NFL 2013 Season Thread

[Ben Kenobi]

If one team has an elite defense and correspondingly opposing offenses need to rack up a ton of yards to score, how is that not helpful to consider?

If we want to calculate expected points, what sense does it make to discard the quality of the defensive team they're playing against?!

If I'm trying to measure, "sweetness of individual candybars", having a publication state that "the average sweetness of candy bar X", is not helpful for my purposes.

[-Jrabbit]

The 4-0 turnover differential is not accounted for in any statistic you two have bandied about.

Not saying you should. Just pointing out (again) that this discussion is ridiculous.

[Ben Kenobi]

The 4-0 turnover differential is not accounted for in any statistic you two have bandied about.

Not saying you should. Just pointing out (again) that this discussion is ridiculous.

I'm trying to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. We wouldn't expect 4:0 turnover ratio in every Seahawks game.

[Al B. Sure!]

Turnovers are basically luck. Small sample size drastically changes the outcome.

No. Turnovers are not luck. You want to provide evidence for your assertion?

Fumble recoveries are luck. Forcing fumbles is skill.

Interceptions are skill. A lot goes into an interception. The QB might have been pressured. He might have not read or been confused by the defensive look. He might have been predictable. The WR might have ran the wrong route or failed in some other way. The DB might have read the QB's eyes. The DB might have taken a calculated risk to a jump a route. There's a ton of other factors that could go into an interception but to think interceptions are a result of luck.... what?

It's beyond comprehension that you would think interceptions are luck.

All else being equal, are you telling me that you would expect the team that puts up fewer yards to win more often than the team that puts up more?

No. I am not telling you that. What I'm telling you is there are many factors, such as special teams and turnovers, that demolish the simple idea that more yards = more points.

A team could go down the field once on an 80yd drive and score a TD and on their second drive, get 0 yards and punt. Another team could put together two 70yd drives (140yds total) and come away with only two FG's. The team with only 80yds is beating the team with 140yds. It's not fluky or luck.

All else being equal assumes neutral turnovers and neutral special teams.

You can't assume neutral turnovers or special teams. The Seattle Seahawks have a superior defense with some superb DB's (Sherman, Earl Thomas, Chancellor). This defense led the league in turnovers! It's not a freaking neutral league-average defense!

Their kick returner in the Super Bowl was Percy Harvin. Percy Harvin has now returned 6 kicks for touchdowns and has an elite 28.2 yards per kick return. In 2012, he averaged an unbelievable 35.9 yards per kick return on 16 returns.

Again, there's nothing neutral about the Seahawks' special teams. They have an elite returnman in Harvin.

Yeah, a kick return for a TD and a pick-six are flukey luck based results.

Never speak on football again.

Yes, but you're balancing the Seahawks performance against teams not the Broncos, and the Bronco's performance on teams not the Seahawks. This introduces systematic bias. I'm using just their in-game performance against each other.

Umm... the offensive yards per point is the Hawks performance against teams not the Broncos and vice-versa!

So your solution is to go with the league freaking average?!

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm trying to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. We wouldn't expect 4:0 turnover ratio in every Seahawks game.

The Seahawks Defense averaged 2.43 turnovers per game. They led the league in getting turnovers.

[Al B. Sure!]

I will say I do appreciate that Ben thinks interceptions are all luck. I mean that's reassuring that he thinks Eli Manning was just incredibly unlucky this season.

What's the league average interception rate? By my calculations, Eli Manning was the best QB in football in 2013 in a neutral assessment with luck taken out of the equation.

Eli should've been the MVP

[Ben Kenobi]

No. Turnovers are not luck. You want to provide evidence for your assertion?

Fumble recoveries are luck. Forcing fumbles is skill.

Well, then. We have it. Turnovers are luck.

The difference between the number 1 INT man of all time and number 200 is 81 and 30. 50 is at 41.

There is just an 11 INT differential between number 50 and number 200.

Passing yards, 50 to 200 is 28,000 and 7,800. There's a 9x difference between number 1 and number 200, vs 2.5x for INTs.

Interceptions are skill. A lot goes into an interception. The QB might have been pressured. He might have not read or been confused by the defensive look. He might have been predictable. The WR might have ran the wrong route or failed in some other way. The DB might have read the QB's eyes. The DB might have taken a calculated risk to a jump a route. There's a ton of other factors that could go into an interception but to think interceptions are a result of luck.... what?

INTs are luck. You can jump the route and play the play perfectly, but you won't get the ball unless you have passes thrown at you.

It's beyond comprehension that you would think interceptions are luck.

Statistically, there's really no comparison between something that requires skill (passing yards for career), and something that relies on luck (INTs).

No.

Thank you.

What I'm telling you is there are many factors, such as special teams and turnovers, that demolish the simple idea that more yards = more points.

If when all else is considered equal - yardage still makes it more likely that you win, then I don't see how the concept is demolished.

A team could go down the field once on an 80yd drive and score a TD and on their second drive, get 0 yards and punt. Another team could put together two 70yd drives (140yds total) and come away with only two FG's. The team with only 80yds is beating the team with 140yds. It's not fluky or luck.

Taking it for a pick six is about 10x the luck added to an INT.

You can't assume neutral turnovers or special teams.

You're telling me you predicted a 4:0 Seahawks turnover ratio, a pick 6 and a Kickoff return for a TD before the game started? No.

Then sit your ass down.

This defense led the league in turnovers! It's not a freaking neutral league-average defense!

Yeah, ok. Show me where you predicted this beforehand.

Percy Harvin has now returned 6 kicks for touchdowns and has an elite 28.2 yards per kick return. In 2012, he averaged an unbelievable 35.9 yards per kick return on 16 returns.

Oh looky, more rate stats.

Again, there's nothing neutral about the Seahawks' special teams. They have an elite returnman in Harvin.

Which is why you predicted a Harvin return for a TD? No?

AND you're freaking ignoring DEFENSE on top of that! What sense does that make to ignore HALF THE GAME?!

You didn't predict a Harvin return for a TD, or a pick six off manning or a 4:0 turnover ratio. Arguing all these things were true in hindsight means nothing.

Looking at the actual stats:

Seahawks were 26th in return yards.

Point differential favored the Broncos. So even given the amazing Seahawks D, it wasn't enough to overcome the Denver Offense. There's nothing there to indicate that the ability to get turnovers outweighed the Bronco's ability to score.

[Al B. Sure!]

WHAT THE **** DID YOU PREDICT????

I predicted the Seahawks winning.

[Ben Kenobi]

I predicted the Seahawks winning.

Did you predict a Harvin return for a TD? A pick-six? No?

Why not, Albie? You said these things aren't luck. You're so confident in the Seahawks D and yet you didn't predict any of these things. Why is that?

Could it be because it's simply luck and unpredictable as a result?

I believe I predicted that the reason the Seahawks do well is because Russell Wilson stays in the pocket, and I was right. He won a superbowl because of it.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Wait, so now you two are arguing over how to predict the outcome of a game that has already been played?

Good lord...

It's mostly because Ben is a complete moron who makes up stats and for some reason Alby thinks he can get Ben to admit stupidity.

[Al B. Sure!]

Did you predict a Harvin return for a TD? A pick-six? No?

Why not, Albie? You said these things aren't luck. You're so confident in the Seahawks D and yet you didn't predict any of these things. Why is that?

Could it be because it's simply luck and unpredictable as a result?
.

No, I didn't predict it because WHY THE HELL WOULD I PREDICT INDIVIDUAL FREAKING PLAYS?!

I made no statement or prediction about the game besides Seahawks would win and total points would be 38, which was wrong. I didn't predict a Harvin return but I also didn't not predict a Harvin return.

I was so confident in the Seahawks D, offense, and special teams that I thought they would win. How the **** do you expect me to predict the exact number of sacks, interceptions, defensive scores, safeties, return scores, return yards, or whatever else?

[snrjefe]

In response to the snippets of Ben comments that are getting past the ignore feature: http://youtu.be/_n5E7feJHw0

[Al B. Sure!]

In response to the snippets of Ben comments that are getting past the ignore feature: http://youtu.be/_n5E7feJHw0

Did you read the part where he says that interceptions are pure luck and don't require any talent?

[-Jrabbit]

Interesting. So now it's luck. I guess it's not surprising, coming from the guy who couldn't wait to post standings after going 4-0 predicting the first round of the playoffs, but then went 1-3 the second week, couldn't face losing and declined to participate after that. (Wuss.)

So of course Ben now argues that the game results are luck. Got it.

[snrjefe]

Did you read the part where he says that interceptions are pure luck and don't require any talent?

Yes, that's one of those nuggets of comedic gold that came through. Kick return and pick 6 were luck. Lawlz to the walz...

Denver flat out sucked and Seattle came to play. Seattle could afford to take chances on defense and just had to grind out the clock on offense. Stats tell A story, not THE story.