Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

Say "hi" to Serb, for me.

[The Mad Monk]

Your Russian masters must really be fumbling the ball, if this is all you can come up with.

[MOBIUS]

Oerdin doesn't like it, that's the vote of confidence I need! 😁

I'm having fun with you. It's quite clear he's thick as ****. The comedian is actually a clown! So thick that he's actually helping the Russian war effort 🤪

(But he most definitely is a US stooge)

[Dinner]

That is one of the dumber conspiracy theories I have heard.

[MOBIUS]

Conspiracy theory: is Zelenskyy actually a deep mole for Russia...? 🤔

1) Russian is his first language

2) He gave Putin a cast iron excuse to invade by deliberately choosing sides against Russia with NATO over neutrality

3) Deliberately weakening Ukrainian armed forces b by refusing to draft their most able-bodied citizens - 18-25s

4) That dumb offensive to try to take back their territory: first explaining to their enemy where they were going to attack and then dumbly doing so, over and over

5) That other dumb offensive into Kursk so that their best equipment and formations can be systematically destroyed and degraded

6) Deliberately weakening the defences of Ukraine's strategic industrial heartland - now to the extent that they've been forced to sabotage their last remaining coking coal mine for their steel industry

7) Fighting far beyond when it was obvious they were losing, to allow Russia to systematically destroy their infrastructure and industry

I wouldn't want him in charge of my country, that's for sure! 😆

So, come the inevitable peace deal, I'm thinking the BEST they can hope for is a frozen frontline, and a swap of Kharkov territory for Kursk territory. And promising neutrality and never to join NATO.

Yep, he's definitely a Putin stooge 😅

[Dauphin]

The evolution of the timeline for the peace deal to end the special military operation is seemingly consistent with the evolution of the timeline for the end of the special military operation.

[BeBMan]

So Trump's new approach to Ukraine is handled by Kellogg's....

Who knew they gave us both breakfest stuff and - from what I read - an actually competent general. Which is why he wasn't chosen as the new def sec I guess, hehe

He's meanwhile updated the timeline:

https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/01/09/trump-team-shaves-two-months-off-president-elect-s-latest-ukraine-peace-deal-timeline

[BeBMan]

Also this (not war-winning, but pretty amazing nonetheless if confirmed):

https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/12/31/ukraine-says-naval-drone-downs-russian-mi-8-helicopter-in-historic-first

[N35t0r]

There's reports that Ukrainian artillery outnumbers Russian artillery on some fronts:

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/fukraine-s-artillery-advantage-now-3-1-on-1734101290.html

That's pretty significant news, considering that as much as 70% of Ukrainian casualties come from Russian artillery, and that they originally had a 7:1 advantage.

[Jon Miller]

A lot of the military aid to Ukraine takes a while to have an impact. I think that there is hope that the US aid from the last 2 years will still be felt into 2026 and so Ukraine still has time.

I read recently that Ukraine is providing 30% of thier own support, which is good. As long as Europe can provide a lot of the immediate needs, it is likely that Ukraine can continue to last, and we have seen signs that Russia is finally starting to crack.

JM

[Dauphin]

This looks better to use. Source material and details of how they collected. Updated December 2024


Ukraine Support Tracker Data | Kiel Institute

Dataset_Documentation.pdf

Total Military Allocations: US$ 131.5 bn, of which US$ 64.4 bn by the US.
Total Military Commitments: US$ 176 bn, of which US$ 70.5 bn by the US.

So US accounts for 50% allocated, and 42% committed. EU as an entity (i.e., excluding member countries) has been providing far more in financial assistance.

[Dauphin]

Hard to know real figures, because a similar chart in the link below, priced in USD, has the ratio more like $85 bn (non-US) to $70bn (US). And it might just be due to how they calculate 'worth' or the relevant exchange rate.

How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine? | Council on Foreign Relations


They appear to be using the same root source too, given how the data is presented.

[Geronimo]

Same source:

Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by donor & type 2024 | Statista


US Military Aid Euro 52 bn
Other Country Miltary Aid ~ Euro 52 bn and change, I gave up counting when it hit Euro 52bn, but there wasn't much left to count.

that's definitely discouraging.

[Dauphin]

You missed the point. I was drawing attention to the disparities in direct military aid. I would love to see more current comparisons of direct military aid but all that i find are net comparisons of aid of all types. I maintain that unless the current numbers show that the total fraction of direct military aid (the kind of aid that Ukraine quite clearly underlines is by far the most critical for Ukraine's survival) from the US is far less than half of total direct military aid to Ukraine, then Trump will still be in a position to manipulate huge concessions to Russia as terms of his deal.

I will of course be quite happy if you provide a link that showing that non-US direct military aid is much more than half of the total of direct military aid to Ukraine, just as I was happy to see your link suggesting that the US provided much less than half of the net total of all forms of aid to Ukraine.

Same source:

Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by donor & type 2024 | Statista


US Military Aid Euro 52 bn
Other Country Miltary Aid ~ Euro 52 bn and change, I gave up counting when it hit Euro 52bn, but there wasn't much left to count.

[Dinner]

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

Those numbers are as a percentage of GDP and count pledges delivered or not. Pledges are nice but if it takes five years to deliver and the war lasts three then little ends up getting delivered. Still nice to see but the rubber hits the road when weapons are fielded in battle.