Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Hey brain donors, I note that literally all of my predictions regarding Ukraine, Kursk, Pokrovsk etc. have been steadily coming true...

When are you morons going to finally admit that Kursk has been a colossal cluster**** for Ukraine? 🤦🤦🤦

Thx for your input, MoronicMoscowMoby

[MOBIUS]

Hey brain donors, I note that literally all of my predictions regarding Ukraine, Kursk, Pokrovsk etc. have been steadily coming true...

When are you morons going to finally admit that Kursk has been a colossal cluster**** for Ukraine? 🤦🤦🤦

[Dinner]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-suspected-sending-incendiary-devices-212753765.html

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/8dTI8PyCIOQ?si=2Kj6HZ_tM_y5JnIF

[Dauphin]

Google is probably playing the long game, because eventually Russia will owe Google a dollar

(1) The fine is growing $1 + $2 + $4 + $8 + ... = $X
(2) Rearrange (1) to $2 +$4 + $8 + .... = $X - $1
(3) Double (1) and the fine would grow $2 + $4 + $8 + ... = 2 * $X
(4) Combine (2) and (3) to get 2 * $X = $X - $1 or rearranged $X = -$1.

So Google will be owed $1 by Russia.


PS. Don't let mathematical rigor ruin this.

[giblets]

I hope they aren't found in contempt of court when they don't pay up

[BeBMan]

Putin's overspending for quite some now time I hear. So the money has to come from somewhere

[The Mad Monk]

At some point (next year, I think?), the fine will start doubling every day.

I mean, why not?

[The Mad Monk]

Don't drink alcohol, kids, this is what it does to you.

[The Mad Monk]

No, it's been converted to dollars. It's also the Chessboard and Rice story made real, since the fine (for blocking certain Russian propaganda channels on YouTube) started out as 100,000 rubles in 2020 and, in accordance with Russian law, has doubled every week since then.

[Dauphin]

Given the fine is roubles, are we sure it's not like US$50?

[The Mad Monk]

Google has been fined 2.6 decillion dollars.

---

...

By Russia.

...

So that's a thing.

A decillion is a trillion trillion trillion.

World GDP is around 111 trillion dollars.

Russia is just getting sillier every day.

[Bereta_Eder]

snip snip

[Geronimo]

Sorry, I forgot about replying to this: 'explain MOBIUS'

Easy: your pathetically poor reading comprehension skills and, I'm assuming, memory, meant that you completely misunderstood my point*, because obviously Russia had already broken Ukraine's territorial integrity. I was explaining that's exactly what it did to **** Georgia's (and Moldova's) ambitions to join NATO. That's why I explained in an earlier post that it was just ****ing semantics, so there was nothing to be lost in dropping that ambition, because it couldn't be achieved in the first place without Russian cooperation (leaving Ukraine), or a war, e.g. taking sides, which Russia took umbrage over...


*You're like an illiterate version of that guy in the movie Memento... No wonder you're considering voting for Trump 🤦♂️

There absolutely was everything to be lost in legitimizing demands from Russia to forbid a country from ever joining NATO. NATO would be officially and loudly declaring that Russia can secure for itself a veto on a defensive alliances membership. After such a diplomatic windfall of threatening a third country to collectively extract demands from an entire alliance of countries, why shouldn't Russia be expected to make more such demands? This would be an unprecedented commitment from NATO.

Your egregious insults aside, (speaking of reading comprehension I did not say I was thinking of voting for Trump, just that I was undecided of who to vote for and was inviting Trump supporters a last chance to vote for Trump even though it should be obvious the best they hope for was to commit me to a protest vote instead of a Harris vote against Trump but that's for another thread) I am definitely *not* unsympathetic in general to making *concessions* for peace that are designed to maximize chances for peace with little to no impact to the things worth fighting to protect. IMHO, Ukraine had plenty of these cards it should have very publicly tried to play to illustrate that it valued peace with Russia and to undermine Russian propaganda and diplomatic rhetoric such as:

Pass legislation renaming all Bandera landmarks of all kinds and removing all publicly funded and maintained Banderite recognition of any sort. Russia has no right to demand this but Ukraine was perfectly free to deliver it. This would be especially attractive since Bandera was a fascist who brought immense harm to Ukraine.

Repeal all legislation that inconvenienced anyone for speaking or writing in Russian. There's been millions of native Russian speakers throughout Ukraine throughout the history of the Ukrainian language and it makes perfect sense to not only not ban its use in any context but to facilitate its official use. At worst Maybe Ukraine could pass legislation guaranteeing some kind of "first among equals" status for Ukrainian usage in official publications and announcements but anything further than that is deeply offensive.

Ukraine could also ensure any heavy handed anti-Russian national ukrainian government legislation that, for instance, renamed landmarks or areas without any local process initiating the change. Sometimes communities were renamed at the national level despite no support for the change by most of the actual residence. Such national anti-Russian actions are great for building resentment and division but not really for anything else. That said, where the local government was responsible for anti-Russian gestures it would probably be better for the national government to ignore the changes.

Ukraine could also have declared that it was not seeking NATO membership. Signing a binding promise not to do so would likely be a huge mistake but it could have strongly made clear that it was not working towards NATO membership.

I firmly believe that if Ukraine had done all of these things Russia would still have invaded but it might have helped tip one or two democracies to doing a bit more to support Ukraine when Russia inevitably did.

Why are you so convinced that Putin would invade if neither NATO nor Ukraine signed treaties forbidding Ukraine from ever joining NATO and that NATO and Ukraine failing to do so explains the "global south" failing to make sacrifices to oppose the Russian invasion but that if NATO and Ukraine had signed treaties preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO that either Putin would have refrained from invading or that if he did "the global south" would then have stood up ready to do their part and make appropriate sacrifces to reign Russia in?

You've basically said that most of warsaw pact saying that the reason it was ok to invade Czechoslovakia was because Czechoslovakia announcing that someday they might like to a be a neutral country was the kind of change Russia could never tolerate and as such if Ukraine took too long to announce that it would never stop being a neutral or pro-Russian allied country and might like to consider NATO membership then it was inevitable that Russia would invade and win.

Do you have evidence of this? When Putin did in fact invade he showed he didn't mind doing things that fundamentally undermined Russia's broad interests. Why wouldn't he invade anyway? Why does he talk so little about NATO membership when giving his long tirades justifying the special military operation? why did he say Russia would not invade up until the day that it did and invade anyway? What changed with respect to Ukrainian prospects for membership in NATO shortly before Russian committed to the special military operation?

Questions for you Mobius:

Do you take what Putin promises at face value as truth or do you suspect cynical manipulation sometimes?

Do you take what US presidents promise at face value as truth or do you suspect cynical manipulation sometimes?

[N35t0r]

And most former-Soviet republics in Central Asia, as well as Armenia, have turned their backs on Russia despite the ""valid"" excuse Putin had.