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  • The new Primary Thread

    Other thread fell way down, so I figured it's time for a new one...

    Primary results amused me today. Nevada:
    "Hilary Wins Nevada" claimed everywhere... yet she got 12 delegates to Obama's 13 (I assume this is the caucus system in action). I love our media and their either stupidity or spinnity.

    McCain is looking pretty strong... Romney have a shot at beating him (or Giuliani)? Huckabee can't even win S.C., so I don't imagine he has a shot...
    <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
    I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

  • #2
    Re: The new Primary Thread

    Originally posted by snoopy369
    Other thread fell way down, so I figured it's time for a new one...

    Primary results amused me today. Nevada:
    "Hilary Wins Nevada" claimed everywhere... yet she got 12 delegates to Obama's 13 (I assume this is the caucus system in action). I love our media and their either stupidity or spinnity.
    I don't think it's either stupidity or spin. The fact is (and here's something you don't read much about) delegate count doesn't matter, because of the Superdelegates. What matters is majority vote (even when it doesn't produce more delegates, as in Nevada), because that gives you a sense of who the stronger candidate overall is. So Hillary did win Nevada, in every meaningful way.

    And I must say I'm surprised by McCain's win in South Carolina. Given SC's extreme conservativism and McCain's loss there in 2000, I really didn't think he had much of a chance. He's in better shape for Super Tuesday than I thought he'd be; I thought he'd get shellacked on Feb 5, but now I'm not so sure.

    Thompson's done, though; he was counting on SC and ended up a distant third, with only about half the votes Huckabee got. My guess is that he bows out tomorrow or Monday. It'll be interesting to see who benefits from that.
    "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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    • #3
      Presumably Huckabee, as they're fairly similar candidates, no?
      <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
      I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by snoopy369
        Presumably Huckabee, as they're fairly similar candidates, no?
        I don't know. On the one hand, he's a social conservative like Huckabee. On the other hand, he was running as a Reaganite fiscal conservative (which Huckabee is not) and the only true inside-the-Beltway mainstream Republican (since McCain is too much of an independent to qualify). I could see Huckabee and Romney splitting his support, with some leftovers for Giuliani. But regardless, if he exits now it's bad news for McCain.
        "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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        • #5
          Indeed. However, if he suddenly decided he wanted to be VP, McCain would be his only option really to throw his support behind, right?
          <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
          I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


            I don't know. On the one hand, he's a social conservative like Huckabee. On the other hand, he was running as a Reaganite fiscal conservative (which Huckabee is not) and the only true inside-the-Beltway mainstream Republican (since McCain is too much of an independent to qualify). I could see Huckabee and Romney splitting his support, with some leftovers for Giuliani. But regardless, if he exits now it's bad news for McCain.
            Thompson went after Huckabee big time the last few days of the campaign, and worked hard in the evangelical places that Huckabee was counting on. He was probably the reason McCain won this race, and he only got 3% more than Huckabee.
            If you don't like reality, change it! me
            "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
            "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
            "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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            • #7
              Originally posted by GePap


              Thompson went after Huckabee big time the last few days of the campaign, and worked hard in the evangelical places that Huckabee was counting on. He was probably the reason McCain won this race, and he only got 3% more than Huckabee.
              True enough, but I also got the sense that he was the favorite candidate of K Street. I guessing that faction of his support now goes to Romney.
              "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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              • #8
                Originally posted by snoopy369
                Indeed. However, if he suddenly decided he wanted to be VP, McCain would be his only option really to throw his support behind, right?
                Even given Thompson's legendary laziness, it's hard to imagine him going after a do-nothing job like veep instead of returning to Hollywood, with its attendent fun and money.
                "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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                • #9
                  Note that Hillary won 50% of Nevada State delegates and that is whats being tauted as winning but we don't (and probably never will know) the actual popular vote totals across Nevada. Obama's campaign may be able to spin this as a win to energize his supporters. The media will not change its stance and will continue to trumpet Hillary as the victor.

                  Edwards totally collapsed and I think this will continue in SC, if his supporters go to Hillary she is in much better shape though I don't see any way for her to win when Blacks are breaking 4:1 for Obama in every contest they have participated in, this means Obama has 40% of the total SC vote already in his pocket, he must win only a sliver of white voters to reach 50%.

                  Hillary now seems to have a minority of her own which could give her a blow out on Super Tuesday, Hispanic voters who were equal in number to blacks in Nevada went for her by the same 4:1, in essence the two minorities completely canceled out. This constituency could flip Arizona in the general election if McCain is not the Republican Nominee.
                  Last edited by Impaler[WrG]; January 20, 2008, 03:04.
                  Companions the creator seeks, not corpses, not herds and believers. Fellow creators, the creator seeks - those who write new values on new tablets. Companions the creator seeks, and fellow harvesters; for everything about him is ripe for the harvest. - Thus spoke Zarathustra, Fredrick Nietzsche

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
                    Note that Hillary won 50% of Nevada State delegates and that is whats being tauted as winning but we don't (and probably never will know) the actual popular vote totals across Nevada. Obama's campaign may be able to spin this as a win to energize his supporters. The media will not change its stance and will continue to trumpet Hillary as the victor.
                    Obama's campaign is already spinning it that way, which is appropriate. And, of course, he remains ahead in the delegate count, and will widen that gap after SC, if the polls are corect (big "if" after NH). This is easily the most exciting election in memory.

                    Edwards totally collapsed and I think this will continue in SC, if his supporters go to Hillary she is in much better shape though I don't see any way for her to win when Blacks are breaking 4:1 for Obama in every contest they have participated in, this means Obama has 40% of the total SC vote already in his pocket, he must win only a sliver of white voters to reach 50%.
                    Predicting where Edwards' support will go is tough. He's got both progressives and old-style New Dealers supporting him; my guess would be the progressives go to Obama, the paleoliberals to Clinton, making it a wash.

                    Hillary now seems to have a minority of her own which could give her a blow out on Super Tuesday, Hispanic voters who were equal in number to blacks in Nevada went for her by the same 4:1, in essence the two minorities completely canceled out. This constituency could flip Arizona in the general election if McCain is not the Republican Nominee.
                    It would do more than swing Arizona (and NM, which the Dems took in 2000 but lost in 2004, iirc). It would make Colorado and Nevada competitive, and would even force the GOP to spend money in ultra-safe Texas. Bush took 35% of the Hispanic vote in 2000, and 45% in 2004; this year, I'd be surprised if the GOP candidate took 30%. The drop from 45% to 30% would represent at least 1.5 million voters moving from one column to the other; that would have been just about enough to defeat the GOP in 2004, when they had an incumbent president with an approval rating over 50%. I have to assume it would be devastating this year. If the GOP lose in the fall, it's going to have as much to do with them resisting Bush's moderation on immigration as it will with embracing his fantasies of empire.

                    Like I said, easily the most interesting election in memory.
                    "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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                    • #11
                      Bush campaigned hard for the Mexican National vote in 2000/2004, then prompty stabbed them in the back in 2005. Even they hated the senate bill. There is no way that they'll vote Republican now, even if someone stepped up and started promising them the same things that Bush did.

                      If a 20% compound interest growth of immigration every year is the moderate position, I shudder to think of what the hard left position on immigration is.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
                        Note that Hillary won 50% of Nevada State delegates and that is whats being tauted as winning but we don't (and probably never will know) the actual popular vote totals across Nevada. Obama's campaign may be able to spin this as a win to energize his supporters. The media will not change its stance and will continue to trumpet Hillary as the victor.
                        What are you talking about? It's pretty clear thatHillary won the popular vote, but lost the delegate count because Obama did better is smaller sites spread around the state. Thus the Obama's campaign saying that their delegate victory showed they could run a campaign that appealed to individuals all across the states.

                        If the votes from NH and now Neveda are indicative of how the different democratic constituencies will break for each of the candidates, it bodes better for Hillary in the long run than Obama - if Hillary keeps winning the votes of white women and gets a much bigger chunk of the Hispanic vote than Obama, that will propel her to victory in places like NY, NJ, Illinois, and California, while she might lose in the South to Obama.
                        If you don't like reality, change it! me
                        "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                        "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                        "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Whoha
                          Bush campaigned hard for the Mexican National vote in 2000/2004, then prompty stabbed them in the back in 2005. Even they hated the senate bill. There is no way that they'll vote Republican now, even if someone stepped up and started promising them the same things that Bush did.

                          If a 20% compound interest growth of immigration every year is the moderate position, I shudder to think of what the hard left position on immigration is.
                          I am in favor of completely free and open immegration.

                          JM
                          Jon Miller-
                          I AM.CANADIAN
                          GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                          • #14


                            What are you talking about? It's pretty clear thatHillary won the popular vote, but lost the delegate count because Obama did better is smaller sites spread around the state. Thus the Obama's campaign saying that their delegate victory showed they could run a campaign that appealed to individuals all across the states.
                            The results that the media reported were state delegates (there are about 10,000 of them), where Clinton has a 6% edge. And the state delegates are grouped in such a way to give Obama a 13-12 edge in national delegates. But we have no idea what the popular vote total is (though I'd bet on a narrow Clinton victory).

                            Clinton looks really, really good for 2/5. Obama needs to rebuild his coalition and win white liberals, and needs to do better on Latino outreach. Luckily for him, he has a cushion of SC to revamp his style a bit. But CA looks like it'll determine the nominee, and Clinton probably has a significant lead today

                            McCain is looking better after winning SC, but he still has a problem with Republicans; in all five states thus far, he has consistently lost them. He's going to get hurt in upcoming states with closed primaries. After blowing everyone out in NV, and racking up delegates in MI and WY, Romney should be considered the Republican frontrunner. But the media hates Romney and loves McCain, so he's screwed.

                            Also, yesterday boded well for Democrats generally. In NV, over 2.5 times more Democrats turned out than Republicans. Like in IA, turnout for the Dems exceeded all expectations (in NH, turnout met very high expectations). In SC, where Indies made up only 18% of the electorate (meaning that the Dem participation is likely to be significant), McCain got a hundred thousand fewer votes than he did in his resounding loss in 2000.

                            'Course, the McCain candidacy (and therefore his SC win) is probably bad for the Dems. I'm still convinced that it's less likely that McCain would win the nomination than not-McCain.
                            "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                            -Bokonon

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Jon Miller


                              I am in favor of completely free and open immigration.

                              JM
                              There is little distinction over what exactly the growth to infinity is.

                              As to the primaries, there is little reason to push anyone out just yet, everyone can stay in atleast until february 5th.
                              Last edited by Whoha; January 20, 2008, 15:31.

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