Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

I dont think Russia cares about Finland and Sweden

In the "we know Finland isn't going to attack us" way, or in the "we no longer crave our former imperial holdings" way?

[BeBMan]

Moscow’s military leadership has reportedly dismissed Major-General Ivan Popov, commander-in-chief of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army stationed in southern Ukraine, over his concerns for troops fighting without rest and criticism of Russian battlefield strategy.

Popov addressed soldiers in a voice message that was circulated on the Telegram messaging app on Wednesday saying he had been relieved of his post for criticising Russia’s military inefficiencies in Ukraine.

“I drew attention to the greatest tragedy of modern war – the lack of artillery reconnaissance and counter-strikes and the multiple deaths and injuries caused by enemy artillery,” Popov said, according to the message circulated on the Telegram channel of Duma legislator Andrei Gurulyov.

Popov, whose unit was fighting in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia, was harshly critical of his superiors.

“The soldiers of the Ukrainian armed forces could not break through our front, but from behind the commander-in-chief dealt us a treacherous blow by decapitating the army at the most critical and tense moment,” Popov said in his message.

Earlier on Wednesday, other Telegram channels had reported that Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov had called Popov an “alarmist” and replaced him.

There was no immediate comment from Russia’s defence ministry regarding Popov’s fate, the Reuters news agency reported.

Washington DC-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this week Popov’s removal was reportedly linked to his complaints over Moscow’s failure to rotate and rest Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine.

According to the ISW, Popov had told Chief of Staff Gerasimov that his troops had been in battle for extended periods of time and had suffered significant casualties and were in need of rotation away from the front.

“Gerasimov reportedly accused Popov of alarmism and blackmailing the Russian military command,” the ISW said, citing Russian online sources.

Popov was reportedly removed from his position and sent to “forward positions” in Ukraine after threatening to complain to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“These reports, if true, may support ISW’s previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle,” the think tank said.

Popov’s dismissal and criticism of the Russian military leadership echo the anger expressed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of Russia’s Wagner mercenary forces, who had for months berated top commanders in Moscow for poor military planning before launching a short-lived uprising by his mercenaries in June to remove senior Russian defence official.

Prigozhin called off his 24-hour mutiny as Wagner units closed in on Moscow and he secured a deal to leave Russia with his fighters for bases to be established in neighbouring Belarus.

Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday Wagner forces had handed over a large amount of heavy weaponry provided to them for operations in Ukraine. The return of weaponry appeared to be part of the agreement between Moscow and Prigozhin following the mutiny.

Wagner has returned T-90 and T-80 tanks, multiple rocket launchers, numerous artillery systems, as well as 2,500 tonnes of ammunition of various types and 20,000 firearms, the ministry said.

The whereabouts of Prigozhin remain unknown, and it is unclear whether his fighters will take up the offer of exile in Belarus, where camps ready for their arrival remained empty last week.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/russia-general-in-ukraine-removed-over-strategy-criticism-report

[Geronimo]

I dont think Russia cares about Finland and Sweden

Why?

[Geronimo]

Their choice was to end the war in the Donbas, that choice was ignored. Now Ukraine will lose more of its territory.

Ukraine did end the war in donbas. Then, civilians living in the donbas were attacked over and over by the Separatists. It only takes one party to keep a war going berz. The separatists never stopped trying to conquer more territory.

[Berzerker]

At least Putin's plan for a larger NATO worked like a charm.

I dont think Russia cares about Finland and Sweden

[Berzerker]

I guess their other choice was to quit being a country? And I remember everyone, myself included, who didn't think they would last more than a couple of moths (I did believe that there would be a fierce resistance though.

We have had two recent examples.Ukraine fought, and have successful resisted (although I think it is clear that the Ukraine has suffered set backs and failures) a dominant foe. The democratic government in Afghanistan surrendered for the most part.There was no real resistance.

JM

Their choice was to end the war in the Donbas, that choice was ignored. Now Ukraine will lose more of its territory.

[Geronimo]

I think Putin's missile attacks on civillian targets in Lviv in Westernmost Ukraine furthest from the front may help remind the Westernmost European countries how illusory that security from Russia is.

[pchang]

It is easier to be “peaceful” when you are not on the front lines.

[PLATO]

He shored up those flagging NATO defence budgets while he was at it.

Something that desperately needed doing. Poland seems to really have taken things to heart. Their defense budget should be close to 5% of GNP very soon. They may very well end up with the largest and most capable military in Europe at the pace they are on.

NATO, while appearing very united at the moment, may face some serious "East-West" disagreements in the future as the Eastern members have a somewhat different world view than the Western members.

[Geronimo]

At least Putin's plan for a larger NATO worked like a charm.

He shored up those flagging NATO defence budgets while he was at it.

[BeBMan]

Uh oh, Matthew Miller is not long for his job speaking on behalf of the State Dept.

"We believe the war has been a strategic failure for Ukraine"

At least Putin's plan for a larger NATO worked like a charm.

[Jon Miller]

I guess their other choice was to quit being a country? And I remember everyone, myself included, who didn't think they would last more than a couple of moths (I did believe that there would be a fierce resistance though.

We have had two recent examples.Ukraine fought, and have successful resisted (although I think it is clear that the Ukraine has suffered set backs and failures) a dominant foe. The democratic government in Afghanistan surrendered for the most part.There was no real resistance.

JM

[Berzerker]

Uh oh, Matthew Miller is not long for his job speaking on behalf of the State Dept.

"We believe the war has been a strategic failure for Ukraine"

When a reporter asked for clarification because he was supposed to say it was a failure for Russia, Miller apologized and corrected himself:

"A strategic failure for Ukraine"

He got back on track with a 3rd chance

https://youtu.be/otyfVwhBcU4

18:30 in, kinda funny... and sad

[Uncle Sparky]

"smorgasbord" = buffet (or assortment) table. Swedish
A table with a variety of foods you self serve.

[Geronimo]

That's the danish term, the correct would be smörgås.

Is there a Scandinavian word for buffet ( no clue which language, sorry) that's something like "smörgåsbrod"?