The Last Last Election Thread

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Asher


I am the dual citizen...of USA/CDN.

We don't want you though. Go back to Alberta.

[KrazyHorse]

Wow, this is really going to be a fun 4 years.

I don't even give a **** about Franken winning in Minnesota. But unlike you I make predictions by considering the best available information, not by projecting my hopes onto the real world.

If in 4 years Obama has as little chance of winning reelection as McCain had of winning this election I will quite clearly say so.

I'm not particularly emotionally vested in him as a politician either, but even if I were, I am not so much of a coward that I couldn't look reality in the face. You've demonstrated time and time again that when confronted with unpleasant probabilities you retreat to a fantasy world of improbability.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Oerdin
**** MN.

I agree. I'm declaring a boycott of MN-6

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by MarkG
what would the electoral votes be if there wasnt this "winner takes all" system?

You mean if the EC vote in a state was distributed by....what?

[Lancer]

So is the senate 58 as predicted?

[Dinner]

Probably but not totally decided.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm not particularly emotionally vested in him as a politician either, but even if I were, I am not so much of a coward that I couldn't look reality in the face. You've demonstrated time and time again that when confronted with unpleasant probabilities you retreat to a fantasy world of improbability.

I recall a week ago, when people said O+10 was the truth. I believe I said then what I said now, that the truth was tighter then they expected.

I said that all the polls would tighten up as the election got closer and this was so.

I was wrong about some things, but I was closer to the truth at M+2 then the folks at O+10 were. Yes, I predicted quite a few states for McCain to break for him that didn't, but I never said it was M+10.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


You mean if the EC vote in a state was distributed by....what?

I think he is asking about proportional vote. The answer is who cares? That isn't reality.

[KrazyHorse]

Looks like it'll be 59. Oregon is still a bit up in the air, but is probably Dem. MN is almost certainly Dem at this point.

GA might go to a runoff.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I recall a week ago, when people said O+10 was the truth. I believe I said then what I said now, that the truth was tighter then they expected.

I said that all the polls would tighten up as the election got closer and this was so.

I was wrong about some things, but I was closer to the truth at M+2 then the folks at O+10 were. Yes, I predicted quite a few states for McCain to break for him that didn't, but I never said it was M+10.

I'm willing to bet you just about anything that when ALL the votes are counted the results will be closer to O+10 than M+2.

[Dinner]

A week ago 538 project +6/+7 which is what we're seeing.

[Kidlicious]

It seems like the recession hit hardest in all the right states for Obama.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I recall a week ago, when people said O+10 was the truth. I believe I said then what I said now, that the truth was tighter then they expected

No, you said that McCain was a lock. Stop lying, Ben. It's not good for you. I'm serious.

[Ben Kenobi]

No, you said that McCain was a lock. Stop lying, Ben. It's not good for you. I'm serious.

Where did I say M+10?

I may be optimistic, but at least I'm not delusional. I mean look at the NYT. I saw a poll that said O+13 just a day or so ago.

[KrazyHorse]

Compared to what I thought would happen a week ago:

Obama strongly overperformed in Ohio, moderately underperformed in Virginia, overperformed slightly in national popular vote. He may have overperformed in Nevada, but have not bothered to check too closely on race there at county level.