Tanks are Rolling. Troops are Marching.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Colombia's military has greater combat experience.

If you call massacring peasants and assassinating trade unionists combat, I suppose so.

My understanding is that Colombia has about 250,000 regulars and around 70,000 reservists

100,000 of those "regulars" are police, not military.

[David Floyd]

OK, I could be wrong. I will gladly admit you know more about the state of affairs in that region than I do

As for combat experience, though, FARC is a guerilla terrorist organization, and hunting down FARC is not the same as massacring peasants and assassinating trade unionists, and that experience should serve Colombia fairly well in an infantry war.

[chequita guevara]

FARC doesn't stand and fight very often. The whole point of being a guerrilla is hit and run. And the Colombian military will frequently go and massacre a village and declare a great victory over the FARC. The paras are tied at the hip to the military and are often led by current or former officers. They frequently are transported around the country on military transports and allowed to pass through military check points.

Anyway, without American help, which Bush has now pledged, Colombia would likely be defeated. Two-front war, plus two guerrilla groups.

Colombia is the proof that a country can still be a nominal democracy and still rank among the most evil places on Earth. One wonders, though, whether the masses of Colombian people would welcome liberation or not. There is no electoral alternative to the ruling parties, as they were massacred over ten years ago, and the opposition keeps getting slaughtered.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Did you bother to look up how many of those were fighters? It does no good to send a transport plane up against an F-16. Colombia has 21 fighters. Venezuela has 72.

It won't come to a war but theoretically if it did then fighters are only as good as the training of the pilots and crew along with their anti-SAM abilities.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by David Floyd
As for Cuba jumping in against the US, if the US backed Colombia, come on. Yes, they could PROBABLY overrun Gitmo, but they would have no hope of having an ultimately successful war. No, Cuba would stay out.

What's the point of having an ally if you don't help them when they are attacked? And any war they won against the US would definitely be a successfull war.

[Dinner]

Colombia repeats its claim that Chavez has been financing FARC rebels and asks the ICC to bring charges against Chavez.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7277313.stm

[chequita guevara]

That's rich. Uribe's military is actually committing genocide against Colombia's Indians and he has the gall to say something about Chavez.

[Barnabas]

Chegitz, Uribe is wildly popular in Colombia, and FARC very unpopular. Most Colombians think this incident is justified and that Uribe did nothing wrong.

Uribe has the support of most people, over 60%

Uribe is a right wing populist and Chavez a left wing one, till a year ago they would get along very well, and international press would say, maybe one if a leftist and the other one a right winger, but both are populists.


And also, opinion in South America is not split, even USA friendly anti-Chavez Peru thinks Colombia should apologize to Ecuador. Maybe in Central America + Mexico they suppport Colombia more, but I dont think so

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Oerdin
It won't come to a war but theoretically if it did then fighters are only as good as the training of the pilots and crew along with their anti-SAM abilities.

That is true. I don't have any information about that, though.

[PLATO]

Chavez is an idiot, but he isn't stupid. The US would not get involved on the ground, but they could certainly make it a fairly easy campaign for the Columbians by engaging in a robust air assault. With US airpower, Colombia wins. Chavez knows this and will rattle his sabre as long as people will listen, but he will not move on Colombia unless he has a death wish.

As far as Cuba getting involved? That's just laughable. The US airpower that would be brought into play by an attack by Cuba on US soverign territory would stop anything the Cubans could muster until reinforcements began to arrive. It is highly unlikely that the current Cuban regime would survive the counter assault. I mean...Bush with a chance to "liberate" Cuba? C'mon...that's an easy one.

[Dinner]

Didn't Colombia apologize and have its apology rejected?

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Of course because it wasn't a real apology. They justified the action. Real apology says you made a mistake and you won't repeat the action. That's the only kind of apology that should be accepted. What kind of Ecuadorian would accept anything less?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Didn't Colombia apologize and have its apology rejected?

Venezuela and Ecuador want a guarantee in writing that Colombia will not violate their territory again.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by PLATO
The US would not get involved on the ground, but they could certainly make it a fairly easy campaign for the Columbians by engaging in a robust air assault. With US airpower, Colombia wins. Chavez knows this and will rattle his sabre as long as people will listen, but he will not move on Colombia unless he has a death wish.

...The US airpower that would be brought into play by an attack by Cuba on US soverign territory would stop anything the Cubans could muster until reinforcements began to arrive....

In both cases, you over estimate the effect of air power. Guantanamo would be overrun fairly quickly. Sure, the U.S could pound Cuba mercilessly, but we'd take some losses.

The main thing Chavez is doing here is backing up his ally, Ecuador. Without Chavez' backing, Ecuador would simply have to take the attack and just stew about it. Poor Ecuador is always getting beat up on by its neighbors.

[DinoDoc]

Do they regularly have FARC opperating in their territory?