Palin v Clinton for 2016

[Ben Kenobi]

Social issues are firmly held beliefs on either side of the spectrum. It's clear that social conservatism did not turn off independents in this election.

You want to win over social conservative minorities, try being social conservative.

[regexcellent]

Oh, as an example, here's a specific social issue where Republicans have completely won the argument: Gun control.

[DinoDoc]

Social conservatism is popular in some areas, certainly. Not enough areas to win however. Chicago is not New York; it's in the middle of the midwest (and my wife's from rural Missouri, so I have a lot of experience with rural social conservatism). My point is that the country is heading the other way - even some of the formerly social conservative areas are becoming less so, as people realize that the policy of forcing your personal preferences on other people is rather, well, ANTI-AMERICAN. Even Texas will probably shift away from it in the next decade.

A counter argument here is to ask you when during the course of the campaign you heard Romney make social conservative values a major part of his campaign.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Waiting patiently for the all-Jersey Christie v. Booker campaign. It should be entertaining, at least.

[regexcellent]

Social issues were used as a way for the Democrats to motivate their base. Independents were not interested.

[Alexander's Horse]

Ben, I suspect you've been sneaking slugs of the altar wine and snorting the incense again. It is kind of understandable after such a massive and embarassing loss in which you are so hopelessly invested and identified with, but still wrong my friend - think of the example you are setting to the other altar boys.


Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife. Like JRR, I too think you've been having bad thoughts about Mrs Palin, and I fear you have been acting on those thoughts, probably with a woollen sock. You need to get to confession asap my friend. To show your contrition you should destroy your massive collection of photos of Mrs Palin before you see the priest, especially the swimsuit ones.

[Ben Kenobi]

Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife. Like JRR, I too think you've been having bad thoughts about Mrs Palin, and I fear you have been acting on those thoughts, probably with a woollen sock. You need to get to confession asap my friend. To show your contrition you should destroy your massive collection of photos of Mrs Palin before you see the priest, especially the swimsuit ones.

You mean the Miss Alaska pageant?

[Guynemer]

I think it's important to consider another long term trend here. The midwest has been shifting to the right. Democrats, in their quest to grab up all the minority votes, have ignored the largest component of the population. In a future era where places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan are all likely pickups for the Republicans, the Democrats would have a much harder time getting to 270.

e: I should add Iowa to that list as well.

The **** are you talking about? Seriously, what on earth makes you think the GOP are likely to pickup up Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan? The GOP has lost regular control of Ohio, fergodssakes, Hell, they even lost INDIANA four years ago.

[regexcellent]

The GOP has never had regular control of Ohio in recent memory. In the past 10 elections Ohio has always voted with the winner.

We're seeing closer results in a lot of places in the midwest than we used to see. The decline of unions in particular is hurting democrats.

[Guynemer]

IIRC, historically, Ohio has always trended severeal percentage points to the right of the rest of the upper Midwest states (save Indiana, which is just plumb loco).

The fact that the GOP couldn't win the second most-conservative state in the region when their opponent was Barack Obama does not bode well for their ability to win the rest of the Midwest, especially when the aging population is aging itself into ****ing graves.

[regexcellent]

I'm saying that as those states age, and as the democrats shift further and further from white people, it will become easier for Republicans to win in the midwest, which as the industrial heartland has been a key democratic region for a while now. The decline of unions, central to the democratic organization in those states, is also huge.

[Guynemer]

As those states age, more and more white people are ****ing dying in those states. Pursuing older white voters is a losing strategy nationwide and on the state level.

[regexcellent]

The population as a whole is aging. And it's not just old white voters, it's white voters in general. As dems do worse with white people, Republicans stand to gain in places where there are lots of white people. Like the midwest. Pursuing the largest demographic group is not a losing strategy.

[Alexander's Horse]

Miss Alaska pageant...karumba!

[Guynemer]

The population as a whole is aging. And it's not just old white voters, it's white voters in general. As dems do worse with white people, Republicans stand to gain in places where there are lots of white people. Like the midwest. Pursuing the largest demographic group is not a losing strategy.

Increasing your market share in a shrinking market is generally not a recipe for success.

Exit polls show that the White share of the vote has dropped from 86% to 70% in the past 20 years. That trend is not going to change.