Iowa

[POTUS]

You are thinking of Clark and Lieberman.

[Shi Huangdi]

Originally posted by POTUS
It is only beginning, we won't know the final results until much later.

Over half of the precincts are in, it looks a little too late for Gephardt and Dean. Kerry has an advantage, we'll have to see if he or Edwards pulls it out.

Kerry 37%
Edwards 33%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%

[Ben Kenobi]

From the entrance polls:

Why Edwards does well in Iowa.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry / Kucinich


Cares about people like me 22 15 41 17 22
Takes strong stands on the issues 29 31 23 7 26 10
Has the right experience 15 5 2 18 71
Can beat George W. Bush 27 21 30 6 37


41% for of the people feel Edwards cares about them, higher than Kerry, while 71% of the group looking for experience, sees Kerry with the right experience.

Dean leads with 31% saying that he takes strong stands on the issues, but trails both Kerry and Edwards when people consider whether he can beat Dubya.

That 41% is huge for Edwards, the only category he polls ahead of Kerry.

[DanS]

Gephardt's gotta remove himself from this race, if he can only get 4th in a neighboring state, where there are no other real Midwestern candidates. That's a pretty piss-poor showing.

[Ben Kenobi]

Kerry 37%
Edwards 33%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%

Dean's gotta get 60% of the remaining ballots, and has to hope the rest continue to split between Kerry and Edwards and Gephardt for him to have a chance.

[Winston]

Originally posted by DanS
Gephardt's gotta remove himself from this race, if he can only get 4th in a neighboring state, where there are no other real Midwestern candidates.

Plus he won the Iowa caucus in 2000. That's quite a fall to take.

[Ben Kenobi]

And why Dean did poorly. It's the economy, stupid.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry

Economy/Jobs 29 16 34 12 33

Dean gets 16% of the 29% citing the economy as their primary concern. Edwards and Kerry are nose to nose.

[Shi Huangdi]

And we have a projected winner, Kerry will get the most delegates tonight.

[DanS]

Winston: ITYM, Gephardt won in '88, rather. But the point is still valid.

[GePap]

If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
From the entrance polls:

Why Edwards does well in Iowa.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry / Kucinich


Cares about people like me 22 15 41 17 22
Takes strong stands on the issues 29 31 23 7 26 10
Has the right experience 15 5 2 18 71
Can beat George W. Bush 27 21 30 6 37

37% feel Kucinich could beat Bush? 71% feel he has the right experience?

That's got to be a typo, no? Or am I just reading it wrong?

So, assuming Gephardt drops out, who does he endorse?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Edan
So, assuming Gephardt drops out, who does he endorse?

A fellow legislator most likely, either Lieberman or Kerry I would say: though he could always jump in for Clark.

[Ben Kenobi]

Edan:

I suck at graphs.

First number in each row is the total.

Second number in each row is Dean, etc.

Kucinich is 6th, but I only included one section where he polled in double digits. All the others, he had no effect on the overall outcome.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3762614/

Is the link to the exit polls, so you don't have to look at the poor attempt at a graph.

[Whoha]

hes not likely to endorse Clark considering his stance on trade.

[Shi Huangdi]

Gephardt has officialy confirmed he will drop out.