The Canadian Federal Election will probably be October 14th

[notyoueither]

Totally out of the blue, but why do the Tories not note that there are next to zero net energy producers who are subject to Kyoto, and all the lefties want to stamp out one of the things that is working with Canada's economy?

The horror! A familiy from Nova Scotia is seperated as dad goes off to work in Fort McMurray! Did it ever occur to them that dad has the opportunity to find well paid work without leaving the country? Maybe they consider AB to be pretty foreign.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

It's not even as bad as '87.

How many major banks bit the dust in 87?

The conditions that occured in the thirties are not present here. You don't have the massive dollars paid in reparations, and you don't have the high tariff walls that were erected to choke off international trade.

International trade is high, and so is production. Employment is holding steady. The worst thing that could happen is to save the lenders who made bad and risky decisions. Let them die off and let the stronger ones survive.

They are different conditions, but also new situations.

What is the same is that there has been a major shock to the fundamental underpinnings of our economies. The outcome will be different. It could be easier. It could also be harder.

Incidentally, it takes a good while for the long term effects to work their way through to Main Street and make themselves felt when they are sustained over a long period of time.

So far that seems to be just fine. I'm not seeing any indications that trade is dropping off as we saw in the Great Depression.

It will take time to see the effect as the economies of the West are cut off from easy credit, especially for consumers.

Take the rulebook for running a business for the last 30 years and toss it in the garbage. There is going to be a period of adjustment. How painful that period will be remains to be seen, and could be complicated by further unforeseen events.

Exactly, and I agree wholeheartedly. The bubble was never as big here, but there are some areas that could certainly stand to come down considerably. It's funny. The bubble was finally starting to reach where I am as housing prices jumped considerably in the last year, and now they've dropped back down.

Housing demand over the long run is going to drop, so a decline in housing prices is the natural result. The oversupply has simply exacerbated this position. It won't be until all the houses are cleared that the recovery will start again.

This isn't just about houses anymore, and hasn't been for some time.

[Ben Kenobi]

How many major banks bit the dust in 87?

Savings and Loan crisis anybody?

They are different conditions, but also new situations.

What is the same is that there has been a major shock to the fundamental underpinnings of our economies. The outcome will be different. It could be easier. It could also be harder.

Incidentally, it takes a good while for the long term effects to work their way through to Main Street and make themselves felt when they are sustained over a long period of time.

Fundamental underpinnings? The fundamental underpinning of the economy isn't credit but trade. So long as production is high and people are still willing to purchase then things are fine.

1932, steel production was at 18 percent of capacity. We don't see anything like that here.

It will take time to see the effect as the economies of the West are cut off from easy credit, especially for consumers.

Employment is at historic highs pretty much everywhere. I think the talks of great depression are overblown, and a retrenchment was overdue at some point. The worst thing at this point would be to bail out the investment banks who made the bad loans and chose to take on the risk.

The best thing is to let them go bankrupt and let others pick up the good business.

Right now gas is down to about 129 which is a good thing because then prices and expenses for doing business drop substantially.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

Savings and Loan crisis anybody?

I said major bank.

Financial institutions with trillions in assets are hitting the ditch today, not the local credit unions.

Fundamental underpinnings? The fundamental underpinning of the economy isn't credit but trade. So long as production is high and people are still willing to purchase then things are fine.

Derrr... what are American consumers using to buy stuff with, Ben?

The situtation in other Western countries is not to the same extent, but none of our economies have operated on cash and carry for a very long while.

1932, steel production was at 18 percent of capacity. We don't see anything like that here.

And we haven't yet seen any of the effects, or many, on the rest of the economy. Wait for it.

Employment is at historic highs pretty much everywhere. I think the talks of great depression are overblown, and a retrenchment was overdue at some point. The worst thing at this point would be to bail out the investment banks who made the bad loans and chose to take on the risk.

The best thing is to let them go bankrupt and let others pick up the good business.

Right now gas is down to about 129 which is a good thing because then prices and expenses for doing business drop substantially.

There is a reason oil has been going down, Ben. It is in anticipation of decreased economic activity globally.

Just how much less, no one has any idea yet. We'll have to see.

[notyoueither]

1932, steel production was at 18 percent of capacity. We don't see anything like that here.

Note the year, Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

Haven't I been saying that Interest rates were going to rise sometime?

That's not a bad thing at all.

What's the panic if interest rates have to rise in order to encourage lenders to lend again?

The party of low interest rates wasn't going to last forever.

Anyways I heard this right now. Anyone sitting on tangible assets or with cash in hand stands to make a killing.

[Ben Kenobi]

Note the year, Ben.

So where are we? 1929? 1930? 1931?

[notyoueither]

Yes, Ben, but how many are leveraged to, or beyond, their eyeballs through mortgages and credit cards?

They are being or are about to be cut off.

Wall Street, and other bourses, are dealing with the immediate affects on very large corporations.

Those very same consequences are coming to Main Street over the course of foreseeable future. There will be a slow down in spending, that will lead to job losses and less spending, and then some business closures, and then less spending leading to more job losses that yield less spending and hense, yes, more job losses.

All of it complicated by the still employed consumer being less able or willing to spend.

It's a nasty spiral down. Where is the bottom?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


So where are we? 1929? 1930? 1931?

Well the market crash was in '29 IIRC.

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, Ben, but how many are leveraged to their eyeballs through mortgages and credit cards.

Those are the people who are going to be ruined. The folks who have lived within their means aren't going to be affected.

Wall Street, and other bourses, are dealing with the immediate affects on very large corporations.

I'm not worried about the big guys. They can protect themselves. It's the little guys that are going to bear the brunt of things, as it's always been. I have faith in the big guys to weather things out because if they haven't been overleveraged, they are going to find themselves in an advantageous position.

Those very same consequences are coming to Main Street over the course of foreseeable future. There will be a slow down in spending, that will lead to job losses and less spending, and then some business closures, and then less spending leading to more job losses that yield less spending and hense, yes, more job losses.

I live in a lumber town that has experienced serious booms and busts, it's nothing new for folks to stock some away for a rainy day when the boom runs out. As I said the housing boom took years to catch up to us, and prices haven't advanced much at all. It's hard to be dragged down much when you don't have much to lose in the first place.

All of it complicated by the still employed consumer being less able or willing to spend.

Which is the retrenchment that has been a long time in coming. It doesn't make conditions ripe for a great depression, not unless we start making the mistakes that we did back then, none of the conditions which are here.

You and I are basically saying the same thing. The fundamentals here in Canada are strong. That's not going to change from one day to the next no matter how bad the days have been.

It's a nasty spiral down. Where is the bottom?

We're already at the bottom being where we are. Pity the folks who have been way up the ladder who are about to come crashing down.

[Asher]

I just started watching the debate.

Man, Dion cannot ****ing speak English to safe his life. Duceppe is better.

Layton is a ****ing douche for constantly interrupting. So is May.

Harper is coming off as the only grownup sitting with a bunch of children.

[Ben Kenobi]

October began with good news. A rise in steel production put both U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel at 90% of capacity.

That's October of 1929.

I don't know NYE. We would have to see exports here in Canada weakening, which I don't see happening yet.

The worst thing would be for those who have the cash to buy up everything on sight if we are truly in the same position as October of 1929.

The best thing would be to get and keep a cash buffer and to curtail spending until the market has finished falling.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

Those are the people who are going to be ruined. The folks who have lived within their means aren't going to be affected.

In a consumer spending driven economy, thier ruin in ever growing numbers leads to ours.

Do you not get this?

I'm not worried about the big guys. They can protect themselves. It's the little guys that are going to bear the brunt of things, as it's always been. I have faith in the big guys to weather things out because if they haven't been overleveraged, they are going to find themselves in an advantageous position.

Dude, the big guys are getting wiped out.

I live in a lumber town that has experienced serious booms and busts, it's nothing new for folks to stock some away for a rainy day when the boom runs out. As I said the housing boom took years to catch up to us, and prices haven't advanced much at all. It's hard to be dragged down much when you don't have much to lose in the first place.

The end of the housing boom could be the least of your concerns if things go really bad.

Which is the retrenchment that has been a long time in coming. It doesn't make conditions ripe for a great depression, not unless we start making the mistakes that we did back then, none of the conditions which are here.

It's not identical. It's different. It could be easier. It could be worse.

Is that clear?

You and I are basically saying the same thing.

Not at all.

The fundamentals here in Canada are strong. That's not going to change from one day to the next no matter how bad the days have been.

It's going to change when there are no buyers for the goods and resources our economy depends on for exports.

We're already at the bottom being where we are. Pity the folks who have been way up the ladder who are about to come crashing down.

You have no idea.

[Ben Kenobi]

In a consumer spending driven economy, thier ruin in ever growing numbers leads to ours.

The big thing as always are the exports and the primary producers.

Where I am services are ancillary to the overall operation of things. We've been at the bottom in terms of prices for a long time now NYE, and we've made do. We will do better then folks who have experienced price increases and declines. I don't think board foot lumber has much further to drop.

Maybe you see differently, I don't know.

Dude, the big guys are getting wiped out.

What big guys, outside of investment banking? Have we seen any big players get toasted out of the one sector?

The end of the housing boom could be the least of your concerns if things go really bad.

Folks in Alberta buying up houses in PG sight unseen was seen as a rather humourous novelty.

It's going to change when there are no buyers for the goods and resources our economy depends on for exports.

That's true, which is why the big question is where are the surpluses at this point? Do the lumber producers have a large amount of surplus inventory? Not really. They've been preparing for a crash for the last 5 years, since the beetle kill.

This town expected things would get harsh after 2010, when the last of the beetlewood was done. Seeing it come two years early, just means our preparation will hopefully pay off.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher
I just started watching the debate.

Man, Dion cannot ****ing speak English to safe his life. Duceppe is better.

Layton is a ****ing douche for constantly interrupting. So is May.

Harper is coming off as the only grownup sitting with a bunch of children.

Dion's an idiot.

The alliance with May will leave many with the distaste for the Liberals with the easily transferred vote to the Greens.

Did you notice May's head bobbing while Dion spoke when they had the right camera angle?

I won't be sorry to see Dion depart the national leadership stage. I hope he stays on as another federal voice in Quebec. Hopefully his ego can take it.