Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal.

Yes, an then, in this case, no. UAF is mainly fighting a defensive attrition war an there high ground is good - the russians don't have to worry about defending the site since the ukrainians won't be stupid enough to attack it.

I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

I'm a bit curious about where you get your information from because there aren't any risk of the ukrainian lines is about to collapse. Yes, they have left Vuhledar and retreated to the next line of defense placed on high ground a couple of kilometers back, so now the russians have to repeat what they have used almost two years to achieve, probably with the same vast amount of losses.

[BeBMan]

Three days it's all over. Ooops.

[Geronimo]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal. I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2knzxn9x7o

[pchang]

When generals are driving Maybachs and living in mansions, that money had to come from somewhere.

[The Mad Monk]

I wonder why this is difficult after so many earlier reliable rocket families.

No great mystery there; it's the same reason that their early warning system failed, their body armor is fake, and the tires were literally coming off their trucks when they initially invaded Ukraine; officials and suppliers lining their pockets with cash after buying second and third rate components, and pencil whipping maintenance documents.

[Jon Miller]

The USSR (and Russia) had an incredible education system for mathematical studies. I know many incredible algorithm engineers, algorithm scientists, physicists and other types of engineers from states that were part of the USSR in the US, South America and Europe. All left Russia, or the neighboring states, decades ago. Some support Russia over Ukraine, but none want to live in Russia.

JM

[N35t0r]

Ever since the 90's, pretty much the only technical field that has had decent salaries has been oil and gas, so there's been consistently fewer and fewer good professionals in other technical fields over the past 30 years.

[Dinner]

If you believe Peter Zeihan he has claimed that in 1985 when the USSR was falling apart the government tried to save money by gutting a lot of technical training and education. Modern Russia never really restored it so much of the population age 50 and under lack basic technical skills. So the old trained cadre from Soviet times have all retired or long ago left the country. Many of the few well educated and trained younger people left the country at the start of Putin's war of conquest in Ukraine. This has resulted in a massive brain drain in Russia.

[Geronimo]

One good test waaaaay back in 2018, all BOOMs since.

I wonder why this is difficult after so many earlier reliable rocket families.

[The Mad Monk]

One good test waaaaay back in 2018, all BOOMs since.

[BeBMan]

Just as Putin tries the good old nuke scare again, this kind of BOOM is undermining the whole exercise somewhat:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/24/russias-new-sarmat-missile-suffered-catastrophic-failure-researchers

[The Mad Monk]

Two more BOOMS have occurred. A second ammo dump 10 miles from the first one, and a third near Krasnodar, a city in southern Russia across the way from Crimea.

[Dinner]

Estimated 1 kiloton blast, btw. The Beirut fertilizer blast of 2020 was 1.1 kt.

Sounds like quite the party.

[Dinner]

Meanwhile, in a clearly unimportant backwater nowhere near a line between Moscow and St. Petersburg, something went BOOM.

It is funny how Russia keeps experiencing "smoking accidents". That is the excuse Putin kept blaming for drone strikes blowing up stuff in Russia.

[The Mad Monk]

Estimated 1 kiloton blast, btw. The Beirut fertilizer blast of 2020 was 1.1 kt.