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Originally posted by Oerdin
Thomas is out so it is no wonder he's polling poorly. Giuliani is dead if he doesn't win Florida and he won't.
His numbers are sinking rapidly. Good.
Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...
Romney's numbers are trending up in FL, but so were Huck's in SC (I thought Huck would pull out a victory). Romney also has to overcome an early voting deficit, so actually needs to be ahead by a few percent on election day. 'Course, he has some advantages that Huckabee didn't - his bank account, no Fred Thompson, and a few extra days.
Romney also needs Giuliani and Huckabee to do well enough tomorrow to stay viable (and still not win) to soak up McCain votes on Super Tuesday.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
I think all three health care plans (pathway to single payer, using the federal gov't's size to negotiate over drug prices, etc.) are pretty good within the context of the American political system (getting past a Senate filibuster). On this issue, Edwards seems to be the strongest (being the first to come up with the policy, and having a specific mandate poicy). Obama's and Clinton's policies are fine and very similar, but are playing irritating games with the politics (Obama has basically endorsed a mandate but is calling it something else, while Clinton doesn't have a mandate enforcement mechanism).
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
McCain 25.3
Romney 25.2
Giuliani 18.2
Huckabee 15.0
Paul 4.7
This race is obscenely close between Mitt and Mac -- still no telling which one will win. The Primary is on Tuesday, January 29th.
The Apolytoner formerly known as Alexander01
"God has given no greater spur to victory than contempt of death." - Hannibal Barca, c. 218 B.C.
"We can legislate until doomsday but that will not make men righteous." - George Albert Smith, A.D. 1949 The Kingdom of Jerusalem: Chronicles of the Golden Cross - a Crusader Kings After Action Report
Holy crap. First candidate in either primary to win an absolute majority (I'n not counting Hillary in Mich, since Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot). Beat Hillary 2-to-1, Edwards 3-to-1. Won an absolute majority of women, an absolute majority of white voters under 30, and an absolute majority of all voters under 60.
Just a thought: if the Dems nominate Obama and he puts teh South in play, it's very bad news for the GOP.
Still don't know who I'm supporting; I have 6 weeks to make up my mind, or have it made up for me.
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
*Clinton also placed first in Michigan, though her two chief competitors were not on the ballot and the state has been deprived of delegates.
Truly an interesting race.
Last edited by Alexander I; January 27, 2008, 00:18.
The Apolytoner formerly known as Alexander01
"God has given no greater spur to victory than contempt of death." - Hannibal Barca, c. 218 B.C.
"We can legislate until doomsday but that will not make men righteous." - George Albert Smith, A.D. 1949 The Kingdom of Jerusalem: Chronicles of the Golden Cross - a Crusader Kings After Action Report
That Dem delegate count doesn't particularly matter, since it includes superdelegates that are not pledged to any candidate (and already, there have been a few switches). If any candidate's winning in pledged delegates, expect superdelegates to follow suit. The current count is:
Obama: 68
Clinton: 48
Edwards: 26
Anyways, this was a huge victory for Obama. Like Clinton's victory in NH, this was exactly what he needed (an almost 30% victory margin). Obama won women outright, and wasn't shutout among white voters (he got just under a quarter). The only way this could've been better for him is if Edwards beat Clinton.
I should also add that Democratic turnout is about double its 2004 turnout, and beat this year's Republican turnout by over 10% (Obama's vote total exceeds McCain's and Huckabee's combined). In South Carolina. While this is good news for Obama, it's even better news for Democrats.
My sense is that Obama pulls into just under even with Clinton nationally within a few days.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Originally posted by Ramo
That Dem delegate count doesn't particularly matter, since it includes superdelegates that are not pledged to any candidate (and already, there have been a few switches). If any candidate's winning in pledged delegates, expect superdelegates to follow suit. The current count is:
Obama: 68
Clinton: 48
Edwards: 26
I was just about to make that point, too. And in spite of the Dems' seemingly endless capacity for stupid, self-destructive moves, I can't believe they would use the superdelegates to nominate Hillary if Obama actually won more contests on the ground. That move would tear the party apart and assure a loss regardless of whom the GOP nominated.
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
I don't think he wants Veep (or that Obama wants him as Veep). A cabinet post - either AG or Labor would be a lot more appropriate.
I think Edwards in the race for another couple weeks might actually help Obama more than dropping out and endorsing him immediately. In SC at least, Edwards split the white vote, and insured that Obama's victory margin was 30% instead of 15 or 20%. He might serve the same function in other Southern states (i.e. GA and AL)...
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Regarding Obama's Veep, I'd say Kathleen Sebelius, Janet Napolitano, Tim Kaine, or Richardson (who's an appropriate Veep for anyone).
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Originally posted by Ramo
Regarding Obama's Veep, I'd say Kathleen Sebelius, Janet Napolitano, Tim Kaine, or Richardson (who's an appropriate Veep for anyone).
The Dems are going to have enough problems with a 'black" man at the top of the ticket; I doubt they'll want a woman as veep, too. Tim Kaine would be an interesting choice (as would Mark Warner), but Obama's big vulnerability is going to be experience in negotiating the DC shark pool, as well as foreign and military affairs; governors with no DC experience won't really help out there (which also knocks out Brian Schweitzer, unfortunately). Richardson would cover those bases, though; so would Jim Webb, actually.
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
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