Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[pchang]

Don’t forget the ham.

[Bereta_Eder]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

Two bullets and a karlsberg?

[Geronimo]

I read it was to avoid encirclement but do you have evidence of this interruption? The supplies they're getting now were voted on before November and I dont think the people in charge are letting that happen, not while the meat grinder is profitable. Lets see, war ends, the Donbas votes on its future and if the west doesn't rearm fine people to resume the war peace might have a chance.

Dude if peace had a chance there would never have been hundreds of thousands of Russians and heavy equipment pouring across the border in that first February. You think the West is addicted to arms expenditures??? Holy crap look at addiction Russia is building. If you really believe all this bull**** you've been smoking about the West, with its pissant 4% GDP or lower defense budgets starting wars primarily to make business for defence contractors then how in the hell do you possibly envision an economy like Russia's not being even more likely to choose war for defense contracts when not only have they always constituted a much larger fraction of the Russian economy but they are now entirely responsible for *all* of its economic growth and momentum. You're never going to end the war by weakening Ukraine Berz. At best you'll see a "Minsk 3" followed by another carefully timed follow-up to a future Ukrainian nazi provocations after Russia will have spent the intervening 2 to 4 years spending like drunken sailors on setting up special military operation 2. Do you think it will be cheaper for US taxpayers in that scenario?

[Berzerker]

thats the point, it wasn't a blitzkrieg other than the army that advanced on Kiev from the north and was pulled as part of the deal they were making. The 'plan' was to force compliance with Minsk or some variant based on negotiations.

[Berzerker]

https://p.dw.com/p/4cVje

Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka is a big deal and likely a direct consequence to the non deliveries of military aid to Ukraine that have been missed since early November at least. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are going to settle this thing at sea or in the skies. If major new aid is not received soon, there will probably be a forced peace treaty followed by a total conquest of Ukraine within 5 years when the treaty is unceremoniously flushed on a some truly absurd pretense (timing dependent on elections).

I read it was to avoid encirclement but do you have evidence of this interruption? The supplies they're getting now were voted on before November and I dont think the people in charge are letting that happen, not while the meat grinder is profitable. Lets see, war ends, the Donbas votes on its future and if the west doesn't rearm fine people to resume the war peace might have a chance.

[The Mad Monk]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

German Blitz Victories were all in the early years of the war. German war production peaked in 1944, when the Blitz days were long gone.

But yeah, let's see how it goes, without support Ukraine could certainly be in trouble at some point. For the next three days however I don't see any immediate danger

[Geronimo]

Within only two years Russia took a rather small town a couple km away from the territory they had under control before, from 2014. Blitzkrieg all over the map.

I'd love to be wrong about this but Russia has the overwhelming logistical momentum here relative to Ukraine. Russia's ammo output dwarfs that of Ukraine and Russia decisively exceeds ukrainian output on everything else. Without a lot of help from its friends blitzkrieg all over the map is certainly possible - in the wrong direction for Ukraine. Russia's economy is nominally growing at quite an enviable pace right now. This is all in the form of massive military output. This economic pattern tends to be addictive in the national economic dependence sense. Putin will be far more tempted to ramp it up and direct it towards redeeming his vast revanchist project than to do anything else.

As sad and disappointing to Putin as the Russian military's performance has been in Ukraine in this war he will no doubt recognize that the Red Armies performance vs the third Reich in the first two years after Barbarossa was scarcely better and he will relish recalling how that conflict unfolded after that.

[BeBMan]

Within only two years Russia took a rather small town a couple km away from the territory they had under control before, from 2014. Blitzkrieg all over the map.

[Geronimo]

https://p.dw.com/p/4cVje

Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka is a big deal and likely a direct consequence to the non deliveries of military aid to Ukraine that have been missed since early November at least. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are going to settle this thing at sea or in the skies. If major new aid is not received soon, there will probably be a forced peace treaty followed by a total conquest of Ukraine within 5 years when the treaty is unceremoniously flushed on a some truly absurd pretense (timing dependent on elections).

[Uncle Sparky]

Stealth tech... maybe they just seem to have disappeared!... standard mission parameters, again.

[BeBMan]

This is even weirder

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-helicopters-aircraft-missing-fsb-investigation-rosaviatsiya-1869107

[BeBMan]

It didn't sink, just launched a special underwater amphibious landing operation, so it's all within standard mission parameters for this tpye of ship.

[BlackCat]

It looks like the russian navy yet again has managed to destroy a number of Ukrainian sea drones only loosing a single ship in the process.

[Geronimo]

Economist editor @zannymb tells @jonstewart that arming Ukraine "is the cheapest possible way for the US to enhance its security. The fighting is being done by the Ukrainians, they're the people who are being killed. The US and Europe are supplying them weapons."

do you feel secure?

in perfect honesty I feel far more secure when Ukraine is getting those weapons than I do when that's blocked. Of course I feel least secure of all whenever Trump opens his piehole about NATO, but that's closely related.