall on the Democratic side. Trump's lack of ground game investment and the perception he's going to get mudholed will depress GOP turnout.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say the Dems end up 51-49 in the Senate. In addition to the above 5 and holding on barely in NV, they will pick off either Portman in OH or Rubio in FL. Oh please let it be lil' Marco...

And I forgot about Indiana. Not much in the way of polls, except campaign internals, but the only Senate numbers I've seen have Bayh up by 15-20 pts over the no-name Republican. That's another near-certain pick up for the Democrats, assuming Bayh indeed runs (and with numbers like that, there's little reason to think he won't).

So if you got IL, IN and WI as almost-certain pick-ups, it's easy to see how the Democrats pick up at least 2 more to retake the chamber. The problem is that then we're subjected to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, which makes my eyes roll into the back of my head.

[Boris Godunov]

Befitting a Democratic candidate in red Kentucky, his stump speech sounds like a Republican's. He talks a lot about budget and pension reforms he undertook as mayor. He mentions good-paying jobs, working families, and cracks jokes about Paul spending more time in New Hampshire coffee shops than Kentucky's towns and cities.

How are those things "Republican?" Democrats talk about good-paying jobs, working families, etc. regularly. That this is "Republican" is the opinion of the columnist.

It's no shock that in deeply conservative states (KY went for Romney by about 30+ pts over Obama), the Democratic candidates are going to toe a much more moderate line than they will in, say, Vermont. That doesn't undermine Democratic policies.

[rah]

Don't count your chickens in IL yet.
Every day a new article comes out with a different tale. From last week

In a race tinged with small but significant changes almost daily, a recent poll by Basswood Research shows U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk currently leading Rep. Tammy Duckworth by two points in the race for U.S. Senate.

Marked by language referencing “neck and neck” statistics, and one contender “edging” ahead of the other, polling reports reveal a tight race subject to nuanced change as the countdown toward the 2016 election continues.

"A new poll conducted by Basswood Research … shows Republican Senator Mark Kirk with 41.9 percent of the vote and Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth with 40.4, the margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points," WBBM-AM said.

NBC Chicago picked up on a clear flip-flop from earlier days, reporting that while April indicated that Duckworth was leading, Kirk is now ahead by 1.5 percent. Politico Pro, meanwhile, revealed that "An internal poll... found GOP Sen. Mark Kirk at 42 percent and Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth at 40 percent."

Regardless of daily fluctuations, one thing was clear to Capitol Fax: "Kirk is actually doing much better vis-a-vis Trump than some of his GOP colleagues."

Politico Playbook, CLTV and Crain’s On Politics all concurred with the data, corroborating that Kirk currently enjoys a definitive lead.

Still too close to call. Maybe when we get closer it one may open up some distance. But to assume one is a sure winner at this point, is just being overly optimistic.

[Giancarlo]

How are those things "Republican?" Democrats talk about good-paying jobs, working families, etc. regularly. That this is "Republican" is the opinion of the columnist.

It's no shock that in deeply conservative states (KY went for Romney by about 30+ pts over Obama), the Democratic candidates are going to toe a much more moderate line than they will in, say, Vermont. That doesn't undermine Democratic policies.

Oh he said that?

This democrat stands for liberal matters on other issues and he is running in Kentucky. He is also gay. That's an uphill battle. I hope he wins but it is unlikely.

[Giancarlo]

Don't count your chickens in IL yet.
Every day a new article comes out with a different tale. From last week



Still too close to call. Maybe when we get closer it one may open up some distance. But to assume one is a sure winner at this point, is just being overly optimistic.

I think the dems are doing slightly better in several republican states against republican senators, than Duckworth is doing.

It is so weird.

[rah]

Duckworth had some issues where taxpayers payed for some of her legal defense that has tempered the enthusiasm for her.
And Kirk was the first to challenge his fellow repugs to give Obama's SC nominee a vote. He was one of the first to denounce the Dumpster.
If Duckworth wasn't a vet missing both legs, it probably wouldn't even be close.