The Canadian Federal Election will probably be October 14th

[Ben Kenobi]

I wouldn't be saying blah, blah, blah too much. You seem very blaze about a situation that is within 120 or 360 days of something not seen since 1930.

It's not even as bad as '87.

You think living through the '30s deserves a 'blah, blah, blah?'

The conditions that occured in the thirties are not present here. You don't have the massive dollars paid in reparations, and you don't have the high tariff walls that were erected to choke off international trade.

International trade is high, and so is production. Employment is holding steady. The worst thing that could happen is to save the lenders who made bad and risky decisions. Let them die off and let the stronger ones survive.

For my money, I question the motives of opposition party leaders who use a debate to sow seeds of uncertainty about the Canadian economy.

I'm with you here.

That having been said, we are a resource producing, net exporting country. If the world economy goes into the crapper, we had best all bend over and kiss our economic asses good bye for the next several years.

So far that seems to be just fine. I'm not seeing any indications that trade is dropping off as we saw in the Great Depression.

It matters not a whit who is in power in Ottawa when the **** storm comes over the market horizon. We'll all be engulfed in ****. I do however have serious questions about national political leaders who try to create uncertainty where none existed yesterday, and when the victims of uncertainty would be our banks.

Exactly, and I agree wholeheartedly. The bubble was never as big here, but there are some areas that could certainly stand to come down considerably. It's funny. The bubble was finally starting to reach where I am as housing prices jumped considerably in the last year, and now they've dropped back down.

Housing demand over the long run is going to drop, so a decline in housing prices is the natural result. The oversupply has simply exacerbated this position. It won't be until all the houses are cleared that the recovery will start again.

[Asher]

So polls indicate either Dion or Duceppe won in Quebec.

They must've liked Dion's plan to have lots of meetings.

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by Asher
So polls indicate either Dion or Duceppe won in Quebec.

They must've liked Dion's plan to have lots of meetings.

The poll is not valid; regardless of my political opinion.

Around 250 person polled(5-6% variation), and they have polled only the people who have watched entirely the debate; which lead me to believe that the poll is REALLY biased toward BQ.

[CrONoS]

As an example;

The last Quebec(around 1000 quebeckers polled) polls (that I showed here) put BQ and PC on the same level (BQ: 31; PC:30%).

Yesterday a poll across Canada was showed, with around 300 quebeckers polled; the results was BQ: 36%; PC: 24% (for Quebec).

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
So polls indicate either Dion or Duceppe won in Quebec.

They must've liked Dion's plan to have lots of meetings.

I am assuming that you mean that Duceppe or Dion won the French language debate. That doesn't surprise me. While I am sure Harper and layton gave it a good try, its no shock that the francophones did better in a french language debate

As for the English language debate, there is part of me that wishes they could exclude Duceppe. He does not lead a national party and is there realy anyone for whom French is not their first language that would vote for his party

[Flubber]

Originally posted by CrONoS
As an example;

The last Quebec(around 1000 quebeckers polled) polls (that I showed here) put BQ and PC on the same level (BQ: 31; PC:30%).

Yesterday a poll across Canada was showed, with around 300 quebeckers polled; the results was BQ: 36%; PC: 24% (for Quebec).

Sample size is one issue but your other comment reveals what could be a big bias in a poll. Polling only those people that watched a debate adds a political interestedness bias into the mix. Make it a french language debate and you probably exclude many anglophones

Good pooling is tough to do -- Heck even totally random telephone polls can have systemic issues if they do not capture folks that do not have land lines for instance

[Flubber]

Oh and Ben

The gay marriage fight is over in Canada, feel free to fight it within some church or whatnot but for most Canadians it is now a dead issue. In ten years with gay married people around us everywhere raising there families etc etc, 90% of people will wonder what all the fuss was.

I would be a conservative voter this time if my local candidate wasn't a complete buffoon.

But if harper tried to make gay marriage or abortion issues again, he would lose my support for evermore. I want my government to start managing the economy better and dealing betterwith employment and infrastructure and medical care . ANY focus he puts on those "social conservative" matters would be too much .

If he went in that way he would turn me from a probable conservative supporter into someone that would be passionately anti-Conservative.

And Ben? there are enough people just like me that if he went that route, Harper would never ever ever be close to being PM again. I know it, Stephen Harper knows it and Ben in your heart of hearts, you know it too.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by CrONoS


Quebec polls
...conservatives have a lot more support than 2006 elections:

Bloc Québécois: 31% (2006: 42%; Which is a huge drop)
Conservative: 30% (2006:24%)
Liberals: 16% (2006: 20.8%)
NPD:16% (2006: 7.5%)
Green: 8% (2006:4%)

Today polls (CROP: 1000 peoples polled from 18 to 28 sept; Margin: 3%)

The current CTV/Globe numbers are quite different. They don't give their error numbers though.

* Conservative: 22 per cent (-1)
* Liberal 16 per cent (-12)
* NDP: 15 per cent (+7)
* Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (+6)
* Green Party 4 per cent (0)

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080929/election2008_081001/20081001?s_name=election2008&no_ads=

edit - All the other current polls seem closer to the Globe numbers.

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls-regional.html

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Flubber

As for the English language debate, there is part of me that wishes they could exclude Duceppe. He does not lead a national party and is there realy anyone for whom French is not their first language that would vote for his party

He does well in the english debates. Too bad (for him) we can't vote for him. If the BQ would lose the separatist bits from their platform he could be a contender.

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by Wezil
The current CTV/Globe numbers are quite different. They don't give their error numbers though.

* Conservative: 22 per cent (-1)
* Liberal 16 per cent (-12)
* NDP: 15 per cent (+7)
* Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (+6)
* Green Party 4 per cent (0)

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...on2008&no_ads=

It suck that it doesn't show how many people were polled.

But I think it's the poll that I've come across this morning and yesterday evening.
They polled 300 voters in Quebec; (margin is 6%).

[Wezil]

Sorry Cronos - I DanS'd you.

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls-regional.html

[CrONoS]

thanks for the table.
Much better survey than the one I came across yesterday.

BQ is at 2006 level and Conservatives lower than in 2006 level.

[Fake Boris]

Good thing that Bloc numbers seem to be on the rise since the debate. Few people here want a Tory majority.

[Asher]

If elected, I would ensure all people who vote Bloc are arrested and deported to France.

That's a promise you can count on.

[Fake Boris]

Hot chicks, cheap wine and free universities. Not such a bad deal.