Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[N35t0r]

Can we all at least agree that Kursk has been a total failure?

Igor Girkin doesn't seem to agree:

“In general, in the first ten days of October nothing unexpected (for me) happened: the enemy left part of the city of Ugledar, which became too difficult for them to defend (due to the bypass of the northern flank). Again the enemy retreated on his own, without being defeated or surrounded.
…
There is very little time left before the autumn thaw begins and, it seems, the summer-autumn campaign can be considered over. We can summarize some results (although, perhaps, the Ukrainians could come up with something else before the season of “autumn thunderstorms”):
1) in general, the campaign was a “draw” from the military point of view. The Russian Armed Forces were unable to create the so-called "buffer zone" in the Kharkov region and break through the enemy's defenses there. It was not possible to capture even the immediate target of the offensive, the city of Volchansk, and create a stable bridgehead around it to threaten Kharkov. On the other hand, during the summer we managed to advance the front in the direction of Donetsk by 20-25 km and (in some places) deeper, clearing a fairly large area from the enemy. In turn, the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region, capturing Sudzha (a village-regional center), which “nullified” all our successes and created a vast new area of armed confrontation. Thus, “our gains” are Ugledar and about 40 more settlements, while our “losses” are one and a half districts of the Kursk region occupied by the enemy. It looks like a “tactical draw”.

2) However, this “draw” is only “apparent”. In fact, we (Russia) suffered a strategic military failure this summer/autumn. WE DID NOT REALIZE the plan for a large-scale offensive on Kharkov, for which we had been preparing forces, equipment and reserves for a year. And then we “missed” a not too strong, but very painful blow with the transfer of ground operations to our territory. But THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE LOST TIME. Which is now both for us and for the so-called “Ukraine” (which, as a result, won it) “worth its weight in gold”. The enemy had time to prepare additional forces and reserves and demonstrated the impossibility of defeating them with the “set of tools” that Russia can use within the Northern Military District without switching to a full-scale war and full mobilization to achieve victory. That is: the enemy achieved his goals during the summer-autumn campaign: 1) repelled our offensive with small territorial losses; 2) launched a strong counterattack; 3) kept unused reserves to continue active defensive and offensive operations; 4) sustained in its population and army the belief in victory and the willingness to endure hardships in the hope of it. But we (Russia) did not achieve our goals at all: 1) our attack on Kharkov was “blocked” with very insignificant territorial successes; 2) our offensive in the Donetsk People’s Republic only “shifted” the enemy front, but did not even come close to crushing it; 3) our reserves were spent on repelling the enemy invasion of the Kursk region (which was never completely repelled after 2 months of heavy fighting); 4) what to do now with the enemy army and the war in general – in the framework of the continuation of the special military operation is not entirely clear…”


Also, with NK sending troops to Ukraine, there's high chances of SK sending equipment and ammunition.

Who had proxy Korean war in Europe on their bingo card for this year?

[giblets]

Would be a shame if the Korean troops defected

[Dinner]

That's different because Israel/Zionists have been deliberately targeting/cleansing/genociding Palestinians since, basically 1919. One could argue they're acting in self-defence...

But that is some pretty entertaining chutzpah that you're using the Gaza situation for your Whataboutery 😁🙌

You've really become delusional. No, there is no genocide and I do not feel sorry that Islamic terrorists started a war that they are now losing. It is absolutely perverse how you are supporting the Islamic militants who actually are trying to commit genocide. Just a complete reversal from reality.

[Geronimo]

Good grief, y'all are ****ing deranged! 😅

Mad Monk is the clear winner, wanting to start an unprovoked overt (instead of in the shadows, as it already is) NATO war with Russia and therefore the very probably use of nuclear weapons...

But then, NATO has form on unprovoked wars: Iraq, Serbia, Libya etc... 👍

You're a ****ing lunatic! 🤣🤣🤣

dude if Russia will very probably respond to a Nato Invasion of Ukraine by Nuking in spite of knowing full well that this would result in Russia getting nuked then they aren't rational actors and there is no point in trying to treat them as such. If Russia is willing to endure nuclear armageddon for anything less than a regime change invasion of Russia then there is no point in trying to placate them. As irrational actors they would be just as likely, or perhaps even more likely, to nuke without "provacation" as with. Since they are undeterred from using nukes by nuclear retaliation they might even be more likely to try to the "unprovoked" first strike "for the element of surprise!".

Using WMD against countries with WMD is irrational. It is also irrational as a state possessing nukes of your own to restrain your non-nuclear "provocations" in response to nuclear threats to not do so because if you do it will become essential for every country to acquire a credible nuclear stockpile for making their own nuclear demands. That's totally unacceptable. Russia's nuclear blackmail threats have to be blatantly disregarded because:

A: if they are not then every state needs to stockpile nukes, cue end of world countdown.

B: because Russia is either bluffing or bat**** crazy and totally detached from reality in which case it doesn't really matter what you do because there will be no modeling the bat**** crazy actor's responses anyway. So disregard their loony ravings and stick to doing what makes sense regardless.

[Geronimo]

Diplomacy with Putin has failed. North Korea is now involved in Ukraine, in a state of war in all but name.

Chances are, NK is taking this opportunity to rotate troops into the theatre to gain battle experience, which will be used to train other NK troops, for a future invasion of South Korea.

NATO must act now.

If any country sends its troops into Ukraine to support Ukraine after this Putin can't object. In Syria he made a big deal of the fact that only the Russians were there under official Syrian government invitation. Obviously Neither the Russians nor the North Koreans enjoy that. If Russia can bring in North Koreans to help Ukraine can bring in pretty much anybody to help if they are willing.

[The Mad Monk]

[The Mad Monk]

Diplomacy with Putin has failed. North Korea is now involved in Ukraine, in a state of war in all but name.

Chances are, NK is taking this opportunity to rotate troops into the theatre to gain battle experience, which will be used to train other NK troops, for a future invasion of South Korea.

NATO must act now.

[The Mad Monk]

[BeBMan]

Weird how no one (except the French) seems to roll over and accept a foreign invader

French Scalp missiles have been used quite effectively by Ukraine. It's the same type as the Brit Storm Shadow.

Both were key in forcing the Black Sea Fleet back, and ensure grain exports again.

Which is funny because the Black Sea Fleet used Sevastopol since the 1700s or somesuch.

[Geronimo]

End the war now, while they still can.

They should have never taken sides and risked war in the first place.

If they're lucky, Russia might be persuaded to freeze the current lines - but I doubt it. I would insist on the totality of the 4 'Russian' oblasts, if I were Putin.

Ukraine needs to do this before it is broken on the battlefield militarily. Otherwise, Russia could potentially add the other 4 Russian speaking oblasts, which would include Odessa, and why not...?

That's the simple version. 😉

Can we also agree that Ukraine's advance into Kursk has been a colossal strategic failure for them... Like I called it from the beginning. 🙄

when did they "take sides"? was it when they failed to recognize Russian annexation of Crimea? What makes the 4 Russian oblasts "Russian" is it that most of the inhabitants speak Russian instead of Ukrainian? Are we sure about that?

How do you know Ukraine will be so broken on the battlefield that it will lose all 4 of the demaded oblasts in their entirety? Even if the eastern front collapses that would still leave Russia a hell of a lot of work to somehow reconquer Kherson again.

We might just as well move on to the less simple version IMHO if you can spare the time.

[giblets]

Weird how no one (except the French) seems to roll over and accept a foreign invader

[Ming]

Gee... so I guess the terrorists in the middle east should never have launched their attacks on Israel. Look what it got them. They should never have allowed it to happen. They should just roll over and concede whatever Israel wants before more damage occurs.

[BeBMan]

I think them North Koreans are just there for the 1000-day celebrations of the 3-days war which we're hitting in a few days.

[Geronimo]

what is your actual message with respect to the special military operation and the response of other countries to it Mobius? Is it that the they should stop sending military aid so that Ukrainian resistance is hugely degraded and hopefully collapses so that Russia can depose the regime in Kiev? This will end the fighting and somehow save lives and is inevitable anyway so the sooner the better? Or instead is it that you told us so since before this even hit the fan and this will end badly because nobody listened to you in time and now they should just keep doing what they are doing since it's too late but it's fun to gloat about being right? What are you advocating?

[Ming]

There are already reports of Korean troops deserting...