Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

Meanwhile, in a clearly unimportant backwater nowhere near a line between Moscow and St. Petersburg, something went BOOM.

[BeBMan]

Not bad for a country that Putin thinks doesn't exist to get him to negotiate POW swapses.

[The Mad Monk]

Especially considering he is trading mostly hardened soldiers for mostly untrained kids.

[Dinner]

Pchang, that is actually a good thing as for at least the last year Putin has been refusing to engage in prisoner swaps. So, for Ukraine, it is good he has finally been forced to relent.

[pchang]

They have conducted the 2nd POW swap since Kursk a few days ago.

[N35t0r]

I would also add that politically it lets Putin use his conscripts against Ukraine without the need for the politically toxic groundwork of legally allowing such use. it's already permitted under Russian law within Russia itself. However, the presence of Ukrainian military occupying any part of pre-conflict Russia may be so politically damaging to Putin along with the fallout of using (legally or not) the conscripts in a war he may be perceived as responsible for that Putin may be brought back to negotiating. That is probably what Ukraine was gambling on.

It's also true that the Russian salient pointing towards Pokrovsk doesn't have any serious natural barriers to protect it and Russia will not realize the strategic benefit of the advances in that area until it captures at least enough of Pokrovsk to deny its functionality as a logistical hub for Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine is preparing a devastating counterattack? I think the time to call Ukraine's Kursk offensive foolish is not yet ripe. We'll have to see what Russia actually has when their offensive culminates or at least wait until they have decisively denied Pokrovsk as a hub for Ukrainian operations.

There were already conscripts captured by Ukraine in Kursk, and it led to Russia actually agreeing to a POW swap directly with Ukraine (previous ones were negotiated by Turkey)

[Geronimo]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/09...o-live-forever

IIRC DS9 had an episode about anti-aging

Perhaps Putin is aware of individual(s) whose mortality and age may soon catch up with them who are so vital to the well-being of the Russian Federation that it would collapse without them! This would make the aging process an existential enemy to the federation! A national project to combat it may be the only hope for the future viability of Russia!

[BeBMan]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/09/03/who-wants-to-live-forever

IIRC DS9 had an episode about anti-aging

[BeBMan]

It's called basic map reading skills...

The Ukrainians have captured land in a sparsely populated backwater of a backwater region, while jeopardising and degrading their best units and equipment...

Meanwhile, the Russians have been making accelerated gains in a relatively built up and industrialised, strategically significant portion of the Donbas - one of their key strategic goals...

But hey... 🙄🤷♂️

Lies! Russia does not have any backwater regions

[The Mad Monk]

Sometimes, it's worthwhile to see what the other side is saying.

[Dinner]

BTW Mobius, you might be an insane lunatic but you should still join CG's discord.

[Dinner]

We don't know what public opinion on the war in Russia is as it has been criminalized to speak out against Putin's war of aggression.

[Geronimo]

It's called basic map reading skills...

The Ukrainians have captured land in a sparsely populated backwater of a backwater region, while jeopardising and degrading their best units and equipment...

Meanwhile, the Russians have been making accelerated gains in a relatively built up and industrialised, strategically significant portion of the Donbas - one of their key strategic goals...

But hey... 🙄🤷♂️

I would also add that politically it lets Putin use his conscripts against Ukraine without the need for the politically toxic groundwork of legally allowing such use. it's already permitted under Russian law within Russia itself. However, the presence of Ukrainian military occupying any part of pre-conflict Russia may be so politically damaging to Putin along with the fallout of using (legally or not) the conscripts in a war he may be perceived as responsible for that Putin may be brought back to negotiating. That is probably what Ukraine was gambling on.

It's also true that the Russian salient pointing towards Pokrovsk doesn't have any serious natural barriers to protect it and Russia will not realize the strategic benefit of the advances in that area until it captures at least enough of Pokrovsk to deny its functionality as a logistical hub for Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine is preparing a devastating counterattack? I think the time to call Ukraine's Kursk offensive foolish is not yet ripe. We'll have to see what Russia actually has when their offensive culminates or at least wait until they have decisively denied Pokrovsk as a hub for Ukrainian operations.

[BeBMan]

Russia is advancing in the Donbas, but so is Ukraine in Russia. When everyone is advancing, noone is advancing.
#myownresearch

Nah, but Putin's gains in the last regional elections in Germany are a notable success...

[N35t0r]

That while Ukraine is chewing through its best units and equipment in a strategic backwater, Russian gains are accelerating across the strategically critical Donbas front...

Ukraine has failed to get Russia to divert its forces from those critical areas and has only exacerbated the rapidity in which they're falling. As I said would happen in the beginning...

Do you have actual evidence for all of this, or is it mroe 'trust me bro' and 'blindingly obvious'.