Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[joncha]

Just parking this here (from the last thread) for easier editing later. I'll post my updated prediction after the leader's debates.

[b]British Columbia[/b]
LIB    7 
CON   17 
NDP   12 

[b]Alberta[/b]
LIB    2 
CON   26 

[b]Saskatchewan[/b]
LIB    1 
CON    8 
NDP    5  

[b]Manitoba[/b]
LIB    5
CON    5
NDP    4

[b]Ontario[/b]
LIB   50
CON   44
NDP   12 

[b]Quebec[/b]
LIB   31
BQ    44 

[b]New Brunwick[/b]
LIB    7
CON    2
NDP    1

[b]Nova Scotia[/b]
LIB    4
CON    3
NDP    4

[b]Prince Edward Island[/b]
LIB    4

[b]Newfoundland & Labrador[/b]
LIB    5
CON    2

[b]Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut[/b]
LIB    3


[b]TOTALS[/b]
LIB  119
CON  107
BQ    44
NDP   38

[b]"hedged" totals[/b]
Liberals        120-140
Conservatives   90-110
Bloc Quebecois  40-50
NDP             30-45

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
We've gone from contemplating a Liberal majority, then to a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority, and finally to expecting a Conservative majority! Astonishing.

You may be expecting a Conservative majority, but the Conservative insiders I know are not daring to be that hopeful. A conservative minority is quite likely however.

[Ben Kenobi]

12 NDP seats in BC?

Hope springs eternal.

Here's mine.

BC

25 CON
6 LIB
3 NDP

ALTA

24 CON
2 LIB

Prairies

12 CON
8 LIB
8 NDP

Ontario

59 CON
37 LIB
6 NDP
1 GRN

Quebec

72 BQ
3 LIB

Atlantic

19 LIB
9 CON
4 NDP

North

2 LIB
1 CON

Total:

130 CON
77 LIB
72 BQ
21 NDP
1 GRN

[cinch]

Kudos to the CBC for giving the translator positions for Harper and Layton to two quite effeminate men.

[Richelieu]

Harper and Layton can debate quite efficiently in french.

[KrazyHorse]

Layton's from Montreal after all...

How is Harper's accent?

[KrazyHorse]

72 BQ

Oh my ****ing God. You're literally going insane.

[KrazyHorse]

I could practically have you committed based on that.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Layton's from Montreal after all...

How is Harper's accent?

It's better than i thought it would be. He still places the emphasis in weird places, but all in all not bad.

Didn't even know Layton was from Montreal. It shows.

[KrazyHorse]

He grew up in Hudson (not quite on the island, but close enough).

[Asher]

Originally posted by cinch
Kudos to the CBC for giving the translator positions for Harper and Layton to two quite effeminate men.

Well they had to find someone who spoke French.

----

I met Layton's woman, Olivia Chow, yesterday. I was in my friend's apartment downtown on Elm Street (which is in her riding thing), and she was going door to door in the apartment asking for votes. At the time we were hotboxing in a walk-in closet RIGHT next to the apartment door, and she kinda interrupted, and we had the most intense 60 second conversation of our lives with her. She's cool. I would vote for her.

We offered her some but she politely declined.

[KrazyHorse]

Holy ****, that's hilarious.

[Asher]

Her little pamphlet thing came in handy for hashing. NDP

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
We've gone from contemplating a Liberal majority, then to a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority, and finally to expecting a Conservative majority!

Astonishing.

The astonishing thing is how badly both the Liberals and Conservatives have done in this election campaign.

The astonishing thing is how the media has ignored the massive gains being made by the NDP.

The Liberals have blown a massive majority while the Conservatives have lost ground compared to the past election. (And no one is really expecting the Conservatives to get a majority).

The Conservatives have lost ground in the west and the Maritimes, barely holding on in Ontario. The Liberals have lost support or are barely holding on across the country. The NDP are gaining ground across the country. In almost every province, they're up by 10 percentage points.

That's the story that is not being told.

Harper has blown it in BC. In the 2000 election, 49.4% of BC voters picked the Alliance while the PC received 7.3%. Now only about 34% of BC voters are saying they'll pick the Conservatives. In other words, the Conservatives have lost ground even among the people who once voted for the Alliance.

In Alberta, the combined Alliance/PC vote in 2000 was 72.4%. The Conservatives are only polling at 59%. That's a huge drop for a traditionally right-wing province.

In Man/Sask, support has dropped from an combined average of 49% in 2000, down to 31%.

In Ontario, Conservative support is about the same as it was for the Alliance/PC in 2000, despite the backlash against the Ontario Liberal government. Again, the Conservatives should be doing much better. They haven't made any ground.

In the Maritimes, the Conservatives are down about 5 to 10 percentage points from the 2000 numbers.

So who is winning ground?

In BC, the Liberals are holding their ground while the NDP has doubled its support.

In Alberta, the Liberals are again holding steady while the NDP have doubled their support to 10% and surprisingly the Greens are polling about 10% too.

In Man and Sask, the same story, Liberals steady, NDP up by about 10 percentage points..

In the Maritimes, the Liberals are down slightly, the NDP is up about 10 percentage points.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
12 NDP seats in BC?

Hope springs eternal.

Here's mine.

BC

25 CON
6 LIB
3 NDP

1. Vancouver Centre
2. Vancouver East
3. Vancouver Kingsway
4. Vancouver South
5. Burnaby-Douglas
6. Burnaby-New Westminster
7. New Westminster-Coquitlam
8. Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
9. Kamloops-Thompson
10. Kootenay-Columbia
11. Skeena-Buckley Valley
12. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
13. Nanaimo-Alberni
14. Nanaimo-Cowichan
15. Vancouver Island North
16. Victoria

Minimum 6, maximum 16 NDP seats from BC. 12 may be wishful thinking, but with the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all running even in the polls here, 12 of 36 is not a crazy outcome.