Apolyton Fantasy Football

[Ben Kenobi]

Yahoo called the Guy matchup to within .70 points. Off by .38 on Guy and .32 on me. Wow.

[SlowwHand]

I asked in the past if Yahoo bases their point forecasts off individual league settings. I got so many catty remarks that if a true answer was offered, I missed it.

[-Jrabbit]

Have you compared projections for the same player between leagues with different settings? That would probably be revealing...

[SlowwHand]

See, that's what I'm talking about.

[Sparrowhawk]

I just tried that...I used Matt Ryan, Lesean McCoy, Vernon Davis and Calvin Johnson as my sample, checked between the DST league and the IDP league and though the stat projections are the same, the point forecasts seem to me to be based on the league settings.

(Using Week 4 as my sample):
Matt Ryan: DST = 24.28 IDP = 28.57
Lesean McCoy: DST = 16.07 IDP = 17.42
Vernon Davis: DST = 7.87 IDP = 7.84
Calvin Johnson: DST = 17.25 IDP = 15.34

/me

[SlowwHand]

OK, cool. So IDP favors QB some, but DST favors WR. More importantly, they do vary with the settings. Which means Yahoo projections aren't mere crap, like say...
Al's rambling.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, it's remarkable because they were so close. Usually they are way off.

[Sparrowhawk]

Well, it's remarkable because they were so close. Usually they are way off.

Not trying to be obtuse, but what is "they" in your sentence:

Well, it's remarkable because Yahoo were so close. Usually Yahoo projections are way off. (which doesn't make sense to me, but it's what I first thought you meant)
Well, it's remarkable because the two leagues were so close. Usually the two leagues are way off. (second thing I thought you meant, and it might be the case, but it still doesn't make sense to me)

Something else? Please clarify.

/me

[Ben Kenobi]

Something else? Please clarify.

It's unusual for Yahoo to be so close, less than a point off our combined totals, guessing within a point of mine and a point of Guy's.

[Ben Kenobi]

Me and the Fireman battle for the bottom seed. Fortunately this week is the Redskins bye.

Average points scored against Kenobi - 171.25

Average points scored against JR - 178.00

Rabbits are 13 points out of a playoff spot. They, at present, are the 5th best team in the league.

Vicious Rabbits in a very winnable matchup this week, but he plays Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers goes nuts, it's very possible he could end up 0-5 for the season and move up in the points standings into a presumed playoff spot.

[Al B. Sure!]

What? Are Ben and Jrabbit having a pissing contest about who has the unluckier matchups?

[-Jrabbit]

It's commisseration, Alby. Not competition.

But I do have to ask myself, how unlucky is it to have 178 PPG scored against you?

Through 4 weeks:
Total points scored in IDP = 7,105.01
Total games played (12 teams, 4 weeks) =48
Average game = 148.02

So, yes, a bit unlucky. But I'm really just average in terms of scoring, right in a big bunch of teams from 580-605. The fact that 2 of those teams are 3-1 while I'm 0-4 is a mathematical curiosity. One that should correct itself over 14 games, but with a small sample size, you can't count on that.

I think it's fair to say I haven't been very fortunate in the matchups, but I don't really worry about these things.
I've had years where things totally broke my way. So far, this does not look like one of them.

[MRT144]

All that is clear to me is that Jag has the best DST luck ever.

[Jaguar]

I have the easiest points-against in D/ST but the second-worst in Auction. It happens. Both of those teams should be 2-2, but instead one is 4-0 and one is 1-3.

If I'm going to get good luck somewhere, I'd like it to be D/ST, though, where I haven't lost in twenty-two months.

[Ben Kenobi]

All that is clear to me is that Jag has the best DST luck ever.

He's a wizard!

Oh, and the interesting thing is that my *weakest* team is 3-1, and in 4th in Auction league and is favored to go up to 4-1. My good teams are all doing lousy.