The new Primary Thread

[Ramo]

I don't think voters reticent about electing women are particularly interested in black candidates. And women vote, which Clinton ably demonstrated in NH.

You're right that Sebelius and Kaine don't have foreign policy experience, but the list of candidates with a respectable amount of foreign policy experience, executive experience, and vote-getting are pretty short. DC experience is less important, both because it goes against Obama's public message, and because that's the job of the Chief of Staff (where someone like Daschle world work). Webb has executive experience, but from everything I've heard he wasn't a good Secretary of Navy, and Virginians are not particularly enthusiastic about him.

That list, IMO, basically consists of Richardson. And I'd rather see him at State than as Veep.

My gut tells me that Sebelius would be the best pick. She has an amazing knack at turning Republicans into Democrats. Warner would've been, if he weren't a shoe-in for the seat being vacated by John.

Schweitzer would be an interesting choice too.

I should also add that Sebelius reinforces Obama's message (bringing marginalized groups into the political process, anti-insider/DC, converting Republicans and Independents into Dems). It's the Clinton/Gore strategy of making the candidate's argument more coherent, as opposed to the Bush/Cheney strategy of plugging up gaps in the candidate's message.

[snoopy369]

Isn't the issue at the moment that Obama needs help to win the *nomination*... and Edwards would deliver that?

[Ramo]

The conversation moved on from that...

[Impaler[WrG]]

Perhapses we should start a "Dream Cabinet" thread.

If its a McCain vs Obama match up the Democrats will have to abandon their hopes of flipping the Southwest, Hispanics will split on lines similar to what Bush won on re-election. Instead a "New Southern Strategy" might be tried with an Obama/Edwards ticket trying to flip 3 or more states in the deep south by combining blacks and whites. If any other Republican is the nominee then Richardson FTW for either Hillary or Obama, they go on to take the southwest with ease.

[snoopy369]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080127/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_endorsement

Wonder how much the endorsement of a Florida governor helps McCain (or hurts him )

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ramo
I should also add that Sebelius reinforces Obama's message (bringing marginalized groups into the political process, anti-insider/DC, converting Republicans and Independents into Dems). It's the Clinton/Gore strategy of making the candidate's argument more coherent, as opposed to the Bush/Cheney strategy of plugging up gaps in the candidate's message.

I agree, about the strategy in general and Sebelius in particular. I guess I the concern I have is the "reassurance factor." Obama's candidacy is going to have to reach out beyond Democrats; for that to work, such candidates my need to be reassured that he's a conventional candidate, in spite of the call for change. Putting him and Sebelius up against, say, McCain and whatever conventional, experienced white boy he picks for veep may present the contrast too starkley, and send nervous voters running back to the devil they know. Pairing Obama with a nice safe white boy may help deliver the election. (Incidently, I also really like Ed Rendell in that capacity, though the Dems don't really need a Northeasterner on the ticket. But Rendell's got a great record, campaigns well, and looks and sounds like an old-school Democrat).

Of course, the GOP could play their own game of historical firsts here; I think Kay Bailey Hutchison's going to be on the veep shortlist, regardless of who gets nominated. But that wouldn't take much of teh burden off Obama to reassure independent voters.

[Ramo]

Crist (a relative moderate) was always expected to endorse McCain. I don't think this is particularly big news.

But if Jeb Bush were to formally endorse Romney (his people seem to be going that way), that'd be interesting...

[Ramo]

Hutchison would be a strong pick for Republicans. The problem for her is that she's nominally pro-choice (even if she never votes that way on judicial nominations), which doesn't reassure the base if someone not named Huckabee gets the nomination. Crist would be a strong pick too, if he gets married or does something similar to take care of the rumors that he's gay (Napolitano has a similar problem). Tim Pawlenty seems to be the consensus favorite, but he nearly lost re-election in '06.

As for Rendell, I'm not too excited about him. But maybe that makes him a good candidate. His problem wrt Obama is that he already endorsed Clinton. I don't think that he could possibly be such a good candidate that Obama would ignore that.

[Bosh]

Well who Obama would pick as Veep if he gets the nomination would depend a lot on who the Republicans nominate.

Maybe something like this:

McCain: Richardson
Romney: Warner

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ramo
As for Rendell, I'm not too excited about him. But maybe that makes him a good candidate. His problem wrt Obama is that he already endorsed Clinton. I don't think that he could possibly be such a good candidate that Obama would ignore that.

Unless he specifically reaches out to a Clintonite as a peace-making gesture, which would be savvy and classy. But I still don't think Rendell brings that much to the ticket; I just like the guy and think he's been a very good governor.

But speaking of reaching out to Clintonites, he could also go the Wes Clark route -- not a DC insider or politician (keeping with the theme of Change) but a very vocal critic of the current administration and somebody who knows a thing or two about military and foreign affairs. No idea if Clark would be receptive, but he'd be an interesting choice (and I'd expect to see him as veep if Hillary gets nominated).

[GePap]

Hillary is still leading in the national polls, and I think her organization is better equiped to handle the Feb. 5 superprimary. She has done better overall with Hispanic voyters, which outnumber black voters in the west (California) and are large in places like NJ and NY.

The dem. race is going to be close, but SC was a must win for Obama - Hillary can move on.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by GePap
Hillary is still leading in the national polls, and I think her organization is better equiped to handle the Feb. 5 superprimary. She has done better overall with Hispanic voyters, which outnumber black voters in the west (California) and are large in places like NJ and NY.

The dem. race is going to be close, but SC was a must win for Obama - Hillary can move on.

For what it's worth, Hillary's national lead is narrower than it's ever been -- just 8 points.

Super Tuesday's definitely going to be interesting. Looks like Hillary will walk away with the top prizes, NY and CA, as well as significant second-tier prize NJ. But I'd bet on Obama for IL, MN, and MA. Now give Hillary the relatively empty states in the West, Obama the somewhat bigger states in the South. Suddenly is doesn't look so likely that Super Tuesday will decide anything.

[Ramo]

I don't think that Hillary will win CA in a walk (if the race tightens nationally, I'd say that it's the main battleground), but I basically agree. Considering that delegates are awarded proportionally in every Dem primary, the pledged delegates on 2/6 are going to look a lot like the national polls on 2/5. And those national numbers will be pretty tight if there's a significant SC bounce.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Isn't the issue at the moment that Obama needs help to win the *nomination*... and Edwards would deliver that?

Edwards doesn't want the Veep again. He's good with Obama, so maybe if Obama wins, he'd get a cushy cabinet post, maybe even AG (if Hillary wins, he gets bupkis). But apparently he didn't have a good time running for Veep last time and wouldn't want to be the second fiddle. At least with a cabinet post, you can run your own department.

[Edan]

Not that it'll happen, but how about Bloomberg as Obama's VP?