Earn 12K US!

[Nubclear]

Here's India...
Russia is too sad to put up If we don't start doing something different, soon Russia will simply disappear and the evil Chinese will take Moscow!!!!!
Dan, how'd you get 2030?

[Japher]

Yeah, the rape scene was long... Still, I liked it. Sorry no one else enjoyed it. Just fastforward to the end/beginning where you get to see monica naked.

[DanS]

The Chinese aren't going to be in much better of a situation. Check them out.

[Nubclear]

Well buy the time Russia disappears there will probably still be a Chinese population

[Ben Kenobi]

I can go into excruciating detail on this. Suffice to say, we will not have a population crunch, like these other countries are on track to do.

DanS:

I had a demographics course last year, interesting stuff.

Care to PM me where you are getting this data?

[Drogue]

I was just thinking, it reminded me of the almost entirely female Earth from Quantum Leap, where the men have all but died out and are needed to help repopulate, so are put into "programs" where they have to inseminate as many women as possible. Just a thought

[Az]

a thought? there is a better word for that.

[Az]

btw, Dan, the Israeli buraeu of statistics disagrees with yours.

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=IS

your's puts it at around 7.5 million for 2020

the israeli CBS puts it at around 8.5 million for 2020.

[Shi Huangdi]

Most Italian women say they want at least two children, but on average have just 1.2,

The doom of that country is the price it pays for it's abandonment of the church's teaching.

[Shi Huangdi]

"Besides child subsidies (which seem like a reasonable way of increasing birth rates to me), the other option is to start allowing immigration en masse. I highly recommend this, but some European countries haven't been too hip on this idea."

Yes, but Europe has been doing a very poor job of assimilating new immigrants, many of whom have diffrent social/cultural values from the native population. *cough* Isalmic Republic of Germany*

[el freako]

That's rubbish Shi,

Just compare the integration of the UK's afro/carribean population to that of the US's.

Immigrants take time to be fully integrated (usually a generation or two), there hasn't been enough time to integrate most of the muslim immigrants (a good analogy would be the Irish immigration into the US 150 years ago - that took time to be assimilated)

[:) Smiley]

I question the accuracy of the predictions- they seem to assume a constant decline in the rate of change for the next 50 years... when past data shows that the rate of change is anything but constant.

[Whoha]

"Do Euros have some aversion to sex or something?" no, there are other reasons why children aren't being born.

[el freako]

Originally posted by Smiley
I question the accuracy of the predictions- they seem to assume a constant decline in the rate of change for the next 50 years... when past data shows that the rate of change is anything but constant.

You obviously know little about forecasting for these sorts of time periods.

I do not expect that every single year will show a steady change, but it does expect that the broad trend will be the same.

When looking at these predictions you should look at the broad change not the individual data for each year.

If your were to group the data into 5-year averages then you would see a smooth graph on both sides of the current period

[DanS]

ef: You aren't going to respond to my question about Spain?

the israeli CBS puts it at around 8.5 million for 2020.

And the UN Population Division middle variant puts it at 8.1 million. Only the high variant would agree with the CBS figure. I don't know where the difference lies.