Apolyton Fantasy Football

[Ben Kenobi]

Average game = 148.02

I should run the standard deviations. BRB.

Your score is the mean. Your results are 1.53 standard deviations from the mean.

Your team is playing as if it scores 110.37 points every week.

[-Jrabbit]

Well, statistically speaking, someone has to be the outlier...

[Ben Kenobi]

We have nobody at 1-3 or 3-1.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Dispatches from fantasyland, where the dream is dead:

Poly DST:

1. Youth Rights Knights 4-0-0 1.000 617.49 464.56 W-4 4 2
2. Mountain Goats 4-0-0 1.000 516.63 435.61 W-4 8 2
3. Deviations 3-1-0 .750 658.16 530.76 L-1 6 5
4. Purple Drank 3-1-0 .750 573.85 513.08 W-2 13 5
5. Dallas Dwarf Tossers 3-1-0 .750 532.69 382.37 W-2 7 2
6. The Flashtastics 2-2-0 .500 533.38 459.98 W-1 11 6
7. Berz 2-2-0 .500 520.10 463.72 W-1 5 10
8. I'm Thinking RBs 2-2-0 .500 428.93 490.56 W-2 12 13
9. The Mighty Drizzle 1-3-0 .250 452.22 523.81 L-1 1 -
10. Spazz Monkeys 1-3-0 .250 451.44 678.99 L-3 9 4
11. Chester's Tailors 1-3-0 .250 450.25 440.90 L-2 2 2
12. Calamitous Intent 1-3-0 .250 418.55 537.28 L-3 3 4
13. Quarterback AllStars 1-3-0 .250 416.00 507.35 L-2 14 3
14. Savage Hammers 0-4-0 .000 483.05 623.77 L-4 10 4

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Poly IDP

1. Deviations 4-0-0 1.000 721.47 593.36 W-4 9 7
2. Calamitous Intent 4-0-0 1.000 693.95 555.93 W-4 6 3
3. A Dead Horse 3-1-0 .750 605.23 525.09 W-1 4 5
4. Hairball Express 3-1-0 .750 575.40 524.21 W-2 7 7
5. Random Encounter 2-2-0 .500 595.24 566.54 L-1 10 1
6. berz 2-2-0 .500 595.04 611.15 W-1 8 23
7. Mountain Goats 2-2-0 .500 582.69 621.53 L-1 2 3
8. Dallas Dwarf Tossers 2-2-0 .500 569.31 600.71 L-2 11 7
9. Ice Hawks 2-2-0 .500 519.99 545.19 W-2 1 3
10. Vicious Rabbits 0-4-0 .000 591.61 712.09 L-4 12 12
11. Electric Slide Jedi 0-4-0 .000 556.54 686.08 L-4 3 22
12. Forte's Firemen 0-4-0 .000 498.54 563.13 L-4 5 3

-----

Poly Salary Cap

1 Deviations 426.04
2 Dallas Dwarf Tossers 395.66
3 Demoncaps 362.88
4 Ice Hawks 356.57
5 RAH's Crappy pix 354.81
6 Meh 344.26
7 ajhebelteam 339.75
8 Vicious Rabbits 337.35
9 Mingapulcos 334.41
10 berz 332.71
11 A Dead Horse 317.19
12 U Jealous 296.69
13 RB's RBs 296.51
14 Four Racks 294.12
15 Da Boyz 286.06
16 the youngest of them all 273.33
17 Ramsey's team 261.97

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, statistically speaking, someone has to be the outlier...

True, but your luck has been so bad that you're starting to distort the whole league. You're making it rain

If the patterns hold up for two more games, you'll suck up everyone's bad luck. The aggregate sum of all the luck not including you, if distributed equally would put all the other players over their expected wins.

I believe that JR and I at present comprise all the bad luck in the league. Everyone else is at or above their expected wins, if you take out our bad luck.

[EPW]

It's commisseration, Alby. Not competition.

But I do have to ask myself, how unlucky is it to have 178 PPG scored against you?

Through 4 weeks:
Total points scored in IDP = 7,105.01
Total games played (12 teams, 4 weeks) =48
Average game = 148.02

So, yes, a bit unlucky. But I'm really just average in terms of scoring, right in a big bunch of teams from 580-605. The fact that 2 of those teams are 3-1 while I'm 0-4 is a mathematical curiosity. One that should correct itself over 14 games, but with a small sample size, you can't count on that.

I think it's fair to say I haven't been very fortunate in the matchups, but I don't really worry about these things.
I've had years where things totally broke my way. So far, this does not look like one of them.

Although I hate to admit it, I pretty much lucked my way into the finals last year.

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm glad I went with Rex in my money league instead of Henne. Henne looks to be out for the year.

[OzzyKP]

Dispatches from fantasyland, where the dream is dead:

Maybe I'll stay in first place all season and blow it all in the playoffs like I did with baseball.

[-Jrabbit]

Keep a good thought.

[Al B. Sure!]

I need a little advice.

In my money league sans Peyton Manning, I've been forced to rely on Rex Grossman and Josh Freeman who have been okay (averaging 18.5 and 18.75 points respectively) but I need an upgrade. I've been haggling with the Rivers/Romo owner (Romo has averaged 22.75 points) and he's asking for:

Michael Turner and Aaron Hernandez for LaGarrette Blount and Romo

My team is:
RB: Turner, MJD, Best, Moreno, Jacobs, Kendall Hunter
WR: Miles Austin, Marques Colston, TB Mike Williams, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Nate Burleson
TE: Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Fred Davis

You can only start 2 RB's but can start 3-5 WR's (substituting WR's for RB's) and can substitute TE's for WR's (hence why I have so many good TE's).

Should I make this trade? Romo is banged up and he's less of an upgrade than one would think over Rex and Freeman but he is a top-10 QB which is what I need.

I'm 95% there to accept it but I just want reassurance I'm not making a big mistake basically giving up Aaron Hernandez (and his monster outputs) for the extra 4 points per week Romo provides me over Rex.

[MRT144]

Jesus, your team has been banged up so far.

[Al B. Sure!]

Chad Henne is done so Brandon Marshall, though healthy, will take a massive dive in the Matt Moore-led offense.

Yeah, I know, injuries are killing me. It's funny because I knew with Turner, MJD, and Best, I was having 3 injury-risk RB's but they've been the only healthy constant!

I'm going to be cutting Burleson and Moreno and picking up some replacements (maybe Torain and Ridley, who are still available for waivers).

[Al B. Sure!]

But does Turner and Hernandez for Romo and Blount sound good?

I would swap Turner for Blount straight up, frankly but Hernandez for Romo is what gives me pause

[SlowwHand]

Gives you pause? You should jump on it like stink on ****.

[Al B. Sure!]

Fine. Accepted.