Palin v Clinton for 2016

[-Jrabbit]

Christie doesn't have Romney's baggage yet, as he hasn't been on the national scene long enough. Fairly or not, he has more of a reputation of being a very good governor; and he doesn't have the flip-flopper reputation (yet). I don't know if he would be willing to play the games and flip-flop enough for the republican base to vote for him, but I think a lot would support him. And don't discount carrying NJ - a well-loved governor can carry a state regardless of their normal politics.

I don't think there is any perception that his praise of Obama hurt in any real circles that matter. Fox News is irrelevant and that blog post was utterly shallow and meaningless as well.

There's an awful lot of vindictiveness and not a little infighting in the GOP. And some important people are rankled, some even blaming him for the loss.

The thing the GOP seems incapable of comprehending is this: Fiscal responsibility is the big tent. People can get behind it, especially if the economy remains tepid under Obama. If someone socially moderate (read: reasonable) but fiscally sound (like Christie) were nominated, all the miserable single-issue voters (prolife hardcores, hetero-only marriage, gun lovers, whatever) who hate him/her in the primaries would fall in line in the general, since their alternative would be Clinton/Biden/whoever - a Democrat.

Then the GOP would be in and could take it from there.

But I doubt it will happen, mostly because the GOP habitually doubles down on the conservative side when they lose - both socially and fiscally. Ben's reaction is typical; it's like a reflex. It will be interesting to watch.

[DaShi]

Yes, most of the GOP candidates I can think of who could win the primary, could not win the general and vice versa.

[Boris Godunov]

Dunno why Biden would run - unless he's that interested in getting ***** slapped by Hillary.

There's no way there would be a primary battle between the two.

First, Hillary isn't running. She has ruled it out forcefully, and I see no reason to not believe her. I've not seen one indication she intends the run.

Second, if Biden wants to run, the field would clear for him much as it did for Gore in 2000. Obama would undoubtedly back him, and that alone would make him the favorite, and he'd inherit Obama's organization. That alone would probably deter Clinton, as I would bet she does not have a stomach for going through another brutal primary.

However, I think that it's possible that should Hillary be determined to run, Biden would step aside. In fact, I could see Obama and Biden having promised to clear the field for her in 2016 in exchange for Bill's non-stop stumping this year. I don't believe that happened, though.

2016 will most likely be an open race for the Democrats as it was in 2008 for the Republicans. Cuomo, O'Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer, and Warner are the big names that are most obvious. Not exciting at the moment.

[-Jrabbit]

Yes, most of the GOP candidates I can think of who could win the primary, could not win the general and vice versa.

Yeah, it's even part of their nomination process -- the pledge-signing, the oath of fealty to "core principles," the ritual ring-kissing (of Christians, Fox/media, lobby groups, and the bankrollers). It's almost like pledging a fraternity in some ways.

Not that there isn't plenty of that kind of thing on the Dem side. They've got their own problems.

[DinoDoc]

If someone socially moderate (read: reasonable) but fiscally sound (like Christie) were nominated,

You may have noticed in 2012 the GOP nominated a NE governor who was a social moderate and had a relatively good tenure as governor in his state. He lost. I get where the attraction to Christie came from before the election but why are people still bringing him up.

[Alexander's Horse]

I want a US President with nice gams - then I can turn down the TV and enjoy.

[-Jrabbit]

He has created a memorable photo-op embodying and demonstrating a capacity for bipartisanship. And Democrats could fall for that.

It's a brand position no one else in the GOP can match. Combined with other qualities, it makes him an intriguing possibility.

[-Jrabbit]

You may have noticed in 2012 the GOP nominated a NE governor who was a social moderate and had a relatively good tenure as governor in his state. He lost. I get where the attraction to Christie came from before the election but why are people still bringing him up.

If Mitt is what passes for a social moderate, Republicans need to buy a vowel and spell it out. Because that is clearly not the message I received.

[DinoDoc]

If Mitt is what passes for a social moderate,

He can't reasonably be called a social conservative and social values played no role in his campaign. The social values guy was Santorum and he lost in the primary. Could you explain where you got this impression from?

[-Jrabbit]

Um, the Republican platform?

BTW, I agree that it didn't play very big in this election.

[Alexander's Horse]

If Chris Christie runs, Dave Letterman will have enough gags to get him through to retirement, and then some.

[DinoDoc]

Um, the Republican platform?

Was Bart Stupak a radical pro-choice Democrat given the platform of the party he ran under?

[Boris Godunov]

You may have noticed in 2012 the GOP nominated a NE governor who was a social moderate and had a relatively good tenure as governor in his state. He lost. I get where the attraction to Christie came from before the election but why are people still bringing him up.

Good tenure? Declining to run again after one term with a ~35% approval rating is a good tenure? Based on the MA vote margin this year, I don't think they have fond memories of him.

[kentonio]

The social stuff was extremely important to many female voters. Just because the Romney campaign kept saying 'that's not what this election is about' does not make it so.

As for the republicans having a 'popular economic' platform, why the hell do you think Obama just won? Raise defence spending while slashing healthcare and social programs as deeply as possible? Seriously, that's a popular platform?

[Boris Godunov]

Romney didn't run as a moderate, at least not for most of the campaign. He tacked hard-right to get the nomination and didn't suddenly pivot to moderate views until the first debate. Surprise, surprise: that's when his poll numbers spiked. If the Romney who crowed about being "severely conservative" had shown up at the debates, he would have gotten killed. His campaign knew that, so they etch-a-sketched virtually everything he'd run on up until that point. And it almost worked.

Oh, hell with it. Go ahead and nominate a "true conservative" like Santorum in 2016 and see how that works out for you, Republicans.