Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[Seeker]

I must say I am surprised how much I seem to support Layton's (stated) policies, since I normally loath his party. Must be the gun registry and military spending.

Multiculturalism...I don't think the cons have it in for 'Dragon Boat racing' but they may (thank Odin) try to rein in the national art gallery a bit.

I support increased mil spending in terms of getting modern fighters, helicopters....but WTF does Canada need a carrier for??

[notyoueither]

Don't hold your breathe, Tingkai.

Oh, and giving MPs more power is exactly the way he wants to lead. That means that most or all non-finance or confidence issues would be free votes. The NDP can stand in the way if they want. We'll see what Canadians really want, eventually.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Seeker
I support increased mil spending in terms of getting modern fighters, helicopters....but WTF does Canada need a carrier for??

I think the idea is similar to US Marine operations ships. You go into an area where you have no safe land bases, and you can deploy the troops from and back to the 'carrier' with helicopters.

In some places it would give peacekeepers capabilities and safety that they could not have otherwise.

They would also be very handy for maintaining sovereignty in the Arctic. Floating base with troops able to occupy any area, or board a ship, as needed.

[Tingkai]

The "free vote" is just a loophole tactic for avoiding the issue. This lets Harper say he's got no plans to ban abortion, but then turning around and saying he would allow a *wink*wink* "free vote" if the Conservatives form a majority. Of course, we know how the Conservatives would all vote.

[notyoueither]

No, it's a way of looking at Parliament that would address the 'domocratic deficit'. You know, MPs more accountable to their constiuents than their parties. You know, something that Layton and the NDP don't seem too fussed about. Seems they would prefer for things to go on as usual.

And exacty how do you come by the knowledge as to how all Conservatives would vote, Tingkai?

[Tingkai]

More crazy or pointless ideas from the Conservatives

1) "We will pass legislation that will adopt a zero tolerance policy for child porn, eliminating the so-called “public good” defence."

Hello? Zero tolerance means owning a copy of Romeo and Juliet will be illegal. The Liberals government amended the law to take into account things like Romeo and Juliet.

2) The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming.

" Canada finds itself unable to assert its sovereignty over our northern islands and waters due to a lack of personnel and equipment... Regenerate our Maritime Force through the establishment of a single civilian coast
guard agency"

Excuse me? Who is attacking our northern islands and waters? And we already have a single civilian coast guard agency.

3) The Conservatives gun-control measures "will include... Firearms safety training."

Unlike the current law that requires people to get ... firearms safety training.

4)
How about "A Conservative government led by Stephen Harper will develop a Made in Canada
foreign policy that emphasizes our most important values... We will work closely with international organizations such as the United Nations
and in concert with our most important military allies".

So it's going to be a "Made in Canada policy" that sticks to our existing international commitments. In other words, exactly what we've been doing for decades.

[notyoueither]

Tingkai, have you heard of the paedophile who got off because what he wrote describing sex with children 'could have artistic merit', or so the judge said?

It was not Shakespeare that was on trial, but nice try.

Re the Arctic, I suggest you read up on our position re Arctic sovereignty and other nations. Hint, it ain't the Russians that worry us. More like the Yanks and the French, among others. Are you saying the NDP would ignore it until we lost it?

[Tingkai]

NYE, you know that after that court case, the wording of the law was changed from "artistic merit" to "public good". This closed the loophole, but still Harper and his buddies are talking about "zero tolerance". Either they're going crazy and plan to go after Romeo and Juliet, or they're lying.

No one is attacking out Arctic soveriegnty, and what would the Reform, sorry, I mean Conservative do to increase our presence there? Buy a nuke submarine? Build arctic bases? Face it, this is just old Cold War mentality.

[Seeker]

While let me reiterate that I support military revamp, I think the kind of carrier you describe would open the door to Canada taking part in distasteful 'pre-emption' style missions instead of what we do, which is peacekeeping.

[KrazyHorse]

55 BQ seats is possible. Difficult, but at least within the bounds of credibility.

My prediction remains at 45 for the Bloc, however.

And if the situation does truly turn out like NYE envisions, the best idea (in terms of good governance for Canada) would be to create a Liberal-Conservative alliance. Politically it might prove impossible for Harper (who bases his support on hatred of the Liberals) to govern with their aid.

As for the NDP-Conservative alliance, what exactly would they agree on?

[KrazyHorse]

Same with the BQ.

The Conservatives have no real common ideological enemies with anyone. They all share the common political enemy of the Liberals because they're the biggest kid on the block, but once that is no longer true then what do the NDP and Bloc have that binds them to the Conservatives? The Bloc is left of the Liberals. So is the NDP. Moreover the Bloc's vision of Canada has more in common with the Liberals' policies than it does with any likely Conservative government's policies.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
12 NDP seats in BC? Hope springs eternal. Here's mine.

Ontario
59 CON
37 LIB
6 NDP
1 GRN

Quebec
72 BQ
3 LIB

How do you get 1 Green in Ontario?! If the Greens win any seats it will be on Vancouver Island.

3 Liberal seats in Quebec Even when the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats in 1984 they had more than 3 seats in Quebec. There are ridings in Montreal and Gatineau where you will never get people to switch their vote from Liberal. Count on at least 8 and probably 10-15 minimum Liberal seats in Quebec.

[Flinx]

Tories edge ahead in new poll

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040615.wxelecpoll15/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

By DREW FAGAN
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

The Conservative Party has taken a narrow lead in the federal election campaign and appears headed toward winning a solid minority government amid weakening support for the Liberals, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos-Reid survey for The Globe and Mail and CTV has a slim ray of hope for the Liberal Party, although at 31 per cent, it trails the Conservatives by one point.

More than one-quarter of voters say they are likely to change their minds before election day, and NDP supporters -- whom the Liberals are courting -- are the most likely to do so. (The NDP now stands at 17 per cent.)

But the Liberals' assault on Conservative values and credibility hasn't persuaded voters they should fear a government run by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Canadians are split over whether Mr. Harper is "too extreme" to be prime minister, as was the case the week before the election campaign began.

"It doesn't seem to be a barrier," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said.

The new poll was conducted from Friday through Sunday. A seat projection based on the results would give the Conservatives -- who stand at 32 per cent nationally -- almost 30 seats more than the Liberals.

The previous two Ipsos-Reid polls gave the Liberals a one-point edge, down from a nine-point lead on the eve of the election call.

"The impressions which started at the beginning of the campaign, and really reach back to February, have now become entrenched," Mr. Bricker said. "The Liberals have descended to this level and now appear unable to climb out of it. The Conservatives have ascended to this level."

Liberal Leader Paul Martin's key problem remains Ontario, where his party trails the Conservatives, 34 per cent to the Tories' 36. This result is similar to an Ipsos-Reid poll published 10 days ago (although worse for the Liberals than one published five days ago) and suggests swing voters are just not being swayed by Liberal attempts to paint the Conservatives as beyond the Canadian mainstream on social issues such as abortion. The NDP is at 22 per cent provincially.

By losing the dominance in Ontario they enjoyed in the previous three elections, Mr. Bricker said, the Liberals no longer have a strong geographical base to formulate a winning strategy. A seat projection based on the new poll makes this clear.

It suggests the Conservatives would win 123 to 127 ridings if the election were held now, while the Liberals would be limited to 95 to 99. Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, would be split evenly between Liberal red and Conservative blue.

The Bloc Québécois would return to Ottawa with 60 to 64 seats on the basis of its 20-point lead in Quebec -- 48 to 28 for the Liberals.

The NDP is projected to win 22 to 26 seats nationally, including six in Ontario.

These results suggest that, if things stay the same during the final 13 days of the campaign, the Conservatives would win a substantial plurality of seats on June 28. Mr. Martin would have little chance of gaining the confidence of Parliament under any kind of coalition scenario. Mr. Harper, however, would be in a strong position to do so.

The seat projection indicates Mr. Harper would have more than one potential dance partner as he seeks the magic 155-seat mark needed to control a majority in the Commons. The Bloc would put him over the top easily. But combining the Conservatives and NDP would also come close -- possibly within two seats. Mr. Harper -- if he and the NDP arranged an entente despite ideological differences -- likely would seek his last votes from backbench Liberals who might be induced to switch sides.

"This would give [the Conservatives] a stronger bargaining hand for sure," Mr. Bricker said.

(The seat projections would leave the Liberals with their worst showing since 1988, when they won 83 seats, including 43 in Ontario and 12 in Quebec. It would also give the Bloc its best showing ever -- more than the 54 seats in 1993 that made the sovereigntist party the Official Opposition.

The two parties that formed the Conservatives -- the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives -- won a total of 78 seats in the 2000 election. The NDP won 13 seats in 2000.)

The new poll finds that 27 per cent of voters say they are likely to change their minds about whom to support -- including 35 per cent of NDP supporters, 26 per cent of Conservatives, 23 per cent of Liberals and 18 per cent of Bloc supporters. Many of them say they expect the two debates -- the English-language version is tonight, after last night's French debate -- will help them make a final choice.

But this level of uncertainty is not historically high, Mr. Bricker noted.

Furthermore, the electorate's underlying view of the Martin government hasn't changed since the early days of the campaign. Only 29 per cent of those polled say it deserves to win office, compared with 65 per cent who say it is time to give another party a chance to govern.

In Atlantic Canada, the poll finds, the Liberals have built a commanding lead over the Conservatives and the NDP. In Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, the Conservatives are well out in front of the Liberals and the NDP. The Conservatives are also ahead in British Columbia, but not by as large a margin.

The Green Party's support nationally stands at 6 per cent.

The poll of 1,000 adults is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[Asher]

Re: Tories edge ahead in new poll

Originally posted by Flinx

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040615.wxelecpoll15/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

Is that a pride flag in your sig?

[Flinx]

I received this from a co-worker. Insert the politician of your choice.

While vacationing on a ranch, Paul Martin gets thrown from his horse, lands on a rattlesnake, gets bitten and dies because the emergency room at the nearest hospital is too understaffed to treat him in time. So his soul arrives in heaven and he is met by St. Peter at the Pearly Gates. "Welcome to Heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a Liberal around these parts, so we're not sure what to do with you." "No problem, just let me in; I'm a believer." says Martin "I'd like to just let you in, but I have orders from the Man Himself. He says you have to spend one day in Hell and one day in Heaven. Then you must choose where you'll live for eternity." "But, I've already made up my mind, I want to be in Heaven," replied Martin "I'm sorry, but we have our rules." And with that, St. Peter escorts him to an elevator and he goes down, down, down, all the way to Hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a lush golf course; the sun is shining in a cloudless sky, the temperature a perfect 72 degrees. In the distance is a beautiful clubhouse. Standing in front of it is his dad, and thousands of other Liberals who had helped him out over the years. Pierre Trudeau, Jean Marchand, Pelletier, St. Laurent etc. The whole of the "Left" was there, everyone laughing, happy and casually but expensively dressed. They run to greet him, hug him, and reminisce about the good times they had getting rich at expense of the "suckers and peasants." They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster and caviar. The Devil himself comes up to Martin with a frosty drink, "Have a Margarita and relax, Paul!" "Uh, I can't drink no more, I took a pledge," says Martin, dejectedly. "This is Hell, son. You can drink and eat all you want and not worry, and it just gets better from there!" Martin takes the drink and finds himself liking the Devil, who he thinks is a really very friendly guy who tells funny jokes like himself, and pulls hilarious nasty pranks, kind of like they pulled on the GST and Free Trade promises. They are having such a great time that, before he realizes it, it's time to go. Everyone gives him a big hug and waves as Martin steps on the elevator and heads upward. When the elevator door reopens, he is in Heaven again and St. Peter is waiting for him. "Now it's time to visit Heaven," the old man says, opening the gate. So for 24 hours Martin is made to hang out with a bunch of honest, good-natured people who enjoy each other's company, talk about things other than money, and treat each other decently. Not a nasty prank or frat boy joke among them; no fancy country clubs and, while the food tastes great, it's not caviar or lobster. And these people are all poor, he doesn't see anybody he knows, and he isn't even treated like someone special! Worst of all, to Martin, Jesus turns out to be some kind of Jewish hippie with his endless 'peace' and 'do unto others' jive. "Whoa," he says uncomfortably to himself. "Pierre Trudeau never prepared me for this!" The day done, St. Peter returns and says, "Well, you've spent a day in Hell and a day in Heaven. Now choose where you want to live for eternity." With the 'Jeopardy' theme playing softly in the background, Martin reflects for a minute, then answers: "Well, I would never have thought I'd say this -- I mean, Heaven has been delightful and all -- but I really think I belong in Hell with my friends." So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down, all the way to Hell. The doors of the elevator open and he is in the middle of a barren scorched earth covered with garbage and toxic industrial waste, kind of like Sudbury. He is horrified to see all of his friends, dressed in rags and chained together, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags. They are groaning and moaning in pain, faces and hands black with grime. The Devil comes over to Martin and puts an arm around his shoulder. "I don't understand," stammers a shocked Martin, "Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and a clubhouse and we ate lobster and caviar, drank booze. We screwed around and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and everybody looks miserable!" The Devil looks at him, smiles slyly, and purrs, "Yesterday we were campaigning; today you voted for us!"