Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[giblets]

[Dinner]

I thought the incurson/invasion/whateversion would be smashed in three days, but it's two week now...

Syrski has been smartly using geography to Ukraine's advantage by keeping large rivers on each flank this preventing Russia from attacking the flanks. Also, there has been no large organized counter attack by Russia just a bunch of disorganized and fragmented local actions by poorly equipped and poorly trained conscripts. The best Russia has managed so far was a lot of air strikes though Ukraine has put some pretty good air defenses in place which has help.

[Geronimo]

I thought the incurson/invasion/whateversion would be smashed in three days, but it's two week now...

On the one-hand this will increase the military manpower that Putin can use against Ukraine by providing an area where we can use Russia's conscripts against Ukraine so this will be bad for Ukraine. On the other hand Ukraine had basically zero leverage vs Russia in any future negotiations and occupying some Russian territory may provide for that to occur. To really evaluate the decision to invade Russia we would need to know how things would've played out had Ukraine not done so for comparison and obviously no amount of elapsed time is going to reveal that. I'm sure every arm chair general will be claiming that however it plays validates what they have been predicting and recommending all along.

[BeBMan]

I thought the incurson/invasion/whateversion would be smashed in three days, but it's two week now...

[pchang]

It would appear that Putin is trying to in effect expand his army by using conscripts to fight in Kursk. Relatives of the conscripts are starting to complain, but it remains to be seen how effective these complaints will be.

[BeBMan]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/15/they-re-trying-to-cover-it-up

[BeBMan]

The Russians blowing up their own pipeline makes no sense whatsoever 🙄

It was either the Ukrainians, the Americans, or both.

Maybe, maybe not

[N35t0r]

There is no glee on my part whatsoever - that you think that is clearly a symptom of your own cognitive dissonance on the subject - you're too ****ing brainwashed to see the truth 😥

I already said it was a stupid idea: it's a way to get them more killed, more quickly, losing their best troops and equipment for nothing.

I'm on the side of the Ukrainian people, not their leaders and those that influence them in hastening the destruction of their country...

If anything it's you that's a gleeful accomplice to their destruction, by supporting this folly...

But hey, to the last Ukrainian and death to the Palestinians, right...? 😞

Because the US ably aiding and abetting a monster worse than Putin, in the shape of the Israeli state.

As for Putin, his behaviour is arguably no worse than US foreign policy - maybe he's just more 'honest' in his methods...

Like those silly poles trying to resist Hitler's army in 1939, they should have just surrendered and they would have suffered much less.

[Lorizael]

I'm on the side of the Ukrainian people...

I'm on the side of my Ukrainian colleague, who tells us stories of what it was like to live under Soviet oppression, whose niece had to flee Ukraine at the outset of the war, who loves her country and wants it free and independent. Which Ukrainians are you on the side of?

...and death to the Palestinians, right...? 😞

You really aren't paying attention.

[Uncle Sparky]

Power mad dictator/guy could give Afghanistan another go... it's his turn.

[Lorizael]

The way you can tell MOBIUS really cares about the poor Ukrainians and their poor country being ruined by US imperialism/a desire not to be conquered is the utter glee with which he reports the failure of their attempts to repel an invasion by a power mad dictator/guy who has no other choice, really, when you think about it.

[N35t0r]

If anything, it's providing several cracks to Putin's information lockdown about the war (and the fact that several of the captured conscripts come from the core Russian areas and not from the colonies also doesn't help).

[Geronimo]

I was being unfair on the Germans, as they penetrated to a distance of ~60km during the Battle of the Bulge...

The Ukrainians are losing a significant chunk of their best equipment and units in this 'adventure'.

I think it was naive to expect the Russians to peel away their forces in the Donbas, and that has patently not happened as they continue advance significantly across multiple strategically important areas.

I'm expecting the Russians to blunt the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. Once those forces lose their momentum in enemy territory, they will be dangerously exposed to drone strikes and glide bombs etc.

We're only a week in. The Battle of the Bulge took six weeks.

we'll see. By the time the battle of the Bulge happened in the second world war it was too late for the Third Reich to really do anything other than surrender. The battle of the bulge was a ridiculous long shot for the Nazis and they certainly lost the battle but it didn't meaningfully make their defeat any faster or easier either. I think Ukraine is also very low on options. The important thing is that the Russian defences were breached. At this point it's very difficult to see how the operation was not a good idea for Ukraine regardless of how Russia responds.

[N35t0r]

This, only the problem was for NS1, since NS2 was never operational.

[Geronimo]

The Russians blowing up their own pipeline makes no sense whatsoever 🙄

It was either the Ukrainians, the Americans, or both.

Gazprom was liable for billions if the NS2 pipeline was not in use but not if it were to be destroyed. Russia also owned the gas pipelines to Georgia in 2006. When those pipelines blew up who did you blame for that Mobius? The intact but un-used NS2 was a huge literal liability for Russia and it definitely has directly benefitted from its destruction. That said, the destruction of the pipeline destroys an effective carrot that Russia might've tried to dangle in front of Europe.

The Americans never made sense as being responsible for the destruction of a German pipeline either as it would obviously undermine literally everything the US is trying to achieve in the region. the only way the US might have been involved would be in cooperation with Germany and other European stakeholders to avoid blow-back.

That private parties would have destroyed it as an act of economic terrorism in support of Ukraine is probably the only explanation that makes any kind of motivational sense.