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  • #61
    I'm wondering that too.

    The middle variant (let alone the low variant), shows a decline in worldwide population by 2050. I'm also curious as to why they now refer to their projections with much less confidence than when they showed a supposed population explosion.

    "Do Euros have some aversion to sex or something?" no, there are other reasons why children aren't being born.
    Any other suggestions besides Shi's as to why the birthrates are so low?

    What about Poland, DanS? What's the birthrate there?

    The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?
    Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
    "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
    2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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    • #62
      Any other suggestions besides Shi's as to why the birthrates are so low?
      Abortion. Contraception. Later marriage ages. But I guess I'd rather stick to the gags denigrating European virility.

      What about Poland, DanS? What's the birthrate there?
      About as bad as Italy's.

      The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?
      It won't start to decline any time soon.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #63
        Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
        The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?
        Well we'll still have the last fast-growing area of world population (Africa) on our doorstep in the 2050's
        19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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        • #64
          they do about 140k abortions a year.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by DanS
            ef: You aren't going to respond to my question about Spain?
            Not sure what the question was?

            Was it whether the home state pays the pension benefits of those who retire there, if so the answer is yes - in a sort of roundabout way.
            They get paid from Spainish post offices/bacs transfers and that money comes from the Spainish treasury - but they are reimbersed by the UK government.
            19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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            • #66
              No. The question was where you get those large population increases, when my numbers say that Spain's population went up about 2% overall from 1985-2000.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #67
                DanS:

                Slagging Euorpean virility is something Canucks and Yanks have in common.

                I see your point about immigration not halting anytime soon, but the AIDS pandemic in Africa doesn't look like it's going to halt anytime soon either.

                Heck, infection rates are still increasing here.
                Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by DanS
                  No. The question was where you get those large population increases, when my numbers say that Spain's population went up about 2% overall from 1985-2000.
                  From (as usual) the OECD

                  This data (which was last updated 25/9/2003) show's Spain's population growing by around 0.2% a year between 1987 and 1997 but accelerating to 0.6% since then.
                  Portugal also shows a similar rise - from a slight fall in population in 1987-92 to 0.3% growth in 1992-97 and 0.5% 1997-02.
                  Last edited by el freako; December 7, 2003, 10:57.
                  19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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                  • #69
                    My point with the graph is that the existing data isn't sufficient to plot a trend like that. In fact, no data would be. 50 years agp, people would never have anticipated things such as the AIDS epidemic or China's one-child laws.
                    Visit First Cultural Industries
                    There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
                    Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

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                    • #70
                      Again, you are misunderstanding forecasting methods smilely,

                      What you are showing in that graph is real data and a medium variant of the forecast.

                      To show the inherent uncertainty that all these forecasts apply the furthur you get into the future you should really show the low and high variant and share the area inbetween as the expected path.

                      You will notice that the difference between both the high and low variants grows as time progresses - this is an implicit acceptance of the uncertainty that you say is not included in these forecasts.
                      19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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                      • #71
                        Here is an excel spreadsheet with the graphs embedded.

                        (Data taken from UN population survey, 2002 revision)
                        Attached Files
                        19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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                        • #72
                          ef: Don't know why the sources don't agree. I was going by the July US Census numbers, which don't show this change.

                          I guess it shouldn't be surprising. The OECD, US Census, and the UN don't agree with each other either.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by el freako
                            That's rubbish Shi,

                            Just compare the integration of the UK's afro/carribean population to that of the US's.

                            Immigrants take time to be fully integrated (usually a generation or two), there hasn't been enough time to integrate most of the muslim immigrants (a good analogy would be the Irish immigration into the US 150 years ago - that took time to be assimilated)
                            Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.
                            "I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer

                            "I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - Slowwhand

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                            • #74
                              Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.
                              How do you know that?
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Shi Huangdi


                                Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.

                                It's probablty no more likely than devout Irish catholics assimilating into the predominately protestant culture of the eastern US - and that after having suffered persecution at the hands of protestants.

                                You really do make some silly assumptions Shi.
                                19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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