Iowa

[mrmitchell]

Gephardt has officialy confirmed he will drop out.

Is he endorsing Sharpton?

[MrFun]

Just turned on CNN now and found out what many of you already knew from earlier -- Kerry won!!

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha
hes not likely to endorse Clark considering his stance on trade.

No one shares his stance on trade.

[Ben Kenobi]

Is he endorsing Sharpton?

[Joseph]

Originally posted by GePap
If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

Kucinich should drop after NH.

Sharpton will wait until the NY, NJ, Phily and Penn, Balt. and Maryland, South and North Carolina just to see how many delegate he will have so he can be a speaker at their convention. (His 15 min of flame).

[GePap]

While the extremely and endless negative press certainly weakened Dean significantly, as well as his overemphasis on his anti-war opposition (he would do much better to speak of his record as governor), I am at a loss to see why gephardt tanked so drastically. Dean was polling at 22 % and went down to 18%- that a loss of 4. Gephard was polling at 19% and wen to 11, a loss of 8. It seems the unions stayed home, and that his signle minded attacks v. Dean ignored the other challenges.

Well, now onto a real primary as opposed to this freaky circus, New Hampshire.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

It's easy to predict polls when it's already happened

Official CNN tally:

(Candidate
Vote% Delegates)

Kerry
38% 7
Edwards
32% 6
Dean
18% 3
Gephardt
11% 0
Kucinich
1% 0
Clark
0% 0
Uncommitted
0% 0
Lieberman
0% 0
Moseley Braun
0% 0
Sharpton
0% 0

This is huge. It was supposed to be a two-way race between Dean and Gephardt.

[Whoha]

actually Gepap, some of the others have waffled back and forth about looking at the trade agreements again, Clark has declared himself in the free trade corner.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap
If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

Excellent analysis IMO. Kerry becoming the front runner will spell the end for Clark. (Just my little prediction)

[GePap]

The nature of the caucases hurt Dean most. Gephardt was supposed to have all this appeal, but his anti-trade platform does not seem to have gone over with the middle classes and the Unions failed to show up, it seems. The nature of the caucauses helped Edwards the most.

The thing is, no senator has won the white house in over 90 years. At the same time, no president who lost the popular vote and won was ever re-elected. If a senatro ends up being the dem candidate, I wonder which trend will hold?

[mrmitchell]

**** Gephart sucked.

(Yes, I did indeed only post that so I could show a legitimate example to have '****' and 'suck' within 2 words of each other )

[Jaguar]

Kerry's got really good chances in New Hampshire now. Edwards is close to having a lock on South Carolina Which means that Clark is kinda screwed.

Lieberman is really screwed. He did this big song and dance about how he's electable, unlike Howard Dean, so people should vote for him. But Kerry just doubled Dean's numbers, so he's been anointed as the "electable frontrunner."

I predict a three-man race of Kerry, Edwards and Dean. Edwards will look weak in New Hampshire but win South Carolina.

[PLATO]

GePap, To what do you attribute a large turnout combined with the failure of the unions to produce? Could this be interpreted as a positive statement on the economy?

[GePap]

Originally posted by PLATO


Excellent analysis IMO. Kerry becoming the front runner will spell the end for Clark. (Just my little prediction)

Clark can always claim that a "liberal form Massachusetts" simply can not compete in the south, and that his war experience is just as god as Kerry's, so pick me. Of course, the democracts can kiss the south goodbye no matter who they run- they are only competative in Florida, and that is all that matters in the south for the Dems.

The thing is though, Edwards is still following the campaign finance system- he will not have the money to compete with Bush. Dean has money, and kerry can tap his wife.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap


kerry can tap his wife.

Seriously, I think I have heard it reported that he is legally barred from using her $