The new Primary Thread

[Dinner]

Here's one Californian who will be voting for Obama.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Here's one Californian who will be voting for Obama.

Count again.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Edan
Not that it'll happen, but how about Bloomberg as Obama's VP?

My kneejerk reaction is that this would be a good thing. Obama's strongest suit (fresh face; outsider; change) is also his weakest suit (lack of experience). If he tries to counterbalance his weaksuit by picking a longtime Washington insider, he dillutes his main message.

Bloomberg can bring a track record of success and also emphasize Obama's willingness to reach out to independants and Republicans. Bloomberg should like the idea because it gives him a launching pad for a future run at the Presidency. (Democratic kingmakers will hate the idea. )

[Ramo]

Bloomberg would be an interesting pick. He has indie cred, a record of administrative competence, basically liberal positions, warm relations with Obama, and unlimited cash. And non-Muslim/Mormon/atheist religious diversity is probably an electoral plus (may help in FL). His big problem, IMO, is geography (adding a New Yorker to a Dem ticket doesn't exactly expand the map).

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Obama takes SC by 55%!!!

Holy crap. First candidate in either primary to win an absolute majority (I'n not counting Hillary in Mich, since Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot). Beat Hillary 2-to-1, Edwards 3-to-1. Won an absolute majority of women, an absolute majority of white voters under 30, and an absolute majority of all voters under 60.

Just a thought: if the Dems nominate Obama and he puts teh South in play, it's very bad news for the GOP.

Still don't know who I'm supporting; I have 6 weeks to make up my mind, or have it made up for me.

THE B1TCH GOT B1TCH-SLAPPED

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ramo
[Bloomberg's] big problem, IMO, is geography (adding a New Yorker to a Dem ticket doesn't exactly expand the map).

...unless you consider how many Floridians are New York retirees.

[Ramo]

That didn't seem to do Giuliani any good...

Related to my recommendation of Sebelius for Obama's Veep, it turns out she'll endorse Obama after giving the Dem response to the SOTU on Monday:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/sebelius_plans_to_endorse_obam.php

KS is a Super Tuesday state, BTW.

It's interesting that Obama has lined up some of high profile women: Napolitano, McCaskill, Sebelius. Clinton is only slightly ahead among Senators and Governors: Feinstein, Cantwell, Granholm, and Miner. Boxer looks like she'd be a key endorsment...

[MarkG]

so why is edwards still in the race? does he have any chance?

[Bosh]

Edwards is in the race to try to goad Clinton and Obama to the left. At least I think that's the rationale.
Or he just likes to see his face on TV.

[snoopy369]

Or to keep his name out there for VP...

[Edan]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


My kneejerk reaction is that this would be a good thing. Obama's strongest suit (fresh face; outsider; change) is also his weakest suit (lack of experience). If he tries to counterbalance his weaksuit by picking a longtime Washington insider, he dillutes his main message.

Bloomberg can bring a track record of success and also emphasize Obama's willingness to reach out to independants and Republicans. Bloomberg should like the idea because it gives him a launching pad for a future run at the Presidency. (Democratic kingmakers will hate the idea. )

I'm not sure Bloomberg is a washington insider. He does have buisness experience - good if the economy is an issue. He's also another person who is reletively independent and less partisan than the old guard. And he can bring in a lot of money to the campaign.

But bloomberg will be like 70+ in 8 years, so it seems unlikely to start a presidential career.

[Admiral]

Edwards is just out for delegates now, so he can try to play kingmaker at the convention. But the interesting effect is that he can only pick up delegates in areas where Clinton would do well. So if he can convince people to still vote for him, it may make Obama more in play in states like Tennessee and Missouri.

[Alexander I]

Current “Medal” and Delegate Count

Republicans:
McCain: 3 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze, 97 Delegates
Romney: 3 Gold, 3 Silver, 74 Delegates
Huckabee: 1 Gold, 1 Silver, 2 Bronze, 29 Delegates
Paul: 1 Silver, 6 Delegates
Thompson (Out): 1 Silver, 2 Bronze, 0 Delegates
Giuliani (Out): 1 Bronze, 2 Delegates
Hunter (Out): 1 Bronze, 0 Delegates

Democrats:
Obama: 2* Gold, 2 Silver, 158 Delegates
Clinton: 2 Gold, 1* Silver, 1 Bronze, 232 Delegates
Edwards (Out): 1 Silver, 3* Bronze, 62 Delegates

*Clinton also placed first in Michigan and Florida, though her two chief competitors took their names off the ballot in Michigan and both states have been deprived of delegates by the DNC. Obama placed 2nd and Edwards 3rd in Florida.

Looks like at this point it's down to a 4-person race between Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney.

[Ramo]

Absent a miracle, Romney's dead and buried. McCain has a huge cushion of winner take all states in the NE (thanks to Rudy) and a significant edge in large states like CA, as well as AZ. Romney gets Utah, a plurality of delegates in MA, a significant minority in CA and other some states, and maybe gets lucky in a few Western caucuses. Huckabee siphons off conservatives in the South and Midwest. So McCain ends up with a two or three to one edge in delegates on Feb. 6.

Romney could make it interesting if he blows another huge chunk of his kids' inheritance on vicious negative ads, but I don't think that could close the deficit.

[Alexander I]

Nah, it's Huckabee that's dead and buried. Romney's campaign may well be dead, but it won't be buried until he stops spending and/or conservatives start liking John McCain.