Tanks are Rolling. Troops are Marching.

[David Floyd]

This could be an outstanding excuse to topple Chavez. Maybe the US should very quietly encourage Uribe to DIAL UP the rhetoric, and promise him air and naval support.

Anything for good TV

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Ramo
This is not proper form for relations between states. There are channels to go through before violating sovereignty - the UN, etc.

It depends on the nature of the intelligence surrounding the base and/or the presence of the leader there. A reasonable case might be made under the Caroline Doctrine.

[Ben Kenobi]

I think Chavez should be commended for invading terrorist nations.

[LordShiva]

[David Floyd]

A few questions to consider:

1)Will there be a war?
2)Will the US intervene militarily?
3)Who will win?

My answers:

1)No
2)Doubtful, although we will support Colombia
3)Colombia, more than likely, although Venezuela might be able to dominate the air war, from what I understand

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Barnabas
Ecuador and Venezuela have broken diplomatic relations with Colombia


BTW, the FARC leader who got killed was Sarkozy´s contact to achieve the liberation of Ingrid Betancourt

He was also the person with whom Correa and Chavez were negotiating for the release of people held by the FARC. The Columbian government had tried to sabotage the negotiations at one point, but Chavez was able to secure the release of several people anyway, greatly embarrassing Uribe. Looks like Uribe found a way to stop those negotiations after all.

[chequita guevara]

It's exceedingly unlikely there will be war, unless Bush assures Uribe of support. If the U.S. stays out, Colombia will have to back down. They have only 10,000 more soldiers than Venezuela (210K v 200K), but no jets (Ven. has Sukhoi-30s), no tanks (Ven. has tanks), and 1/3rd the artillery of Venezuela. Furthermore, the Colombian military is primarily oriented towards killing unarmed civilians. How it would stand up to a real military, when it largely made up of conscripts with no desire to die for Uribe is unknown. In addition, it would be a multi front war, with Ecuador, as well as the ELN and the FARC-EP. Colombia would very likely lose.

The U.S. would almost certainly give military intelligence to Uribe, but the ability to send military forces in at a time when the American public is 70% against the wars it is already in, let alone the fact that the U.S. military is stretched as far as it can go, means that boots on the ground is almost certainly not going to happen. Perhaps they will send unmanned drones, but we're unlikely to find out.

[chequita guevara]

Hmmm, some of those numbers may be off.

[chequita guevara]

Venezuela

187,000 total servicemen (not including police)
tanks
* 86 AMX-30V Main battle tank- (82 AMX-30V +4 AMX-30D)
* 36 AMX-13C.90 Light tank
* 78 Scorpion 90 FV-101 Light tank
* 42 Dragoon 300 LFV2 Light tank
artillery
* 25 AMX-13/LAR-160 160mm Multiple rocket launcher
* 10 AMX-13/Mle F.3 155mm self propelled howitzer
* 24 M114 155 mm howitzer
* 40 M101A1 105mm howitzer
* 40 Oto Melara M-56 105mm howitzer
* 60 Thomson Brandt MO-120 120mm mortar
combat air
# 18 Canadair CF-5 Freedom Fighter
# 18 North American OV-10 Bronco
# 12 Dassault Mirage 50, (to be retired)
# 21 Lockheed F-16 Fighting Falcon, (10 of them operational)
# 24 Sukhoi Su-30MKV Flanker-C (similar with MK2 variant) - 14 commissioned

[chequita guevara]

Colombia has 21 Mirage 5s (about half are Israel Kvirs).

Colombia has 145,000 servicemen

Ecuador has about 60,000 men in arms.

The guerrillas have about 20,000.

I haven't looked at the navies.

[DanS]

We've got plenty of air and sea assets. Those aren't stretched thin.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by DanS
We've got plenty of air and sea assets. Those aren't stretched thin.

...and a certain number of supercarriers.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


...and a certain number of supercarriers.

The favorite weapon of the Imperialist

[Dinner]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_Air_Force

[chequita guevara]

Did you bother to look up how many of those were fighters? It does no good to send a transport plane up against an F-16. Colombia has 21 fighters. Venezuela has 72.