The College Football Thread 2006

[Drake Tungsten]

And Rutgers would kick around Missouri.

[Eroberer]

In other football news, the 2006 season has claimed its first head coaching job (I believe) in UNC's John Bunting. The guy compiled something like a 0.300 losing record, from my memory. Imran may be happy to know that Greg Schiano is listed as a possible replacement.

Bunting always recruited pretty well. If you look on Scout.com and such, UNC would usually have a top 30 class for the year or even much better. Things never came together for him on the field, though. Even though Bunting was an NFL (Super Bowl winning) Defensive Coordinator, UNC's defense always looked particularly anemic on the field.

Here's a link to the discussion. I guess it's just interesting to read through the replacement candidates, even if we don't know how comprehensive this is: http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/582329.html

[reismark]

Originally posted by Eroberer
Imran may be happy to know that Greg Schiano is listed as a possible replacement.

Except that even if Schiano were to get the offer, I'm sure he'd say "Thanks, but no thanks." Even if Rutgers loses to West Virginia and/or Louisville this year, it's obvious that they're on the verge of something big, and I'm sure Schiano would want to stick around for it instead of starting at square one again.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Schiano isn't going to take UNC. I mean, it's UNC! We aren't talking Miami here.

Though he may take that Ray Rice train (thanks Syracuse!) and try to parlay that into a nice payday when Rice declares for the NFL.

[Donegeal]

Here is (another) example of why the BCS should be the BSC (Bull Sh*t Champion)

All 3 of the Human polls have Texas and Louisville at 5 & 6. The BSC has them at 7 and 8.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It's the computers... IIRC, they have Rutgers at 6, which is silly.

[Donegeal]

Nope. Rutgers is at 14 in the BSC. 16 in the AP and Coaches. 15 in the Harris.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I wrong, it was actually 7th (still bad though)!! Silly computers

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSStandings?week=2

[reismark]

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 2

My apologies for not getting your BCS fix out with the first week of the listings last week. Blame it on the usual real-life crap and such.

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking. For the full listing, check ESPN, which provides a more detailed breakdown than the "official" listing at FOX Sports.

1. Ohio State [1, 1, 3]
2. Michigan [2, 3, T1] (+1)
3. Southern California [3, 2, T1] (-1)
4. West Virginia [4, 4, 14] (+1)
5. Auburn [7, 7, 6] (-1)
6. Florida [9, 8, 4]
7. Texas [5, 5, 13] (+2)
8. Louisville [6, 6, 9] (-1)
9. Notre Dame [10, 10, 8] (-1)
10. California-Berkeley [11, 12, 5]
11. Tennessee [8, 9, 11]
12. Clemson [12, 11, 15]
13. Arkansas [14, 13, 10]
14. Rutgers [15, 16, 7] (+2)
15. Boise State [16, 15, 12]
16. Louisiana State [13, 13, 20] (+2)

With a lot of close games in the top 25 this past weekend, it was a weekend of slight adjustments rather than major ones. The big story continues to be the wide disparity between the human polls and the computer rankings, usually (in my opinion) to the computers' fault. It's a widely held belief that the SEC is a far more challenging conference with more extensive parity than the Pac-10 (born out by Arkansas being the only team in the twelve-team SEC to be undefeated in conference play, while the Pac-10 has two in ten, Cal & USC) and yet the SEC continues to play second-fiddle to the Pac-10 in the BCS. It's an injustice that will hopefully be corrected in USC's case in the next month by one of Oregon, Cal, or Notre Dame.

The other big injustice of the week: Clemson dominates a tough Georgia Tech team, and gets absolutely no bounce up the rankings from it whatsoever despite both Tennessee and Cal needing last-second or overtime efforts to survive. As much as the ACC as a whole is down this year, Clemson proved with this one that they're among the elite and deserved the recognition as such, especially considering that if things play out to the chalk, that missed extra-point in double overtime against Boston College could come back to haunt them.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Teams with an equal number of losses are considered to be in the same tier. (This means that a 3-0 record in conference play would be just as good as a 5-0 record and better than a 4-1 record for the purposes of projections.) Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths (for conferences that do not have title games) or bids to conference title games. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, or in the instance where the two teams projected to meet for a conference title have the same record in conference play, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

MAJOR CONFERENCES
ACC: Boston College (def. Georgia Tech)
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Texas (def. Missouri)
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Arkansas (def. Florida)

OTHER BIDS
Non-BCS Conference Auto Bid: None
Other Auto Bids: Michigan (Big Ten; #2)
At-Large Entries: Auburn (SEC), Louisville (Big East), Notre Dame (Independent)

The big question with these projections (for the next few weeks, likely) will probably be, how can Ohio State & Michigan end up #1 and #2 if they finish their regular seasons against each other? While the logical knee-jerk reaction would be that the loser would drop out of national championship game positioning, it's actually quite possible (especially if Ohio State is the one to lose, and in close fashion) that the drop would be enough for them to still get a title game shot. The caveat to this is that both teams would have to win out prior to the Big Game and that USC (the only team who's a threat to either Ohio State or Michigan at this point) would have to lose somewhere along the way; a prospect I personally consider quite likely to play out in both regards. The precedent for this, by the way, is Oklahoma's 2003 Big 12 title game annihilation at the hands of Kansas State, which wasn't even enough to knock them out of the #1 BCS slot!

Another question to consider is that of Notre Dame. In the new by-laws, they must finish #8 or higher for a slot in the BCS to be guaranteed. However, if at-large bids are available, the eligibility standards are the same for them as everybody else (nine wins, top 14 BCS finish) - with the difference being that the likelihood of Notre Dame being chosen at-large is far greater due to its national profile compared to, say, Louisville. So barring a major upset (Navy presents their last test of any form before the USC game Thanksgiving weekend), Notre Dame is good to go BCS-wise.

The team in the most trouble, however, is Florida. With Auburn ahead of them in the BCS rankings and the projected conference winner behind them in the rankings, it is likely imperative that Florida win the SEC title game in order to get into a bowl game, since BCS by-laws limit conferences to two BCS entries regardless of ranking. That win over Tennessee grows larger in importance as the weeks pass by.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
National Championship Game: Ohio State v. Michigan
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Boston College v. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas v. West Virginia

Big Ten champion Ohio State & Big Ten auto-entry Michigan are automatically placed into the National Championship Game due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. Pac-10 champion Southern California is placed into the Rose Bowl, SEC champion Arkansas is placed into the Sugar Bowl, ACC champion Boston College is placed into the Orange Bowl, and Big 12 champion Texas is placed into the Fiesta Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins.

Since the Rose Bowl loses one of its conference champions to the title game, it gets to replace that team before the other bowls make their selections. It chooses independent at-large Notre Dame to be its second representative. (The Rose Bowl, according to BCS by-laws, gets top priority over all BCS games other than the National Championship Game in filling its vacancies.)

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's proximity to the National Championship Game in scheduling, with games scheduled nearer to the Championship Game receiving higher priority. Based on this, the BCS has established the following priority order for this year's bowls:

1. Sugar Bowl
2. Orange Bowl
3. Fiesta Bowl

The new BCS by-laws do not impose restrictions on selecting teams for final allocations in the vein like "conference champions cannot be listed last" as in previous years. Hence, it is prudent to presume that the remaining selections will be made in order of BCS rankings (with exceptions made where needed to avoid matching teams from the same conference against each other). Fortunately, this is not needed here: Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Sugar Bowl, SEC at-large Auburn is selected by the Orange Bowl, and Big East at-large Louisville is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

It is possible that the conferences, Notre Dame and the BCS would agree to move Notre Dame out of the Rose Bowl in order to provide a different matchup other than a repeat of the season-ending matchup between Notre Dame and Southern California. The likelihood of the Rose Bowl strongly resisting such a move, however, is quite high. Also note that for obvious reasons, no shifting would be made to affect the National Championship Game, even if (as projected) it involves the meeting of two teams from the same conference.

[MRT144]

how would osu and michigan play one another for the national bid after one team loses to one another?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Oklahoma's 2003 Big 12 title game annihilation at the hands of Kansas State, which wasn't even enough to knock them out of the #1 BCS slot!

IIRC, after 2003, the conferences tweaked things to lower the chance of this from occuring, especially by weighing the human polls more than the computers (2/3 compared to 1/2 for the human polls). Therefore, if Ohio State did drop to, say, 4 in the human polls if they lost to Michigan, chances are they wouldn't be saved by the computer rankings, even if they were still #1 in the computers. Though the votes (which is what the BCS actually counts) could be close enough that it is possible, though very, very unlikely.

[reismark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Though the votes (which is what the BCS actually counts) could be close enough that it is possible, though very, very unlikely.

Which is exactly why I still gotta call it by the book until we actually get to the Big Game. There's still that chance, albeit a small one, and I've always promised myself I would never make assumptions when I do this - just take the BCS at face value. Fortunately, the Big Game will happen early enough so that we'll know what the deal is long before stuff gets finalized.

[Donegeal]

If for some chance OSU and Mich do play for the National Championship, why on earth would the Big 10 elect Notre Dame to represent them? I would think they'd go with big 10 #3 (Wisconsin ).

[reismark]

Originally posted by Donegeal
If for some chance OSU and Mich do play for the National Championship, why on earth would the Big 10 elect Notre Dame to represent them? I would think they'd go with big 10 #3 (Wisconsin ).

Because as I mentioned in regards to Florida, no conference is permitted more than two BCS berths. So Wisconsin could finish #3 in the BCS behind Ohio State & Michigan, and they still wouldn't get in. In other words, don't be making any BCS plans, even if you guys win out.

[MRT144]

gah, the bcs is so flawed!