NFL 2013 Season Thread

[Ben Kenobi]

WHY THE HELL WOULD I PREDICT INDIVIDUAL FREAKING PLAYS?!

You were the one who said it was predictable that Harvin would take one all the way. Easy to predict. Yet, you didn't, hindsight is 20/20. The reason you didn't predict it is because it was unlikely to happen and that it's unpredictable.

[Ben Kenobi]

coming from the guy who couldn't wait to post standings after going 4-0 predicting the first round of the playoffs, but then went 1-3 the second week, couldn't face losing and declined to participate after that.

Ha, I guess it stung after I kicked your ass.

I played it survival style. I had fun, that's for sure. Sorry to hear you didn't.

[SlowwHand]

You guys are obviously bastard sons of Imran's. "I knew Seattle would win" or "I was cheering for Seattle from the beginning" is a bull**** lie for the most part.

[Ben Kenobi]

Did you read the part where he says that interceptions are pure luck and don't require any talent?

You ain't gonna catch any balls if you don't get thrown to.

Since Albie believes that they are all skill - let's see him predict 2014-2015s interception king. Have at it Albie.

[Ben Kenobi]

"I knew Seattle would win" or "I was cheering for Seattle from the beginning" I'd a bull**** lie for the most part.

Albie's long on 20/20 predictions after the fact.

[Ben Kenobi]

It's mostly because Ben is a complete moron who makes up stats and for some reason Alby thinks he can get Ben to admit stupidity.

Right, after which Albie did some searching and discovered that no, I'm not making the stat up at all.

[Al B. Sure!]

You were the one who said it was predictable that Harvin would take one all the way. Easy to predict. Yet, you didn't, hindsight is 20/20. The reason you didn't predict it is because it was unlikely to happen and that it's unpredictable.

Where, please tell me where, I said it was predictable that Harvin would return a touchdown? I mentioned Harvin only to point out that the Seahawks did not have a league average special teams unit. Harvin is an above average returnman.

I'm waiting for you to tell me where I said it was predictable.

Ha, I guess it stung after I kicked your ass.

I played it survival style. I had fun, that's for sure. Sorry to hear you didn't.

No one else played it survival style. That wasn't the ****ing game.

You ain't gonna catch any balls if you don't get thrown to.

Since Albie believes that they are all skill - let's see him predict 2014-2015s interception king. Have at it Albie.

So something takes skill if it's predictable. Why don't you predict who will have the most passing yards, who will have the most touchdown passes, the highest cmp%, the highest passer rating, the highest Y/A. Go ahead, Ben.

Right, after which Albie did some searching and discovered that no, I'm not making the stat up at all.

You turned a metric, one of many, used to determine how good a team is into a backwards metric used to determine how lucky a team is.

If we followed your logic with regards to yards per point of assuming a team that deviates from the league average only if they're lucky than the Broncos and every other team above 8-8 was just incredibly lucky and not actually good. Your usage of yards per point would be the same as saying that total yards is a good indicator of how lucky a team is. I mean the more total yards the better a team's chances of winning are, right? So if a team racks up more than 1 standard deviation of the league mean of average yards, that means they were lucky, not actually good.

Average yards per game in 2013 was 348yds. When they played the Titans, the Broncos had 551 yards. Including the playoffs, they had 7 games with over 500yds. I don't have time to calculate how many standard deviations from the mean that is, but I can eyeball and tell that the Broncos must have been very lucky!

[Ming]

THANK GOD THEY ACTUALLY PLAY THE GAME TO SEE WHO IS GOING TO WIN THAN JUST LOOK AT SEASON STATS AND AWARD THE VICTORY!

Football includes offense, defense and special teams. Denver simply sucked and they lost.
But in Ben Land, they were just unlucky.

I guess he didn't watch the game, or he would have seen that Seattle out played them and EARNED the victory.

[Donegeal]

Does Aeson pay Ben to make stupid posts just to increase activity level?

That can't be, Ben's been making idiotic post for MUCH longer than Aeson has been around...

[Ming]

No need to pay Ben... he'll make stupid posts all on his own... repeatedly...

[MRT144]

So they won because they fluked out and scored on special teams and defense? Works for me.

The only fluke play was that safety. Everything else was just execution on the part of the seahawks plain and simple. Why do you always try and diminish stuff that you mentally cant grapple with, like your opinions being wrong and factually stupid.

[MRT144]

Over the course of an entire season, average yards per point works out to about 15, over all teams and all games. This is a relatively large sample.

The seahawks having 5 yards per point in the superbowl game means that they were extremely lucky. Not only were they lucky, but Denver was also unlucky in terms of yardage and points scored. Ergo, given neutral luck, and their individual performances in that game, Denver should have won 18-15. Which is about where the bookies (and the general public had it).

Sometimes a team has a freak day where everything goes right, every bounce goes their way. That was the superbowl for the Seahawks.

As for penalties, it's exactly equivalent to boosting Manning by the penalty yardage received. The math doesn't change the difference.

This is missing the forest for the trees. Assigning such a strong weight to one obscure criteria is your MO. You're setting up a model that doesnt have any predictive value, only psychological wound licking.

[Ben Kenobi]

Where, please tell me where, I said it was predictable that Harvin would return a touchdown? I mentioned Harvin only to point out that the Seahawks did not have a league average special teams unit. Harvin is an above average returnman.

Ok, and how exactly does that translate into a return TD? It doesn't. Again, they were lucky to pull that off.

I'm waiting for you to tell me where I said it was predictable.

If it's not predictable, why are you bringing up Harvin?

No one else played it survival style. That wasn't the ****ing game.

It's how I play it. More fun that way. I could have been just like everyone else and pick the exact same teams so you have a 7-way tie. Boooooring.

So something takes skill if it's predictable. Why don't you predict who will have the most passing yards

I already did. I picked Manning in Fantasy Football.

Now, go on, Albie. INT king for 2015, please.

Right, after which Albie did some searching and discovered that no, I'm not making the stat up at all.

You turned a metric, one of many, used to determine how good a team is into a backwards metric used to determine how lucky a team is.

So you're admitting now, I didn't make up the stat. Thank you.

Your usage of yards per point would be the same as saying that total yards is a good indicator of how lucky a team is.

No, it's not, again that's precisely contrary to my argument.

I mean the more total yards the better a team's chances of winning are, right? So if a team racks up more than 1 standard deviation of the league mean of average yards, that means they were lucky, not actually good.

If they rack up 1 standard deviation on average over the year? That means they were damn good. If they rank up 3 standard deviations over the mean in one game? They were damn lucky. This isn't hard to figure out, Albie.

Average yards per game in 2013 was 348yds. When they played the Titans, the Broncos had 551 yards. Including the playoffs, they had 7 games with over 500yds. I don't have time to calculate how many standard deviations from the mean that is, but I can eyeball and tell that the Broncos must have been very lucky!

Umm, when you get 7+ games over 500 yards? No, that ain't luck anymore, Albie.

[Ben Kenobi]

This is missing the forest for the trees. Assigning such a strong weight to one obscure criteria is your MO. You're setting up a model that doesnt have any predictive value, only psychological wound licking.

Are you arguing that all else being equal, you would expect the team that gained fewer yards after penalties to win more often than the team that racked up more yards?

[Ben Kenobi]

The only fluke play was that safety. Everything else was just execution on the part of the seahawks plain and simple. Why do you always try and diminish stuff that you mentally cant grapple with, like your opinions being wrong and factually stupid

4+ turnover ratio? Yeah, I can see one pick advantage. 4? No. So you'd have the pick where Manning threw it in the Seahawks zone, and not the picks he threw in the other end of the field, any of their TDs and the TD return. That would put them at what? 8-0 at the half? Different game.