Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[MOBIUS]

That doesn't line up with reality. Russian casualties (both in terms of men and in terms of materiel) have been rising steadily in terms of losses per captured km², so it's far more likely that the increased gains come at the expense of extra losses. Both this trend and Russian advances in the east started before the Kursk offensive, and there hasn't been a marked inflection point around that date, so the facts don't match your claims.



Do you have any actual data on Ukrainian desertions being up, and that being due to the Kursk offensive?



I don't, because first, that's crass. Second, it doesn't matter the size of your tool, but how you use it. And third, I'm not any sort of troglodyte still stuck using an antiquated measurement system.

Casualties: look at the websites the BBC and I think Mediazona? set up searching social media etc. Same for Ukraine.

Russian casualties: far fewer than 'official' Western! figures

Ukraine casualties: far higher than 'official' Western figures

Materiel: there are some interesting resources about how Russia is able to return ~80% of its knocked out tanks/armoured vehicles, because of the way they're built to be easily repaired/maintained/cannibalised...

Same with any Soviet era Ukrainian vehicles they capture as they advance...

As opposed to the vastly more complex and costly Western systems

It's like comparing the T-34 to the Panther in WWII...

Also, in the vast majority of armoured vehicles being hit, the occupants survive generally unscathed as most drone strikes disable rather than destroy.

As for desertions, that info is freely available even on Ukrainian sites, including massive attrition rates of entire brigades through desertion. Clue: Google 155th Mechanised Brigade 😇

Only today they're talking about the mass and ongoing movement of something like 50k+ servicemen from air defences, rear echelon units etc into the infantry...

It's there in black and white, but you're too brainwashed to realise you're hopelessly out of your depth 😢

Talking of depth:

Even if it's only 3 inches into the sand, you're still not penetrating the truth, but rather being an ostrich instead 😘😘

[MOBIUS]

So, MOBIUS posts from back then are mysteriously gone, so it's hard to disprove his words that aren't there, bit in that Geronimo post, he was replying to:


Slightly over one month after the Ardennes offensive, the Nazis had lost 25% of the troops and 1/3 of the tanks and assault guns they had committed, and were back to their starting positions. One month later, the allies had already crossed the Rhine. Two months later, they had surrounded the remains of an army group in the Ruhr. Six months after it, the remaining German forces surrendered.

'Mysteriously gone'... 🤣🤣🤣

One of you C*NTS deleted a quarter of my posts and multiple threads of mine - my post count was comfortably in excess of deity level and some hypocritical sh*tbrain thought it would be funny to delete >2,500 of my posts...

In fact y'all a bunch of hypocrites because I think only TMM even said anything about it. Ming himself was super defensive about it - so likely either he did it, or he definitely knows about it... 🙄

So, even with your own quote of my post, I only ask it as a question, not as a definitive thing that Russia was going to immediately take the bait and try to take it back.

In fact, I distinctly remember saying in an additional supporting post that the territory Ukraine took in Kursk was tactically insignificant farmland and that if Putin was smart he could take his time because Ukraine's forces were in an exposed salient and he can use it to rally Russian public in support of being invaded.

I also said that the Russians could fix those Ukrainian forces in place and destroy their best units in situ, while they take advantage of taking strategically critical territory in the Donbas - incidentally where the majority of those rare earth elements Trump wants are... D'oh, that was ****ing dumb! 🤦🤦🤦 At least he's given them a good incentive to take them back! 😆

I would argue that's exactly what's happening 👍

Just like I said they wouldn't attack Pokrovsk directly, as Ukraine would be too busy trying to defend there and do Russia could aim to take other less defended areas instead...

Find those posts, instead of cherry-picking a couple of quotes to suit your faulty narrative...

And... If those posts no longer exist...? Blame that Trump-enabling ****wit*, Ming... 🤣🤣🤣

[Geronimo]

Does Trump know how desirable the real estate in Crimea is? He could have the US occupy it, and cut out the Russians!

don't give him any ideas...

[Uncle Sparky]

Does Trump know how desirable the real estate in Crimea is? He could have the US occupy it, and cut out the Russians!

[BeBMan]

Given Russia's losses in tanks maybe the comparison wasn't so bad, just that he confused the sides...

[N35t0r]

What's the cute face supposed to tell us? Anyway be careful what you say about this foggy situation. Even if Ukraine ends up withdrawing from all of Kursk this decision to invade Kursk could have done overwhelming damage if Russia made the mistake of piling tons of valuable targets just beyond HIMARS range.

Also Third Reich didn't fail in the West because of the Battle of the Bulge. They lost because the Axis couldn't hope to begin to match Allied economic and manpower advantages.

Tell us how the incursion is insane however.

So, MOBIUS posts from back then are mysteriously gone, so it's hard to disprove his words that aren't there, bit in that Geronimo post, he was replying to:

Interesting question: is this strategically insane incursion into Russia Ukraine's Battle of the Bulge moment...?

One final desperate roll of the dice that ****s their last remaining reserves.

Looks like it to me 🙄

Slightly over one month after the Ardennes offensive, the Nazis had lost 25% of the troops and 1/3 of the tanks and assault guns they had committed, and were back to their starting positions. One month later, the allies had already crossed the Rhine. Two months later, they had surrounded the remains of an army group in the Ruhr. Six months after it, the remaining German forces surrendered.

[N35t0r]

No I haven't. Ukraine was holding its own generally, until the Kursk offensive. That is what's ****ed them in the Donbas.

That doesn't line up with reality. Russian casualties (both in terms of men and in terms of materiel) have been rising steadily in terms of losses per captured km², so it's far more likely that the increased gains come at the expense of extra losses. Both this trend and Russian advances in the east started before the Kursk offensive, and there hasn't been a marked inflection point around that date, so the facts don't match your claims.

So if they carry on with dumbass tactics, yes they certainly risk a collapse in the relatively near future. Their army knows they're ****ing up, hence the increasing numbers of desertions - you don't want that to turn into a flood...

Do you have any actual data on Ukrainian desertions being up, and that being due to the Kursk offensive?

When you tell girls you've got 6 inches, do you actually mean you've only got 3 inches instead...!? 🤣🤣🤣

I don't, because first, that's crass. Second, it doesn't matter the size of your tool, but how you use it. And third, I'm not any sort of troglodyte still stuck using an antiquated measurement system.

[MOBIUS]

Right. Which is why you've been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukrainian lines for almost a year already, are parroting Putin's talking points, and seem to believe that nobody in Russia has any agency whatsoever.

Oh, and half of what you say about Ukraine doesn't match with what actual Ukrainian refugees I've met say (including a couple who have become very close friends of ours).

No I haven't. Ukraine was holding its own generally, until the Kursk offensive. That is what's ****ed them in the Donbas.

So if they carry on with dumbass tactics, yes they certainly risk a collapse in the relatively near future. Their army knows they're ****ing up, hence the increasing numbers of desertions - you don't want that to turn into a flood...

That was only 6 months ago.

When you tell girls you've got 6 inches, do you actually mean you've only got 3 inches instead...!? 🤣🤣🤣

[BeBMan]

I think it's cuz them Ukrainians found out about this whole brother people scam.

[N35t0r]

I'm shocked by how anti-Russian my Ukrainian friends have become. Not only did they originally seem fine with Russia but I would never have thought them capable of such hostility in general. it's been painful to witness.

You're... shocked?

You saw the US' reaction to 9/11 and the hatred towards Arabs and Muslims in general that brought, and are shocked that something that has been essentially that for over three years, plus torture and execution of POWs, plus actual parts of Ukraine being occupied since before that has resulted in a similar reaction?

[Uncle Sparky]

While I haven't seen any polling, I suspect currently very few citizens of Gaza see Israel as an 'excellent friend'.
I would also guess that far fewer Canadians currently see the US as a 'trusted ally' compared to six months ago.

[The Mad Monk]

I'm shocked by how anti-Russian my Ukrainian friends have become. Not only did they originally seem fine with Russia but I would never have thought them capable of such hostility in general. it's been painful to witness.

Unbelievable what constant bombardment can do to people.

[Dinner]

It happens to all sorts of people, this falling through a rabbit hole of propaganda, eh?

Yes, you certainly have with the TDS stuff.

[Geronimo]

I'm shocked by how anti-Russian my Ukrainian friends have become. Not only did they originally seem fine with Russia but I would never have thought them capable of such hostility in general. it's been painful to witness.

[N35t0r]

I would say that the opposite is true, given that I use neutral commentators for my information, and 'respectable' sites like ISW, because the maps don't lie...

Remember we were consistently and systematically lied to about Iraq, so why don't you think you're being lied to about what's happening in Ukraine...?

Those of us who were against the US invasion of Iraq after 9/11 immediately saw through the BS, while the majority of people on this forum were sucked in by the lies like a bunch of mind controlled sheep!

Some of you in this very thread, I might add... 🙄🤦

Right. Which is why you've been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukrainian lines for almost a year already, are parroting Putin's talking points, and seem to believe that nobody in Russia has any agency whatsoever.

Oh, and half of what you say about Ukraine doesn't match with what actual Ukrainian refugees I've met say (including a couple who have become very close friends of ours).