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  • The rest of it.
    We had a two-party system from the founding of our country, in 1867. That two-party system began to break up in the period from 1911 to 1935. Ever since then, five political elements have come and gone. We've always had at least three parties. But even when parties come back, they're not really new. They're just an older party re-appearing under a different name and different circumstances.

    Let me take a conventional look at these five parties. I'll describe them in terms that fit your own party system, the left/right kind of terms.

    Let's take the New Democratic Party, the NDP, which won 21 seats. The NDP could be described as basically a party of liberal Democrats, but it's actually worse than that, I have to say. And forgive me jesting again, but the NDP is kind of proof that the Devil lives and interferes in the affairs of men.

    This party believes not just in large government and in massive redistributive programs, it's explicitly socialist. On social value issues, it believes the opposite on just about everything that anybody in this room believes. I think that's a pretty safe bet on all social-value kinds of questions.

    Some people point out that there is a small element of clergy in the NDP. Yes, this is true. But these are clergy who, while very committed to the church, believe that it made a historic error in adopting Christian theology.

    The NDP is also explicitly a branch of the Canadian Labour Congress, which is by far our largest labour group, and explicitly radical.

    There are some moderate and conservative labour organizations. They don't belong to that particular organization.

    The second party, the Liberal party, is by far the largest party. It won the election. It's also the only party that's competitive in all parts of the country. The Liberal party is our dominant party today, and has been for 100 years. It's governed almost all of the last hundred years, probably about 75 per cent of the time.

    It's not what you would call conservative Democrat; I think that's a disappearing kind of breed. But it's certainly moderate Democrat, a type of Clinton-pragmatic Democrat. It's moved in the last few years very much to the right on fiscal and economic concerns, but still believes in government intrusion in the economy where possible, and does, in its majority, believe in fairly liberal social values.

    In the last Parliament, it enacted comprehensive gun control, well beyond, I think, anything you have. Now we'll have a national firearms registration system, including all shotguns and rifles. Many other kinds of weapons have been banned. It believes in gay rights, although it's fairly cautious. It's put sexual orientation in the Human Rights Act and will let the courts do the rest.

    There is an important caveat to its liberal social values. For historic reasons that I won't get into, the Liberal party gets the votes of most Catholics in the country, including many practising Catholics. It does have a significant Catholic, social-conservative element which occasionally disagrees with these kinds of policy directions. Although I caution you that even this Catholic social conservative element in the Liberal party is often quite liberal on economic issues.

    Then there is the Progressive Conservative party, the PC party, which won only 20 seats. Now, the term Progressive Conservative will immediately raise suspicions in all of your minds. It should. It's obviously kind of an oxymoron. But actually, its origin is not progressive in the modern sense. The origin of the term "progressive'' in the name stems from the Progressive Movement in the 1920s, which was similar to that in your own country.

    But the Progressive Conservative is very definitely liberal Republican. These are people who are moderately conservative on economic matters, and in the past have been moderately liberal, even sometimes quite liberal on social policy matters.

    In fact, before the Reform Party really became a force in the late '80s, early '90s, the leadership of the Conservative party was running the largest deficits in Canadian history. They were in favour of gay rights officially, officially for abortion on demand. Officially -- what else can I say about them? Officially for the entrenchment of our universal, collectivized, health-care system and multicultural policies in the constitution of the country.

    At the leadership level anyway, this was a pretty liberal group. This explains one of the reasons why the Reform party has become such a power.

    The Reform party is much closer to what you would call conservative Republican, which I'll get to in a minute.

    The Bloc Quebecois, which I won't spend much time on, is a strictly Quebec party, strictly among the French-speaking people of Quebec. It is an ethnic separatist party that seeks to make Quebec an independent, sovereign nation.

    By and large, the Bloc Quebecois is centre-left in its approach. However, it is primarily an ethnic coalition. It's always had diverse elements. It does have an element that is more on the right of the political spectrum, but that's definitely a minority element.

    Let me say a little bit about the Reform party because I want you to be very clear on what the Reform party is and is not.

    The Reform party, although described by many of its members, and most of the media, as conservative, and conservative in the American sense, actually describes itself as populist. And that's the term its leader, Preston Manning, uses.

    This term is not without significance. The Reform party does stand for direct democracy, which of course many American conservatives do, but also it sees itself as coming from a long tradition of populist parties of Western Canada, not all of which have been conservative.

    It also is populist in the very real sense, if I can make American analogies to it -- populist in the sense that the term is sometimes used with Ross Perot.

    The Reform party is very much a leader-driven party. It's much more a real party than Mr. Perot's party -- by the way, it existed before Mr. Perot's party. But it's very much leader-driven, very much organized as a personal political vehicle. Although it has much more of a real organization than Mr. Perot does.

    But the Reform party only exists federally. It doesn't exist at the provincial level here in Canada. It really exists only because Mr. Manning is pursuing the position of prime minister. It doesn't have a broader political mandate than that yet. Most of its members feel it should, and, in their minds, actually it does.

    It also has some Buchananist tendencies. I know there are probably many admirers of Mr. Buchanan here, but I mean that in the sense that there are some anti-market elements in the Reform Party. So far, they haven't been that important, because Mr. Manning is, himself, a fairly orthodox economic conservative.

    The predecessor of the Reform party, the Social Credit party, was very much like this. Believing in funny money and control of banking, and a whole bunch of fairly non-conservative economic things.

    So there are some non-conservative tendencies in the Reform party, but, that said, the party is clearly the most economically conservative party in the country. It's the closest thing we have to a neo-conservative party in that sense.

    It's also the most conservative socially, but it's not a theocon party, to use the term. The Reform party does favour the use of referendums and free votes in Parliament on moral issues and social issues.

    The party is led by Preston Manning, who is a committed, evangelical Christian. And the party in recent years has made some reference to family values and to family priorities. It has some policies that are definitely social-conservative, but it's not explicitly so.

    Many members are not, the party officially is not, and, frankly, the party has had a great deal of trouble when it's tried to tackle those issues.

    Last year, when we had the Liberal government putting the protection of sexual orientation in our Human Rights Act, the Reform Party was opposed to that, but made a terrible mess of the debate. In fact, discredited itself on that issue, not just with the conventional liberal media, but even with many social conservatives by the manner in which it mishandled that.

    So the social conservative element exists. Mr. Manning is a Christian, as are most of the party's senior people. But it's not officially part of the party. The party hasn't quite come to terms with how that fits into it.

    That's the conventional analysis of the party system.

    Let me turn to the non-conventional analysis, because frankly, it's impossible, with just left/right terminology to explain why we would have five parties, or why we would have four parties on the conventional spectrum. Why not just two?

    The reason is regional division, which you'll see if you carefully look at a map. Let me draw the United States comparison, a comparison with your history.

    The party system that is developing here in Canada is a party system that replicates the antebellum period, the pre-Civil War period of the United States.

    That's not to say -- and I would never be quoted as saying -- we're headed to a civil war. But we do have a major secession crisis, obviously of a very different nature than the secession crisis you had in the 1860s. But the dynamics, the political and partisan dynamics of this, are remarkably similar.

    The Bloc Quebecois is equivalent to your Southern secessionists, Southern Democrats, states rights activists. The Bloc Quebecois, its 44 seats, come entirely from the province of Quebec. But even more strikingly, they come from ridings, or election districts, almost entirely populated by the descendants of the original European French settlers.

    The Liberal party has 26 seats in Quebec. Most of these come from areas where there are heavy concentrations of English, aboriginal or ethnic votes. So the Bloc Quebecois is very much an ethnic party, but it's also a secession party.

    In the referendum two years ago, the secessionists won 49 per cent of the vote, 49.5 per cent. So this is a very real crisis. We're looking at another referendum before the turn of the century.

    The Progressive Conservative party is very much comparable to the Whigs of the 1850s and 1860s. What is happening to them is very similar to the Whigs. A moderate conservative party, increasingly under stress because of the secession movement, on the one hand, and the reaction to that movement from harder line English Canadians on the other hand.

    You may recall that the Whigs, in their dying days, went through a series of metamorphoses. They ended up as what was called the Unionist movement that won some of the border states in your 1860 election.

    If you look at the surviving PC support, it's very much concentrated in Atlantic Canada, in the provinces to the east of Quebec. These are very much equivalent to the United States border states. They're weak economically. They have very grim prospects if Quebec separates. These people want a solution at almost any cost. And some of the solutions they propose would be exactly that.

    They also have a small percentage of seats in Quebec. These are French-speaking areas that are also more moderate and very concerned about what would happen in a secession crisis.

    The Liberal party is very much your northern Democrat, or mainstream Democratic party, a party that is less concessionary to the secessionists than the PCs, but still somewhat concessionary. And they still occupy the mainstream of public opinion in Ontario, which is the big and powerful province, politically and economically, alongside Quebec.

    The Reform party is very much a modern manifestation of the Republican movement in Western Canada; the U.S. Republicans started in the western United States. The Reform Party is very resistant to the agenda and the demands of the secessionists, and on a very deep philosophical level.

    The goal of the secessionists is to transform our country into two nations, either into two explicitly sovereign countries, or in the case of weaker separatists, into some kind of federation of two equal partners.

    The Reform party opposes this on all kinds of grounds, but most important, Reformers are highly resistant philosophically to the idea that we will have an open, modern, multi-ethnic society on one side of the line, and the other society will run on some set of ethnic-special-status principles. This is completely unacceptable, particularly to philosophical conservatives in the Reform party.

    The Reform party's strength comes almost entirely from the West. It's become the dominant political force in Western Canada. And it is getting a substantial vote in Ontario. Twenty per cent of the vote in the last two elections. But it has not yet broken through in terms of the number of seats won in Ontario.

    This is a very real political spectrum, lining up from the Bloc to reform. You may notice I didn't mention the New Democratic Party. The NDP obviously can't be compared to anything pre-Civil War. But the NDP is not an important player on this issue. Its views are somewhere between the liberals and conservatives. Its main concern, of course, is simply the left-wing agenda to basically disintegrate our society in all kinds of spectrums. So it really doesn't fit in.

    But I don't use this comparison of the pre-Civil War lightly. Preston Manning, the leader of the Reform party has spent a lot of time reading about pre-Civil War politics. He compares the Reform party himself to the Republican party of that period. He is very well-read on Abraham Lincoln and a keen follower and admirer of Lincoln.

    I know Mr. Manning very well. I would say that next to his own father, who is a prominent Western Canadian politician, Abraham Lincoln has probably had more effect on Mr. Manning's political philosophy than any individual politician.

    Obviously, the issue here is not slavery, but the appeasement of ethnic nationalism. For years, we've had this Quebec separatist movement. For years, we elected Quebec prime ministers to deal with that, Quebec prime ministers who were committed federalists who would lead us out of the wilderness. For years, we have given concessions of various kinds of the province of Quebec, political and economic, to make them happier.

    This has not worked. The sovereignty movement has continued to rise in prominence. And its demands have continued to increase. It began to hit the wall when what are called the soft separatists and the conventional political establishment got together to put in the constitution something called "a distinct society clause.'' Nobody really knows what it would mean, but it would give the Supreme Court, where Quebec would have a tremendous role in appointment, the power to interpret Quebec's special needs and powers, undefined elsewhere.

    This has led to a firewall of resistance across the country. It fuelled the growth of the Reform party. I should even say that the early concessionary people, like Pierre Trudeau, have come out against this. So there's even now an element of the Quebec federalists themselves who will no longer accept this.

    So you see the syndrome we're in. The separatists continue to make demands. They're a powerful force. They continue to have the bulk of the Canadian political establishment on their side. The two traditional parties, the Liberals and PCs, are both led by Quebecers who favour concessionary strategies. The Reform party is a bastion of resistance to this tendency.

    To give you an idea of how divided the country is, not just in Quebec but how divided the country is outside Quebec on this, we had a phenomenon five years ago. This is a real phenomenon; I don't know how much you heard about it.

    The establishment came down with a constitutional package which they put to a national referendum. The package included distinct society status for Quebec and some other changes, including some that would just horrify you, putting universal Medicare in our constitution, and feminist rights, and a whole bunch of other things.

    What was significant about this was that this constitutional proposal was supported by the entire Canadian political establishment. By all of the major media. By the three largest traditional parties, the PC, Liberal party and NDP. At the time, the Bloc and Reform were very small.

    It was supported by big business, very vocally by all of the major CEOs of the country. The leading labour unions all supported it. Complete consensus. And most academics.

    And it was defeated. It literally lost the national referendum against a rag-tag opposition consisting of a few dissident conservatives and a few dissident socialists.

    This gives you some idea of the split that's taking place in the country.

    Canada is, however, a troubled country politically, not socially. This is a country that we like to say works in practice but not in theory.

    You can walk around this country without running across very many of these political controversies.

    I'll end there and take any of your questions. But let me conclude by saying, good luck in your own battles. Let me just remind you of something that's been talked about here. As long as there are exams, there will always be prayer in schools.
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    • Thanks NYE. Interesting read.
      What?

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      • It's certainly... strange.

        He gave that speech at a time when he was down and disillusioned about.. just about everything. The shots at Manning and Reform indicate that (he left politics due to problems with the direction of Reform, or something like that). He came back to lead CA, then annexed the Tories, then very nearly quit again after Martin's victory.

        I can understand why a lot of people are apprehensive about him. He's had a colourful past, and has had problems with wearing his feelings on his sleeve.

        He is however, smarter and better educated than 99% of the rest of Parliament. We haven't had a candidate as cerebral since Trudeau (except maybe Campbell, and we never really got a chance to know her).

        I think he'll make an interesting PM, if he wins the only poll that matters. He's changed a lot in 10 years. I trust the voters to judge if he has changed enough.
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        • Afterall, that is really what this election is about, isn't it?

          The Liberals have done real harm, but is that Harper guy ready for the job? Has he changed enough? Has he come to understand the subtleties of the country, and not just the fiscally conservative bits he's from? Do we want this guy at the helm during a referendum? Do we trust him with the sacred cows?

          10 days to go, and a very interesting finish to come.
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          • Originally posted by notyoueither

            He is however, smarter and better educated than 99% of the rest of Parliament. We haven't had a candidate as cerebral since Trudeau (except maybe Campbell, and we never really got a chance to know her).
            A lot of people questioned Manning's agenda, but few questioned his brains.


            Random thoughts:

            Great. Two messed up ridings with the candidate basically being disowned by their own party. Just a coincidence that both are in BC I'm sure.

            Meanwhile, there is a sea change going on in the country with talk of the possibility of the Conservatives eaking out a majority, and I have a disgraced Liberal leading a disgraced NDP in my riding.

            I worked the last election as a returning officer. Sure was an education. Real election votes get more messy and and even potentially counted less accurate than you might think. Some ballots are clearly spoiled, most are clean, but there are always a few in the grey zone.

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            • Originally posted by Richelieu
              I won't debate you on that: it's ****ty. Still miles away from Chretien though.
              As you wish. Everyone is free to have his own definition of corruption. In my book, when the PM of a countrey runs a company in a fiscal paradise (and uses his legislative influence to allow the system to continue unabated), it's no better than the sponsorship scandal.
              In Soviet Russia, Fake borises YOU.

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              • Thinking of it, am I the only one who doesn't give a **** about the sponsorship scandal? Like it or not, just about every government in history has its little story of handing millions to its potentate base.

                Given how rich we actually are, I believe it's more important to judge a government on its legislative record, rather than to stupidly moan about the 0,0001% of the budget that went to arcane friends.

                The Tories, if they can form a long lasting majority, will just end up doing the same. They'll buy billions of stuff for the military, and I'm willing to bet someone in the Cabinet will land a job in whatever military corporation board with a 2m/year pay when the Libs come back in.

                When the time comes, I'll judge them on what they did to improve Canada, not on that few millions that flew away to a Swiss bank account.
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                • I also happen to fear a Conservative majority. Somehow I expect Harper to be much more sensible and intelligent in his dealing with Quebec, which will hurt the separatist movement. Boisclair is an empty balloon. Harper has the cleverness to deflate him like he was a schoolboy.

                  Boisclair leader of the PQ is any federalist's dream come true. Dark days ahead for us.
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                  • Originally posted by notyoueither
                    He is however, smarter and better educated than 99% of the rest of Parliament. We haven't had a candidate as cerebral since Trudeau (except maybe Campbell, and we never really got a chance to know her).
                    Give us a break. There's nothing that indicates he's particularly intelligent, or more intelligent than any other Canadian political leader.
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                    • Many things you can say about Harper. Stupid is not one of them.
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                      • True, but neither is brilliant.
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                        • Hapless PM can't trip up Harper
                          Jan. 13, 2006. 05:38 AM
                          CHANTAL HÉBERT

                          What's wrong with this picture? On Wednesday night in Scarborough, Liberal leader Paul Martin launched his fiercest attack of the campaign on Stephen Harper, describing his Conservative opponent as a huge threat to minority rights.

                          Martin's strong words were delivered against the backdrop of a lineup of staunch social conservatives, all of whom are proudly running for his party in this election.

                          For the past two years, some of the incumbents standing behind Martin at the rally have been the single biggest impediment to the recognition by Parliament of the rights of gay couples.

                          They voted against same-sex marriage at every step of the legislative way, turning a deaf ear to their leader's pleas to line up the definition of marriage with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

                          Indeed, if the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrat Party had not supported same-sex marriage, Martin's social conservative Liberals would have tipped the balance in Parliament against it.

                          Many of the Liberal MPs who fought same-sex marriage tooth and nail have an unbroken track record of opposing gay rights, including the notion of protecting homosexuals from hate crimes. Some of them also came into politics on an anti-abortion ticket.

                          Under two consecutive Liberal leaders, they were allowed to vote as they saw fit on matters of minority rights.

                          Martin would not tolerate MPs who did not support the concept of gender or racial equality.

                          But when it comes to the equality of gay Canadians, he, like Jean Chrétien before him, has been content to leave the matter to the individual conscience of his members.

                          Now, in the dying days of an election campaign, he is going a step further by basically asking voters to re-elect his social conservative MPs to protect some of the very minorities whose rights they have systematically opposed for the better part of a decade.

                          If the absurdity of the proposition did not stop Martin in his tracks this week, it is because the Liberal campaign has now crossed the line between fighting back and fighting low.

                          Liberal strategists insist that Martin's crusade to prevent future Parliaments from using the notwithstanding clause of the Constitution to override the courts on Charter issues is grounded in conviction.

                          If it is, it has taken a long time to surface.

                          And Martin's contention that his new sense of urgency is based on the strongly held suspicion that Harper plans to roll back the clock on abortion rights is based on a shakily constructed fabrication.

                          When it comes to holding the line on abortion rights, Harper happens to have more of a track record than Martin.

                          When he campaigned for the leadership of the Canadian Alliance, he warned his party that, if selected, he would not be taking the abortion battle to Parliament.

                          And at the founding convention of the Conservative party last spring, Tory delegates endorsed the notion of a woman's right to choose to interrupt a pregnancy by a comfortable margin.

                          In his attempts to scare voters into supporting his party on Jan. 23, Martin is well on the way to become more frightening than the opponent he is so desperately trying to catch up to.

                          If the Prime Minister is willing to sacrifice intellectual honesty to his partisan interest in the heat of a losing election campaign, if he is willing to turn his campaign into a full-fledged witch hunt, how far would he be willing to go if the fate of the country was hanging in the balance in a referendum?

                          Chances are that will remain a theoretical question.

                          This is the week when columnists have to decide where they want to be on election night to be on hand for the post-victory news conference of the winner. Until further notice, I am headed for Calgary.

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Chantal Hébert's national affairs column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. chebert@thestar.ca.
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                          • The bells continue to toll.

                            Editorial: Three reasons why it's time for a change

                            Saturday, January 14, 2006 Posted at 1:25 AM EST
                            Globe and Mail Update

                            Canada has been well served by 12-plus years of Liberal rule. Despite what the opposition parties would have us believe, it has not been all scandal and nest-feathering.

                            Ask yourself a simple multiple of Ronald Reagan's famous electoral question: Are you better off today than you were 12 years ago? Unemployment then stood at 11.2 per cent. Today, it is 6.5 per cent. An average mortgage rate was 8.78 per cent. Now it is 5.99 per cent, making home ownership affordable for hundreds of thousands more Canadians. The national debt has fallen from 66.5 per cent of gross domestic product to 38.7 per cent. Taxes are down; our standard of living is up.

                            On a more qualitative level, while much of the world has struggled with intolerance, Canada has emerged as a beacon of diversity — home to newcomers from around the world and confident enough of managing differences to become one of the early adopters of same-sex marriage.

                            The Liberal years certainly have not been without their failings, from the gun registry to the sponsorship scandal to the fumbling of the income-trust issue. But there is no denying we are better off than when Jean Chrétien first came to power with Paul Martin at his side.

                            Nonetheless, we have concluded that the time has arrived for a change of government in Canada. Three reasons stand out above all.

                            1. While the past 12 years have been relatively good ones, the law of diminishing returns has been eroding Liberal effectiveness since at least the 2000 election. A change of leadership in 2003 has failed to reverse the process.

                            The government of Canada, long of tooth and short of energy, is mired in policy gridlock. Hard choices give way to easy spending, and long-term thinking is overwhelmed by short-term calculation. Lacking firm policy anchors, a heavily politi-cized Prime Minister's Office bobs from issue du jour to issue du jour, neglecting enduring challenges in favour of quick hits that hold out the promise of instant gratification. Thus, from nowhere, comes a proposal to outlaw the notwithstanding clause. Apologize, spend, line up behind the parade; it's hardly inspiring, even if a mean-spirited minority Parliament deserves some of the blame.

                            Moreover, Liberal verities hinder rather than assist the finding of answers to such challenges as increasing productivity, fixing an unwieldy and politicized immigration system, steadying relations with the United States and confronting the real ills of the health-care system. Too often, ministers have resorted to the politically correct course: waving a Kyoto agreement rather than tackling greenhouse-gas emissions, or throwing money at aboriginal problems. Fresh thinking is demanded, but the same old elected officials supported by the same old circle of advisers naturally come up with the same old solutions.

                            2. Then there is this matter of the culture of entitlement that has taken deep root within the Liberal Party. C. D. Howe may have been arrogant in invoking closure before debate even began on the pipeline bill in 1956, but at least he didn't hold up his chewing gum and announce he was entitled to his entitlements. Nor, to the best of our memory, did he take his driver on overseas business trips and defend the decision on the basis of his need for security advice. The Liberals have simply become too accustomed to power, and the elites in various sectors too accustomed to the Liberals. When even Ralph Goodale thinks it's all right to investigate yourself, you know you're in trouble.

                            Mr. Martin, a modest and honourable man personally, has done little to challenge this culture, despite so promising during the leadership race. His parliamentary reforms proved a damp squib. Electoral reform died on the vine. A new group of PMO apparatchiks picked up where the old ones left off, exercising an iron grip over party and government affairs. In conducting business with the government of Canada, the question of ‘who do you know in the PMO?' remains regrettably relevant.

                            3. Change is essential in a democracy. A perpetual lease on 24 Sussex Drive fuels the sense of entitlement that blurs the line between private gain and public good. Just as bad, a perpetual lease on Stornoway discourages the discipline and moderation required of an alternative government. Without a vibrant, continuing competition for power, a democracy runs the risk of degenerating into hegemony on the governing side and unreality on the opposition side. Both parties need to believe they can win elections — and lose them.

                            Unfortunately, Canadians have lacked such a choice for most of the past dozen years. The Conservatives, historically a weaker coalition than the Liberals, splintered, rendering themselves chronically uncompetitive. If Canadians were primed for change in 2000, that possibility was rendered moot both by the continued split on the right and by the inept leadership and bizarre views of Stockwell Day.

                            In 2004, Canadians were not ready to bet on a party just recently knit back together and a leader, Stephen Harper, with a controversial political past and a brittle and angry campaign presence. They preferred to give Paul Martin, the most successful finance minister in the history of the country, the benefit of the doubt, despite his ill-starred early months as prime minister.

                            Today, Canadians clearly are ready for change. If not now — if not after a painfully incoherent minority Liberal government, if not after a succession of scandals, if not after four full terms of deteriorating government — then when? When is change acceptable if not now?

                            The argument against change essentially amounts to this: better the devil you know than the new devil. After all, the devil you know has been mediocre, not disastrous, and lies closer to that ephemeral Canadian consensus sometimes called values. Many on the centre-left of the political spectrum remain not unreasonably suspicious of Mr. Harper's election-hour shift to the political centre. They continue to think the erstwhile neoconservative harbours a hidden agenda.

                            Then again, Mr. Martin himself has shifted all over the map in recent years — on ballistic missile defence, on same-sex marriage, on the Clarity Act. In the run-up to the election in June of 2004, we wrote: “We wish Mr. Martin had afforded himself the opportunity of an 18-month tryout before going to the polls. Now the voters have the opportunity to impose a probationary period themselves.”

                            Mr. Martin did not pass that 18-month probation. He doesn't deserve the public's opprobrium, or an electoral wipeout, but neither has he earned the right to a fifth Liberal term. A spell out of power would give the Liberals the time they so clearly need to renew themselves.

                            In that same 2004 editorial, we characterized Mr. Harper as “a product of Central Canadian caution and Alberta's can-do frontier mentality.” But, noting his propensity to “respond to challengers withquiet contempt and truculence,” we expressed doubt that he had “matured into a truly national leader.”

                            There is greater reason to feel comfortable with Mr. Harper today. He has shown himself to be an intelligent man and one, in this campaign at least, who has learned to master his emotions. He has gained control of a party inclined to fly off in all directions, moved it to the centre and proposed a reasonable if imperfect governing platform. His targeted tax measures are measured, his defence policies are sound, and his approach to waiting times is worth experimenting with.

                            His pledge not to use the notwithstanding clause on same-sex marriage provides some comfort, as does his promise not to reopen the abortion debate. In both cases, he has demonstrated a deft political touch, giving something to his base but leaving himself ample political room to steer clear of unnecessarily divisive issues. (Private members have their rights, but we doubt they can muster a majority.) It is the same pattern with his gradualist approach to Senate reform and his willingness to engage the once-dreaded Red Tories.

                            The question many ask — who is the real Stephen Harper? — cannot be answered with exactitude. Then again, who was the real Pierre Trudeau — the civil libertarian or the invoker of the War Measures Act? All politics contains a degree of posturing and calculation. That said, the evidence suggests Mr. Harper has indeed evolved as a national leader.

                            It is hard to endorse him and his party unreservedly. We worry about his seeming indifference to the need for a strong central government in a country so replete with runaway centrifugal forces. We worry about him teaming up with the Bloc Québécois to weaken the federal government's tax-raising capacity and its advocacy of national programs. We worry that he might have to strike retrograde compromises with social conservatives in the party's midst. We worry that he may prove heavy-handed in wielding the considerable powers of a prime minister.

                            But we also know that public opinion in an information-enriched society provides a natural check on immoderate policies and behaviour. Political parties are in the business of currying public favour; a governing party, even an unnatural one, will not stray too far, too frequently, from the social consensus. The dynamic of democratic change keeps competitors for power within reasonable bounds. So it will be for Mr. Harper and his Conservatives.
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                            • True, but neither is brilliant.
                              I thought you were going to say charismatic.
                              Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
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                              • Harper is a smart cookie.

                                Imagine going from officer of advocacy group to leading a regional rump, to uniting an ideology split by two parties, to being on the brink of being PM... in three years.
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