Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

I guess it will depend on how effective Ukraine has been at destroying Russian artillery (they've been blowing up a huge amount for the past three months or so, mostly in the south and east), how depleted Russian reserves are (reportedly, they've been reinforcing the front line and trying to yield as little as possible, have very few reserves left in many areas, and have a lot of troops sent to try and advance in northern Lugansk), and if the Ukrainians have found a way to effectively deal with minefields (this is the one I doubt the most).

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

Perhaps if the failure rate of Russia's mines is anywhere near as high as their other munitions Ukraine's sappers will have a bit more room for error

[N35t0r]

I guess it will depend on how effective Ukraine has been at destroying Russian artillery (they've been blowing up a huge amount for the past three months or so, mostly in the south and east), how depleted Russian reserves are (reportedly, they've been reinforcing the front line and trying to yield as little as possible, have very few reserves left in many areas, and have a lot of troops sent to try and advance in northern Lugansk), and if the Ukrainians have found a way to effectively deal with minefields (this is the one I doubt the most).

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

[BeBMan]

Maybe this is the push south mentioned above

Or it is the Ukrainian counteroffensive which already failed, according to Putin yesterday (? or so)

[PLATO]

Looks like something big is starting on the southern front. Some reports I am seeing say that Ukraine is close to a breakthrough and is rotating 5 brigades for a big push. Staromlynivka may be the weakest point in Russian defensive lines and Ukrainian armor is said the be about 5 miles from the defensive line there. There is no second layer of defense on that part of the front. A breakthrough there would open up 50-60 miles of maneuver space and open the way to Melitopol or Mariupol.

Things may be getting interesting for the next 2-3 weeks.

[N35t0r]

Wagner should have sent his soldiers to poll the citizens, I'm sure Putin would have recognized it just like the Crimea poll.

[BeBMan]

I'm still wondering why the good people of Rostov were not given a chance to vote if they wanted to stay with Wagner or Putin

[Berzerker]

natl guard still exists and state control was at issue

[Berzerker]

I grovel with the best of them

[BlackCat]

state governors in charge of tax funded militias

rings a bell

Yep, a very serious warning bell - it made some kind of sense a couple of centuries ago when communication and movement of troops was a problem. Today neither of those are a problem and the 2 amendment is obsolete.

[Berzerker]

state governors in charge of tax funded militias

rings a bell

[BlackCat]

With all of us being Civ veterans, I bet we would be officer material!

Yeah, probably, but most of us might end up with windows accidents or arrests since we have difficulties with inventing fantasies about destroying the UK air force trice, destroying 1.000 HIMARS units etc.

On that point I think that Serb, Berzerker, MWHC and a couple of others are so experienced in groveling that they might have a chance

[pchang]

Perhaps your interpretation of the 2nd amendment.

[Berzerker]

sounds like the 2nd amendment

[pchang]

And now, the Duma has passed a law allowing regional governors to set up their own private military contractors. Imagine each governor being allowed to maintain their own private army (of course, they would be funded with public money).

[PLATO]

Russia can now draft men up to 30 and call up reservists up to 55. In Russia, most of us poly members would be considered of prime military age.

With all of us being Civ veterans, I bet we would be officer material!