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I think the truth is they may come closer in the House and actually do better than expected among white voters. They are unexpectedly picking up support from white males. That's how bad Trump is right now.
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For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence) -
Originally posted by Giancarlo View Post
We will see about that.
In other news some GOPer has decided to run for president. Electoral Vote is confident that it will cause Hillary to win at least one red state. Trump cannot afford that.
So I call it for Hillary unless there's a massive terrorist attack on Nov. 1st or something.
“...This means GCA won 7 battles against our units, had Horsemen retreat from 2 battles against NMs, and lost 0 battles.” --Jon Shafer 1st ISDGComment
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Georgia... but she has been said to be ahead anywhere from 4-7% in that state now. But their could be others at play like Arizona, Missouri or South Carolina.Originally posted by MJW View PostWe will see about that.
In other news some GOPer has decided to run for president. Electoral Vote is confident that it will cause Hillary to win at least one red state. Trump cannot afford that. So I call it for Hillary unless there's a massive terrorist attack on Nov. 1st or something.
You're right about that. I didn't believe it at first.
For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Opinion/Speculation Time!
I've read somewhere that DEMs would actually start GAINING seats, due to GOP gerrymandering, when they get close to taking the House. This is because there's an artificial number of R+4 districts made by it that Trump could flip to DEM. The reason why the DEMs could take the house in the past was the Blue Dogs. If the Blue Dogs didn't die off because of gay marriage the GOP would be dead right now. The DEMs would change the rules to guarantee victory like moving voting day to both Saturday and Sunday. As it is the GOP will get one last shot to do something that they really don't deserve in 2020 ("something" could be pulling off an Erdogan, building bridges to latinos or basically being able to do anything at all). 2024 would be too late because the DEMs would no longer be hampered by Hillary, they would only need ~32% of the white vote and people would get numb of bad things happening abroad.
Late edit not worth its own post: I'd should be more clear: the GOP will stay afloat for a long time due to their geographic advantage and potential for union-members to flip to R. But, due to the veto, they won't be able to do anything to turn the tide without the Presidency.
Even later edit: DEMs are Unions, liberals, a bunch of other random people and minorities. 2&4 won't be able to switch, #3 doesn't matter that much and so all that's left is #1. It would be so hard to crack off that by the time it happens the DEMs wouldn't need them anymore and it would be a "comeback" in name only. Remember how DEMs were never able to break the fundie+big business alliance. They had to overpower it by demographics just like they will be overpowered one day by too much internal pressure.Last edited by MJW; August 21, 2016, 15:13.“...This means GCA won 7 battles against our units, had Horsemen retreat from 2 battles against NMs, and lost 0 battles.” --Jon Shafer 1st ISDGComment
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Well a majority of democratic countries have their election day on sunday, like Russia.
Yet with the rise of absentee ballots (so damn convenient) it does not seem as influential as 10 years ago.
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!Comment
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Jon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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Ah, so it's called Longroom.
The much-anticipated 2016 version of 2012's www.unskewedpolls.com...
Nate Silver:
Full article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-losing-badly/You should also be skeptical of other attempts to reweight pollsters’ data. One website, LongRoom, claims to “unbias” the polls using “actual state voter registration data from the Secretary of State or Election Division of each state.” The website contends that almost every public poll is biased in favor of Clinton.
Think about what that means: The website is saying that a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information — and have a good record of doing so — are all deliberately biasing the polls and aren’t correcting for it.Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-ArmsComment
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Democrats have a large registration advantage in many states and especially in swing states. Like Pennsylvania. Longroom is a conservative pro-Trump site. The polls have generally been right throughout the primaries, barring Michigan.
Longroom is a stupid site. They claim bias, but when Trump was doing better the polls are wonderful. **** site.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Far from it. Right wing spin site that can't handle the fact democrats have a major registration advantage in key states. Maybe they could write an article criticizing Trump for having no grassroots mobilization team.Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
The polls have been solid for the past few general elections. But these same clowns claimed the same about Mitt Romney.
Why include more republicans when registration doesn't favor them?
Edit: From what I have also seen, independents are quite opposed to Trump. Especially now. Trump has lost every group and has seen his leads dissipate. Among white men without college degrees, he has seen his double digit advantage fall to a slim advantage. That is why he is losing badly.Last edited by Giancarlo; August 11, 2016, 17:03.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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I laugh at the Democrats crowing that they will never lose when their largest election day turnout was in 2008. Hillary won't beat that either. Yes, you'll beat Trump because Trump sucks, not because Hillary is awesome.Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!Comment
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Mile wide - inch deep.So what are y'all making of Trumps economic ideas?Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!Comment
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That remains to be seen. Trump has pissed off people so much turnout may actually be close to 2008... For the democrats. He is a great mobilization tool and the democrats just need to sit back and watch.Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
Trump scores worse among key democrat party core groups than even Romney did.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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It's not really translating into support for Hillary though. Support for third party, yes, and support for voting downballot, yes, but not Hillary support. The Trumpets are pretty desperately hammering down the #NeverTrumps publicly.That remains to be seen. Trump has pissed off people so much turnout may actually be close to 2008... For the democrats. He is a great mobilization tool and the democrats just need to sit back and watch.
He scores worse among Republican core groups than Romney did too. Terrible nominee.Trump scores worse among key democrat party core groups than even Romney did.
He's ahead of the Truman Campaign and ahead of Bush I in 1992. But even Bush I recovered by the 3rd week of August and never looked back.Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!Comment
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Polls say otherwise at this point and many of those minorities and groups I brought up aren't voting independent. Those are core democrat voting groups (like Latinos, women, African Americans, etc). Those who are fleeing to third parties (LP) are some republicans and some independent voters. Also Clinton scores well in certain red states I mentioned. Her support is vastly up.Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
It is 2016. And its August already. Trump can't recover from all the crap he has said. He has dug himself too deep.He's ahead of the Truman Campaign and ahead of Bush I in 1992. But even Bush I recovered by the 3rd week of August and never looked back.
You are as poorly informed on this subject as you are on LGBT people. So quiet down, troll.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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I literally don't know anyone who thinks Hillary is awesome. The only crowing I see (and there's a lot of it) is over Trump's relentless shooting of his own foot.Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
P1ssing away his solid natural advantage in the military/vets vote by attacking the Khans for several straight days was perhaps the single stupidest thing I've ever seen a candidate do. And I'm 62.Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-ArmsComment
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