Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

That's right. They seized Crimea for the warm water port and ownership of the oil rights.

[Geronimo]

On the other hand, if you have your own linked sources that show up that Pokrovsk is safe for another 2 years I guess I'd literally be happy to read that and I hope they make a convincing argument

[Geronimo]

You haven't presented any links that says the ukrainians are in any danger. About Pokrovsk, it will probably take yet two years before it falls. All what the ukranians has in their sleeve is yet another defensive site that will destroy even more of the russian army.

I will not. We are all free to speculate. I'm not claiming some linked authority whom I trust to have reliable information *and* will impartially share it with the public is the source of my claim that if Ukraine doesn't have any surprises up it's sleeve that Vulehdar finally falling in concert with broad Russian advances including a real threat to Pokrovsk, indicates a real threat of the entire eastern front collapsing. Vulehdar and other indications of advance seem to indicate that Russia retains initiative along the entire eastern front which makes less room for a Ukrainian surprise.

The problem with waiting for the linked experts is that they have their own skin in the game based on prior predictions and they have almost as much trouble getting good information as the general public does.

[giblets]

The problem is that they never had to resist Russia in the first place.

If you eschew neutrality, you're against the person you're no longer neutral to and that person often takes offence...

It's two and a half years. Have you guys finally figured that out yet...?

Arguably in Ukraine's case it's been 16 years, since Putin's red line speech in 2008... 🙄

They eschewed neutrality by getting rid of a president Russia likes, seems like "neutrality" actually means being submissive to Russia.

[Geronimo]

The problem is that they never had to resist Russia in the first place.

If you eschew neutrality, you're against the person you're no longer neutral to and that person often takes offence...

It's two and a half years. Have you guys finally figured that out yet...?

Arguably in Ukraine's case it's been 16 years, since Putin's red line speech in 2008... 🙄

When Russia seized Crimea and started a civil war in the Donbass Ukraine was neutral. Apparently Russia wasn't going to leave that as an option for them

[BlackCat]

The steady encroachment on the entire front could precipitate a collapse of the Eastern front if Pokrovsk falls. I already say if Ukraine has nothing up it's sleeve because there just isn't much land to trade for time and resources left between there and the front.

You haven't presented any links that says the ukrainians are in any danger. About Pokrovsk, it will probably take yet two years before it falls. All what the ukranians has in their sleeve is yet another defensive site that will destroy even more of the russian army.

[giblets]

👆

It's taken some of you six weeks to begin to independently understand a situation that was obvious to begin with...

That's quite impressive even by poly standards 🙄

Of course, there are still the stubborn laggards like BC who remains utterly convinced that Ukraine is winning...👍

How tragic, don't they realize resisting Russia is futile?

[BeBMan]

I was being unfair on the Germans, as they penetrated to a distance of ~60km during the Battle of the Bulge...

The Ukrainians are losing a significant chunk of their best equipment and units in this 'adventure'.

I think it was naive to expect the Russians to peel away their forces in the Donbas, and that has patently not happened as they continue advance significantly across multiple strategically important areas.

I'm expecting the Russians to blunt the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. Once those forces lose their momentum in enemy territory, they will be dangerously exposed to drone strikes and glide bombs etc.

We're only a week in. The Battle of the Bulge took six weeks.

Time flies.

[Geronimo]

Who's to say Pokrovsk is the primary objective.

It occurred to me a few weeks back that if one was to make the other side believe it was, then larger gains could be made elsewhere - as we're already beginning to see.

If only Ukraine had quality reserves to draw on to plug the gaps, or launch targeted counter attacks against identified weak points...? 🤔

Oh wait, they got squandered in the foolishness of Kursk! 🙄

it's a logistical hub with no substitute.

[Geronimo]

Yes, an then, in this case, no. UAF is mainly fighting a defensive attrition war an there high ground is good - the russians don't have to worry about defending the site since the ukrainians won't be stupid enough to attack it.



I'm a bit curious about where you get your information from because there aren't any risk of the ukrainian lines is about to collapse. Yes, they have left Vuhledar and retreated to the next line of defense placed on high ground a couple of kilometers back, so now the russians have to repeat what they have used almost two years to achieve, probably with the same vast amount of losses.

The steady encroachment on the entire front could precipitate a collapse of the Eastern front if Pokrovsk falls. I already say if Ukraine has nothing up it's sleeve because there just isn't much land to trade for time and resources left between there and the front.

[BlackCat]

I believe he is referring to the fact that Vuhledar is supposedly a railway and highway junction. So logistics get more complicated if that city is either taken or is under artillery fire control.

According to the map there are neither a railroad nor a higway junction in Vuhledar.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vuhledar,+Donetsk+oblast,+Ukraine,+85670/@47.7833027,37.2488809,5781m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x40e0ac0fc99f9375:0x40c176da291b20ca!8m2!3d47.779793!4d37.2490235!16zL20vMGd0cTVt?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAwMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

[Dinner]

I believe he is referring to the fact that Vuhledar is supposedly a railway and highway junction. So logistics get more complicated if that city is either taken or is under artillery fire control.

[BlackCat]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal.

Yes, an then, in this case, no. UAF is mainly fighting a defensive attrition war an there high ground is good - the russians don't have to worry about defending the site since the ukrainians won't be stupid enough to attack it.

I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

I'm a bit curious about where you get your information from because there aren't any risk of the ukrainian lines is about to collapse. Yes, they have left Vuhledar and retreated to the next line of defense placed on high ground a couple of kilometers back, so now the russians have to repeat what they have used almost two years to achieve, probably with the same vast amount of losses.

[BeBMan]

Three days it's all over. Ooops.

[Geronimo]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal. I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2knzxn9x7o