Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

Seeing some reports of a small beachhead on the east bank of the Dnipro north of Kherson.

[Berzerker]

and subs will be next

[Geronimo]

no doubt they are beginning by withdrawing the most badly damaged and least salvageable vehicles from storage and the 60% that remain include the best ones!

[BeBMan]

Google Earth shows nearly half of tanks and armored vehicles have been taken out of storage at major open-air depot in Buryatia

By studying the most recent Google Earth photos from Vagzhanovo, a major open-air military storage depot in Russia’s Buryatia, The Moscow Times has concluded that more than 40 percent of the tanks and other equipment stored at the depot before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been taken out of storage.

The publication reports that around 3,840 pieces of armored equipment appeared on Google Earth photos taken five months before the invasion. By May 2023, this number had shrunk to 2,270. This means that 1,570 tanks and armored vehicles have been taken out of storage over the past 1.5 years. Most of them (32 percent of the original number) left the depot after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin declared mobilization in September 2022.

The Russian Defense Ministry’s equipment conservation guidelines describe four categories of storage conditions, ranging from heated and ventilated depots for the most valuable equipment to open-air depots like Vagzhanovo. According to the military expert Pavel Luzin, who spoke to The Moscow Times, the latter are used for storing what “no one would miss.”

Judging by several photos posted by former Vagzhanovo staff on the social media, “no one would miss” the Soviet T-62 tanks, produced in the USSR in 1962–1975. When taken out of storage, some of them are refurbished with new armor, engines, optical and electronic systems, and thermal cameras. Others are disassembled into spare parts.

According to Luzin, refurbished T-62s are sometimes used as artillery. Another expert, who spoke to The Moscow Times anonymously, points out that old Soviet tanks are also used as armored vehicles to support the infantry.

In its first year of full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia lost about half of its modern tanks, as reported by the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The analysts at Oryx estimated that Russia had lost over 2,200 tanks in the same period.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/08/08/google-earth-shows-nearly-half-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-have-been-taken-out-of-storage-at-major-open-air-depot-in-buryatia

[Berzerker]

cnn/srss or something, Glenn Greenwald did a segment about it on rumble

[Berzerker]

surface navies are obsolete

[BeBMan]

Russia may now have changed to use tankers to intercept those naval drones.

Ukraine claims responsibility for attack on Russian tanker near Crimea


Ukraine has taken responsibility for the drone strike on a Russian tanker in the Kerch Strait, according to a security service source.

“Overnight the [Ukrainian Security Service] SBU blew up the ‘SIG’, a large oil tanker of the Russian Federation that was transporting fuel for Russian troops,” the source told Agence France-Presse.
(...)

(Guardian live coverage)

Would be funny if Ukraine established a naval blockade in the Black Sea without much of a surface navy

[Jon Miller]

Can you provide a source? The recent polls I have seen are very supportive of Ukraine.

JM

[Berzerker]

The Russian advance on Kiev was designed to get Zelensky to deal and the retreat was part of the draw down process. In Kherson the Russian general withdrew so his forces wouldn't be trapped if eastern escape routes were cut off, like when the dam up river failed. I dont know what happened in Kharkiv, maybe the Russians forgot to bring shovels.

Here's some polling on Americans

approve or disapprove of Biden's handling of Russia

43 approve - 81 Dem, 75 liberal, 51 moderate, 38 independent, 14 conservative, 11 Rep
56 disapprove - 18 Dem, 24 liberal, 48 moderate, 61 independent, 85 conservative, 87 Rep

55 to 45 want to end funding for the war

Who are these people who keep supporting wars for 1-2 years and then changing their minds?

[BlackCat]

which sides are the force and object

I think Russia's both

Yeah, the poor Ukainians are certainly in dire trouble - I mean, who cares about that they routed the russians in the Kyiv area, later in the Kharkiv and the Kherson areas, that was all just russian magic in their defense strategy - now the russian armor is dug in and easy targets decimated on a daily basis

[Berzerker]

So reports everywhere of intense fighting but the front is fairly stagnant. It is all coming down to the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Limited aircraft from both sides(aside from drones of course). This is truly a 1918 fight with 2023 weapons. This is beginning to resemble the Battle of The Somme....

which sides are the force and object

I think Russia's both

[BlackCat]

Interesting chitchat about wagner

[BeBMan]

Probably remote-controlled via Hunter Biden's laptop

[pchang]

He certainly drones on and on.

[Dauphin]

Was Trump the drone?