The new Primary Thread

[MarkG]

Originally posted by Admiral
Edwards is just out for delegates now, so he can try to play kingmaker at the convention.

well he's gone now

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/30/AR2008013002142.html

[Alexander I]

And Giuliani is apparently going to endorse McCain.

[snoopy369]

So, how does the Edwards concession affect Clinton-Obama on Tuesday? I feel like it's to Clinton's advantage, but did Edwards stay in just long enough to give Obama the edge he needed to win Super Tuesday?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by snoopy369
So, how does the Edwards concession affect Clinton-Obama on Tuesday? I feel like it's to Clinton's advantage, but did Edwards stay in just long enough to give Obama the edge he needed to win Super Tuesday?

My guess is it helps hillary in the south (she no longer has to split the white vote with him), helps obama in the northeast and upper midwest (he no longer has to split th progressive and anti-war vots with edwards), and it's a wash everywhere else

[Admiral]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


My guess is it helps hillary in the south (she no longer has to split the white vote with him), helps obama in the northeast and upper midwest (he no longer has to split th progressive and anti-war vots with edwards), and it's a wash everywhere else

The real issue is that Obama can no longer point out that his delegates + Edwards' delegates outnumbers Clinton delegates. That makes it harder for him to stay totally viable after February 5th.

[snoopy369]

Well, if Edwards endorses Obama, how many of those delegates cross to Obama?

[Ben Kenobi]

And why would conservatives prefer Romney over McCain?

I don't see it. If anything, the folks who are in McCain's camp might jump to Huckabee now that RudyG's folks are in.

I don't see any issue where Romney has the advantage over McCain.

[Alexander I]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
And why would conservatives prefer Romney over McCain?

McCain-Feingold
McCain-Kennedy
McCain-Lieberman

McCain is perceived as a GOP "heretic" who is too buddy-buddy with liberals.

It's not so much that conservatives prefer Romney, rather, he is simply the "UnMcCain." I even heard this catchphrase: "If you're a Republican and McCain don't fit, it's your responsibility to vote for Mitt."

[snoopy369]

Why would anyone leave McCain at this point? It's not like they have to share a room or something...

Romney is seen as being more conservative than McCain. That doesn't mean it's true...

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
And why would conservatives prefer Romney over McCain?

I don't see it. If anything, the folks who are in McCain's camp might jump to Huckabee now that RudyG's folks are in.

I don't see any issue where Romney has the advantage over McCain.

The issue isn't "conservatives" in some abstract sence. The issue is Republicans in a concrete sense. Mainstream Republicans don't like McCain, for the reasons Alex I cites above and the reasons Imran and I cited in the Bye Bye Fred Thompson thread. To repeat: McCain's voting record and public statements show him not to be one of the true believers. McCain voted against extending the Bush tax cuts, for example. He's also pro-immigration reform, anti-torture, and has sponsored campaign finance reform and gun control legislation. He has, on different issues, been very publically allied with extreme liberals like Ted Kennedy (immigration) and Russ Feingold (campaign finance). The press gets all excited about Mccain in general, but if you look at the pundits who are unabashedly identified with the Republican party, that's not the case; George Will, for example, bashes him with great regularity.

A telling fact is that according to exit polls in all the contests so far, including NH, SC, and FL, McCain has yet to actually come in first among voters who identify themselves as Republican. Even in Florida -- a closed primary -- he only managed to tie Romney in this category.

[Alexander I]

Anybody see the CNN GOP debate tonight? It got nasty.

McCain tried to define Romney's record and looked really bad. That's not to say that Romney won; I don't think any of the candidates were at their best tonight. But the Senator telling lies about Romney's positions really doesn't help McCain's honesty/honor/clean guy image.

[snoopy369]

You're slightly exaggerating that lying part... mccain said:

McCain stuck to his position that Romney advocated withdrawing troops when he said in April that the U.S. and Iraqi government should have "timetables" that were not made public.

Mischaracterizing, sure, that's not lying, however, and is no different than normal politics...

[SlowwHand]

I may be backed into a corner and have to go McCain.
Still saying a McCain - Giuliani ticket is possible.
I won't vote Clinton, that a no negotiation.

[Alexander I]

Originally posted by snoopy369
You're slightly exaggerating that lying part... mccain said:

McCain stuck to his position that Romney advocated withdrawing troops when he said in April that the U.S. and Iraqi government should have "timetables" that were not made public.

Mischaracterizing, sure, that's not lying, however, and is no different than normal politics...

Maybe I'm exaggerating what lying is. I'm defining lying simply as saying something that isn't true. McCain said Romney was in favor of timetables to bring troops home, which isn't true. Romney is in favor of timetables and benchmarks for progress in Iraq.

If that is more properly defined as a mischaracterization, then that's what I mean.

[Harry Tuttle]

I would just like to offer my scholarly opinion and say that Mitt Romney is an antagonistic dick. Thank you.