I don't really understand about Dean.

[Alexander's Horse]

You need a real President not the hand puppet you have now.

[Boris Godunov]

That's why if I ever meet Karl Rove, I'll make sure not to shake his hand. I know where it's been...

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Shouldn't hurt. The electorate is rather nervous about that totally Republican deficit.

How well did Mondale do in his run for the White House again?

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
How well did Mondale do in his run for the White House again?

The Babyboomers are now 20 years closer to retirement- and we know how "me" oriented they are.

[chequita guevara]

Gepap makes an excellent point. The Boomers know they're retiring soon. They want the government to be able to pay Social Security to them. That means paying down the debt and no deficits.

[Shi Huangdi]

Most political science research that has looked at what voters look to be most important in assesing the economy, and deficits are not one of them. Note how the GOP when they increased deficits greatly in the 1980's won in both 1984(against a pro-tax raise) candidate and 1988. The Democrats tried this populist "Wealthiest 1%" argument against Bush's tax cuts in 2000, and the Democrats lost after 8 years of peace and propserity and most forecasting models gave Gore winning with as much as 55%-60% of the vote. Anti-Tax populism, while inspiring to the Democratic base, just typically does not work.

[chequita guevara]

Yes, but Gore lost in 2000 because of vote fraud, not because of he lost the vote. And the Dem's took control of Congress and kept it during the Reagan-Bush era. Plus, the Boomers weren't gonna be retiring for another thirty years. Now it's only six years away, and the government, if it doesn't fix things, is gonna be hard pressed to make its payments.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by GePap
The Babyboomers are now 20 years closer to retirement- and we know how "me" oriented they are.

I still see no real evidence that a pro-tax raise candidate like Dean would be able to carry the day but we'll find out for sure before the end of the year.

Yes, but Gore lost in 2000 because of vote fraud

Gore lost because he was an idiot. Given the conditions of the time, it was his to loose from the start.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Most political science research that has looked at what voters look to be most important in assesing the economy, and deficits are not one of them. Note how the GOP when they increased deficits greatly in the 1980's won in both 1984(against a pro-tax raise) candidate and 1988. The Democrats tried this populist "Wealthiest 1%" argument against Bush's tax cuts in 2000, and the Democrats lost after 8 years of peace and propserity and most forecasting models gave Gore winning with as much as 55%-60% of the vote. Anti-Tax populism, while inspiring to the Democratic base, just typically does not work.

Interestingly, i remember the press having discussions about what GW would do in case he lost fater winning the popular vote. Never did those models get any reporting in the press. As far as jan 2000 it was assumed Bush was the frontrunner and for most of the race that was the talk. Gore was NEVER seen as the frontrunner in the race, NEVER.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I still see no real evidence that a pro-tax raise candidate like Dean would be able to carry the day but we'll find out for sure before the end of the year.

Its how the debate is framed: if the republicsn succeed in saying it about tax and spend liberals, they have an edge. if democrats succeed at making it about spend and burden with debt quasi-conservatives, they have an edge.

[Ned]

GePap, I don't see how Dean can win given his anti-war, pro tax positions. At least Clark is has some credibility on defense because of his status as a four-star general.

[Lancer]

"GePap, I don't see how Dean can win given his anti-war, pro tax positions. At least Clark is has some credibility on defense because of his status as a four-star general."

Dean's anti war stance won't wash in a time when we need someone like Bush who doesn't shy away from a fight. People see that Bush has caught many of the terrorists who attacked the WTC the first time around, blew a hole in the Cole killing US servicemen, and blew up the embasys in africa...all events that occured during Clinton's watch. I got sooo sick of the US getting bloodied and not hitting back, that I'm glad to finally have a fighter in the ring. So glad that I'm willing to forgive a few screw ups on Bush's part. Dean makes me worry that once again US servicemen will die and once again we will do nothing.

[Shi Huangdi]

""Yes, but Gore lost in 2000 because of vote fraud, not because of he lost the vote. "

Bear in mind the forecasting models predict the popular vote anyway, which Gore did win. But since you mention voter fraud, it's likely Gore's numbers there could be inflated in terms of the popular vote because of more sophisticated Democratic Party machines. (Chicago being the worst example)

"
Interestingly, i remember the press having discussions about what GW would do in case he lost fater winning the popular vote. Never did those models get any reporting in the press. As far as jan 2000 it was assumed Bush was the frontrunner and for most of the race that was the talk. Gore was NEVER seen as the frontrunner in the race, NEVER."

Political forecasting models often don't get much attention, but that doesn't mean they aren't there, and they are nearly always right(1960 being the only exception, and that was a case of known voter fraud). Gore's 48% of the popular vote didn't come clost to what was predicted of him by political scientists.

"Also Guy, the article pre-dates the steel tariff repeal, so Dean's even stronger in places like WV and Ohio than the article suggests. "

Even stronger? Those are both very socially conservative states and the races there will likely be decided on social issues. The latest polls, and they were before Saddam's capture, Bush had a huge lead in Ohio in a potential matchup: 57-38

"And if developing states start taking us to the WTO over agrisubsidies - which they almost certainly will do now that the "peace clause" has expired, Shrub can lose very, vergy big. If he repeals the subsidies, all of those Republican farming states in the midwest will go Democrat and he'll lose the election badly. If he rejects the WTO's demands, he'll piss off everyone else because of the retalitory tariffs that'd trigger, and lose the election even worse."

I think you are overestimating the effects of them. It isn't clear that a trade war will break out, and if it does how long it will take it to break out, and if longer peace can be negotiated, and with the EU and Japan on our side I doubt there is much the WTO can do. Moreover, those farming states again are extremely socially conservative and it is highly unlikely many would be competetive under any circumstance.

From the article:

"With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. "

These people ought to look more at empirical evidence, and it doesn't look like the nuclear issue will be that big of a deal, BUsh is ahead there by a huge margin.

Also interesting from the current polling is Bush's 25 point lead in New Hampshire, where Dean has gotten the most exposure, showing just how well Dean's message is getting across to voters.

[Shi Huangdi]

Oh, and if they really think Bush is going to be hampered in Nevada due to lack of opposition from Harry Reid, as if that would greatly affect turnout for an important Presidential contest like this, they are truly nuts.

[Ben Kenobi]

You'll hear more about his conservativism after he seals up the nomination.

I really appreciate how he uses his Christianity when it's popular, and puts it aside when it is not. Bush doesn't care what people think about his faith, if they disagree, they just have to deal with it. I would rather he just not try to pander to these votes, it would give me more respect for what Dean believes. Now he's just a weathercock.