Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

dude if Russia will very probably respond to a Nato Invasion of Ukraine by Nuking in spite of knowing full well that this would result in Russia getting nuked then they aren't rational actors and there is no point in trying to treat them as such. If Russia is willing to endure nuclear armageddon for anything less than a regime change invasion of Russia then there is no point in trying to placate them. As irrational actors they would be just as likely, or perhaps even more likely, to nuke without "provacation" as with. Since they are undeterred from using nukes by nuclear retaliation they might even be more likely to try to the "unprovoked" first strike "for the element of surprise!".

Using WMD against countries with WMD is irrational. It is also irrational as a state possessing nukes of your own to restrain your non-nuclear "provocations" in response to nuclear threats to not do so because if you do it will become essential for every country to acquire a credible nuclear stockpile for making their own nuclear demands. That's totally unacceptable. Russia's nuclear blackmail threats have to be blatantly disregarded because:

A: if they are not then every state needs to stockpile nukes, cue end of world countdown.

B: because Russia is either bluffing or bat**** crazy and totally detached from reality in which case it doesn't really matter what you do because there will be no modeling the bat**** crazy actor's responses anyway. So disregard their loony ravings and stick to doing what makes sense regardless.

Russia is bluffing.

Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain, with the United States spending fifty billion dollars per year to keep it's 5,000 warheads up to date. This includes replacing the tritium load every five to ten years in every warhead, because tritium's half life renders it unusable in that time, at roughly $100,000 per shot. Then there's testing and replacement of shaped charges, worn out electronics (due to radiation exposure), and other maintenance. This doesn't even count maintenance and replacement of the missles that carry them. Fifty billion dollars.

Russia claims to have 5,600 warheads.

It spends sixty billion dollars per year.

On its Entire Military.

Not even accounting for corruption.

...and they haven't done a single nuclear test in thirty years.​

[BeBMan]

Putin felt he was backed into a corner and gave an ultimatum that was ignored since before 2008, so that reaction shouldn't have come as a surprise.

Moby the mindreader.

We've been over this a billion times. His response therefore was 'understandable' and the tactics used (with resulting war crimes - not to be condoned - but certainly to be predicted!) expected.

And you're still repeating bull**** as factual. At this point it looks you're making up stuff on purpose.

That is why the war had to be avoided at all costs and why by not avoiding it, the West and Zelensky have done the people of Ukraine a great disservice, to put things extremely mildly... 😒

And that is how you constantly try to shift the blame from the aggressor to the victim.

[giblets]

Ukraine should have avoided war at all costs, by accepting a Russian puppet as their president, because anything else would be seen as leaving the door open for someday joining NATO

[Bereta_Eder]

snip snip

[Geronimo]

There is pragmatism and then there is ideology

when greece declared independence, we pretty much thought we were gonna get slaughtered.

even europe had said that all insurrections are demonic (it was after napoleon) and would not support anything


that's why our national motto is freedom or death (it can be spelled in our blue and white stripes in our flag)


we pretty much thought it was going to be death

why would urkaine accept living under the boot of ANY dictator?

maybe it should. pragmatically


but people aren't always "logical"

Serb, Berz and I guess mobius all maintain that Ukrainians oppose Russia because they are "puppets" of the US and their puppet master forces them to. I don't think the Ukrainians are ready to let their national government be "puppets" of any kind.

[Bereta_Eder]

snip snip

[The Mad Monk]

Well, they should have also declared war on the Soviets, by that logic πŸ˜‰

Churchill probably wanted that, and it would have been a good move, geopolitically speaking.

[Geronimo]

Also, as I've repeatedly said: just because I can see the logic of a side's action or that it's 'understandable'...

DOESN'T MEAN I ****ING SUPPORT IT!!! πŸ™„πŸ™„πŸ™„

It simply means I see why they did that.

I don't support Russia, BUT I see why they did what they did.

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride πŸ‘Ž

Just *why* do you believe this? every year since 2014 Ukraine has been much further from possible NATO membership than it was in any of the years preceding "the coup". Since Russia never invaded during those dangerous years of possible NATO membership why was it obvious he would invade when NATO membership had become an absurd pipe dream for Ukraine?

[Geronimo]

I've explained countless times already about the expansion of NATO, the 2008 red lines etc.

You can deliberately ignore those points if you want, but they are the central basis to my argument.

Putin established a clear red line almost two decades ago, and the West repeatedly ignored it. What happened to Georgia was the obvious and logical conclusion to what would happen to Ukraine.

In 2008 Putin said Russia would never permit Georgian or Ukrainian membership in NATO. So what? How does that possibly explain the special military operation? Ukraine and Georgia were both much further from NATO membership throughout every year after 2014 than they were in 2008. Your next point suggests you should already understand this.

Indeed there is a critical flaw to joining NATO, which is that a nation cannot if it does not have territorial integrity.

So the obvious short circuit is to disrupt that integrity - literally inviting invasion to prevent joining!

**** me, are you that stupid not to see that obvious correlation!?

It's not just Georgia, but also Moldova and Transdinistria! There's real, ongoing history here. It shouldn't come as a surprise!

Putin couldn't have telegraphed more what was going to happen if he tried!

You're saying that it was obvious that Putin was going to invade Ukraine because just before the special military operation he recognized that he would need to invade Ukraine so that it wouldn't have territorial integrity and therefore would no longer be a potential candidate to join NATO? News flash. Putin already occupied (and claimed) all of Crimea. How in the hell could Ukraine have had territorial integrity just before the special military operation?? Did he reason they were about to sign away Crimea? nobody has said that. is that your reasoning? explain Mobius.

Russia tried to join NATO...

Re NK: you're embarrassing yourself by resorting to childish non sequiturs πŸ™„

Russia did not "try" to join NATO. Russia never officially announced interest in joining NATO unlike every other member that has ever joined NATO. West Germany might have been the most ambivalent before joining of any member and even they made their declaration of intent much clearer than Putin's Russia. Putin only casually, verbally asked if Russia might join NATO in a conversation with Clinton to which Clinton replied "why not?". Putin later consistently clarified in various conversation that Russia's path to NATO membership should consider its unique security concerns and strategic interests. Russia never took a single official step to join NATO.

[BeBMan]

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride πŸ‘Ž

"You guys add nothing substantial!"

"I firmly believe..."

[MOBIUS]

Also, as I've repeatedly said: just because I can see the logic of a side's action or that it's 'understandable'...

DOESN'T MEAN I ****ING SUPPORT IT!!! πŸ™„πŸ™„πŸ™„

It simply means I see why they did that.

I don't support Russia, BUT I see why they did what they did.

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride πŸ‘Ž

[MOBIUS]

stop being coy, answer us or drop it. immediately prior and during the "Prague Spring" Czechoslavakia never proposed any new relationship or status change to either warsaw pact or NATO *except* for a Czechoslovakian proposal by Alexander Dubček (as part of the raft of inflammatory and radical "socialism with a human face" proposals) to consider converting Czechoslovakia into a neutral state.in the future. The Warsaw pact singled that out for strong condemnation and repeatedly cited that proposal when justifying the subsequent invasion which Czechoslovakia didn't militarily resist.

Are you seriously proposing that absent the proposal to become neutral the warsaw pact would have stayed out and let "socialism with a human face" proceed? Are you seriously proposing that this history reinforces your assertion that if only Ukraine had officially embraced neutrality that Putin would not have invaded? Just tell us what exactly it is we might read in the history books that will back up any of your assertions.

I answered. You're choosing to ignore.

Hungary was an insurrection that was put down.

I guess in '68 they didn't want to get caught with their pants down and acted harshly. Not all Warsaw Pact members agreed. It actually meant Albania splitting away.

Was Albania punished and invaded? No.

Again stop trying to put words into my mouth. My positions are crystal clear and you're choosing to deliberately ignore them.

Stop embarrassing yourself

[MOBIUS]

Then explain what the **** your points are (other than 'read Wikipedia', which is not explaining your point), because absent some pretty wild leaps of logic, they don't make a lot of sense.

Let's start with an easy one: how was the West cornering Putin when they bent over backwards and turned a blind eye in order to foment trade and having good relations? (Should we mention the fact that you criticize the West for not doing enough enough about Chechnya and Georgia)? Russia was even welcome to join NATO.

Is the world also cornering Kim Jong Un by allowing South Korea to have an arms industry and trading with them, and would be responsible if Kim decided to shell Seoul?

I've explained countless times already about the expansion of NATO, the 2008 red lines etc.

You can deliberately ignore those points if you want, but they are the central basis to my argument.

Putin established a clear red line almost two decades ago, and the West repeatedly ignored it. What happened to Georgia was the obvious and logical conclusion to what would happen to Ukraine.

Indeed there is a critical flaw to joining NATO, which is that a nation cannot if it does not have territorial integrity.

So the obvious short circuit is to disrupt that integrity - literally inviting invasion to prevent joining!

**** me, are you that stupid not to see that obvious correlation!?

It's not just Georgia, but also Moldova and Transdinistria! There's real, ongoing history here. It shouldn't come as a surprise!

Putin couldn't have telegraphed more what was going to happen if he tried!

Russia tried to join NATO...

Re NK: you're embarrassing yourself by resorting to childish non sequiturs πŸ™„

[Geronimo]

Are you all thick? Rhetorical question, I know...πŸ™„

It's a clear event, look it up you morons...

stop being coy, answer us or drop it. immediately prior and during the "Prague Spring" Czechoslavakia never proposed any new relationship or status change to either warsaw pact or NATO *except* for a Czechoslovakian proposal by Alexander Dubček (as part of the raft of inflammatory and radical "socialism with a human face" proposals) to consider converting Czechoslovakia into a neutral state.in the future. The Warsaw pact singled that out for strong condemnation and repeatedly cited that proposal when justifying the subsequent invasion which Czechoslovakia didn't militarily resist.

Are you seriously proposing that absent the proposal to become neutral the warsaw pact would have stayed out and let "socialism with a human face" proceed? Are you seriously proposing that this history reinforces your assertion that if only Ukraine had officially embraced neutrality that Putin would not have invaded? Just tell us what exactly it is we might read in the history books that will back up any of your assertions.

[N35t0r]

Then explain what the **** your points are (other than 'read Wikipedia', which is not explaining your point), because absent some pretty wild leaps of logic, they don't make a lot of sense.

Let's start with an easy one: how was the West cornering Putin when they bent over backwards and turned a blind eye in order to foment trade and having good relations? (Should we mention the fact that you criticize the West for not doing enough enough about Chechnya and Georgia)? Russia was even welcome to join NATO.

Is the world also cornering Kim Jong Un by allowing South Korea to have an arms industry and trading with them, and would be responsible if Kim decided to shell Seoul?