Why are the betting markets...

[ricketyclik]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump wins. What happens next is anyone's guess.

I think there's a connection with Brexit and a swing to the right in many countries - the elite pointing the finger at foreigners as the reason why the masses are missing out on economic growth, distracting us from the fact that it's them.

Trump reminds me of many figures in history who've successfully done this.

[Lorizael]

Re: Trump vs. babies, I saw people on Twitter point out this excellent caption from the Guardian a few days ago.

[Giancarlo]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump wins. What happens next is anyone's guess.

I think there's a connection with Brexit and a swing to the right in many countries - the elite pointing the finger at foreigners as the reason why the masses are missing out on economic growth, distracting us from the fact that it's them.

Trump reminds me of many figures in history who've successfully done this.

Not according to any of the polling or the amount of people who turned out in the primaries (Hillary vastly exceeded Trump in number of voters).

The US isn't the UK. I've already explained why.

Trump has been a monumental failure against Hillary. The general election is a far different game and with his slumping poll numbers it doesn't look good.

Plus Obama is hovering between 54-57% approval. The last President to have an approval rating that high was Reagan at this stage of the game.

Also your point would make sense if Trump had high approval ratings. The reality is he's hated by most of America and Hillary's approval numbers are improving herself. Trump attracts about 1/3rd to maybe 40% of the republican party. He doesn't even generate high approval ratings among republicans. In fact it's so bad 20% of republicans say they would vote for Hillary.

And your argument about a swing to the right would be true if it was actually happening. Many countries are actually tilting more left ward.

[Sir Og]

Now that Hillary is almost 100% certain to win will everybody relax and not vote or vote for Johnson in the last minute?

[Dinner]

I will be voting for Stein. Not because I like her so much but because I dislike the two major candidates and because I want to promote third parties so we get more competition and maybe, one day, actual viable choices. If the Greens get at least 5% of the vote, they will get federal funds for the next election and that will help them build up a third party option. Rightists should do the same for the libertarian party as Donald Trump is almost as big of a flaming dumpster fire as Brazil is.

[Giancarlo]

I will be voting for Stein. Not because I like her so much but because I dislike the two major candidates and because I want to promote third parties so we get more competition and maybe, one day, actual viable choices. If the Greens get at least 5% of the vote, they will get federal funds for the next election and that will help them build up a third party option. Rightists should do the same for the libertarian party as Donald Trump is almost as big of a flaming dumpster fire as Brazil is.

And free trade will magically fix everything.

By the way, maybe you should look up what Stein actually stands for. Not free trade.

I'm voting for Hillary because Trump is far worse and I'm not looking to throw away my vote for a party that will probably get around 1-3% of the vote. The Green Party has sank in the polls in recent times once again.

[rah]

I think it's a good year to vote 3rd party. It really doesn't matter which one. Personally I'd like to see both the Greens and Libs hit the 5% threshold. I know it's a long shot but if is every going to happen, this is a good year for it.

I just can't vote for the Dumpster or Shillary.

[Giancarlo]

I hope the Libs get some disillusioned republican votes.

Stein has never really attracted much of a percentage.

This is the site someone likes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Stein generally hovers around the 3-5% mark. But I doubt she'll even get that.

[rah]

I expect the Libs to get some repug votes and
I expect the greens to get some of the dem votes.

If there was every a year to protest and vote that way, this is it.

[Giancarlo]

I expect the Libs to get some repug votes and
I expect the greens to get some of the dem votes.

If there was every a year to protest and vote that way, this is it.

Except more dems are crowding behind their candidate. The polls now say in the high 90s support the official candidate. The democrats have started to unify. The Republicans haven't. Most who are voting for Stein were Green party supporters and maybe some independents. Johnson does take a lot more of the republican vote it appears.

[rah]

I never said differently, but I think your bias is slightly showing. I don't think the dems are totally kumbaya as you believe. Not all the polls agree with you. But I could be wrong. We'll see at election time. It's only my opinion.

[Giancarlo]

I never said differently, but I think your bias is slightly showing. I don't think the dems are totally kumbaya as you believe. Not all the polls agree with you. But I could be wrong. We'll see at election time. It's only my opinion.

Of course I am biased, but the polls say one thing and that is democrats are indeed unifying behind their candidate. I would rather have Hillary than the fake hair thing from the deep lagoon. Most polls do agree with me. We will see for sure.

I will take the dems with their flaws, over the Republicans any day. And I won't throw my vote away either... Even in California.

[rah]

If voting for an IND helps towards getting a wider choice in the future, it is far from wasted.
Besides, in Illinois the outcome is already determined, so a vote for either main candidate is wasted as far as I'm concerned.

Since I work for a research company I highly respect polls (when done correctly) but as with everyone that has ever done polls you sometimes end up with egg on your face so you shouldn't put all your faith in them.

[Giancarlo]

If voting for an IND helps towards getting a wider choice in the future, it is far from wasted.
Besides, in Illinois the outcome is already determined, so a vote for either main candidate is wasted as far as I'm concerned.

Since I work for a research company I highly respect polls (when done correctly) but as with everyone that has ever done polls you sometimes end up with egg on your face so you shouldn't put all your faith in them.

I still won't vote for either of them, not even in California. My vote will go for the Democrat.

The polls have been pretty good (barring Michigan) during the primaries. I am not putting all my faith in them, but I can say with some certainty Trump is falling hard right now.

[kentonio]

Also worth remembering that back in 2012 the Greens were only polling at 1% and the Libertarians at 3%. Hard to argue they aren't benefiting from the weak major candidates this time around.