Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Serb]

After reading that stuff, I think the guy has demoted himself to armchair general, and I guess that the same goes for similar analysis. It's quite horrible that he back in 22 suggests that the Ukrainians should collect their tanks, armoured transports etc. and make a counterattack somewhere. Then there are the comments of russias access to lots of raw materials, which is quite true and is pretty good if you have to build wast amounts of T-34 but is quite uninteresting if you have to build a modern tank. About that, yes, the russians are building new modern tanks, some 40-60 a year - that is what Ukraine destroys on a sloppy week.

Here is a more recent and reliable evaluation of the situation

You've mader my day, idiot!!!

If that was true, tell me, why Ukraine has closed its borders for a males of consript age, has lovered its conscript age to 25 years (from 27), demaning to return of male refugees from Europe, hunting their males on the streets like an animals, beating them to half-death to just throw them to the frontline as a cannon fodder, forcibly mobilizing its population 24/7/365 right from the start of the conflict AND - begging for military hardware all around the World like a crazy beggar, while Russia don't do ANYTHING OF THAT?

WHY?

YOU PATHETIC IDIOT!!!

[Serb]

About the UK allowing its weapons to be used inside Russia.

https://youtu.be/TIfWR7Q30bs?si=Ao-moM6E0ImeEtBK

France and Germany did the same a month ago.

https://youtu.be/chCRsTj_XEs?si=Dvv9SAzLam1sOb49

So, you are waiting for Russia to give an order to herself to use weapons inside, UK, France, Germany and USA?

You will get it.

And what you will do, when we will cluster munitions over one of Florida's or California's beaches?

Think about that, IDIOT!!!

Who told you that two can't play this game?!!!

[Serb]

We will not bury you, idiots, we just let you to bury you themselves. Which is what we are doing now, by just seating and watching how you are killing yourselves after the choosing the path of war, instead a path of a fair partnership.

[Serb]

A fapper wet dreamer!
Just like the old self-propelled Joe and his team of wet dreamers!

[Serb]

[QUOTE=Dinner;n9472459]About a month ago Russia stopped reporting its weekly production of refined oil products. Official states even three months ago showed a 45% drop in output and those numbers were probably doctored by the Kremlin to make the situation look better than it actually is.

https://youtu.be/Jt6FRyRJ8Zg?si=NgBqzaxrOvmioipg

The money crunch is coming as all the cash Putin saved up to cushion the Russian economy is almost gone

Almost gone?

You have stollen 300 billions of our money in 2022, but we have made 320 billions in 2023.

This goes from CNN: The Kremlin has never been richer

Russia’s federal revenues ballooned to a record $320 billion in 2023 and are set to rise further still.


Out of money, my ass!!!
And as most of the Western idiots still don't understand is that oil and gas revenues to the Russian budget has reached its minimum for the last 16 years and equals to 28% in 2023.
Less than 1/3!!!



Keep fapping in your wet dreams, moron!
There is nothing changes with the gas price or diesel here or inflation, idiot!
Russia is still a top producers in terms of agriculture, is among the top producers oil and gas and many many other things.
Speaking of agricalture, where do you think USA is buying a lion's share of fertilizers to keep its own agricalture working?
Russia.
Where do you get the most of uranium for your nuclear plants?
The most of Titanium for your air-space industry?
The answer is the same - Russia!
You rob your European lackey clowns with the sanctions, while at the same time increasing your buying from Russia.
And now turn your brain on for a second and ask yourself, what will happen with your agriculture, your aircraft and space industry and your energy sector without the Russian resources?

Add two to two, imbeciles!

We can cripple you entierly any time we like! And I wonder we still didn't do that, because your European lackey are even more dependent on our imports.

[Serb]

The Russia alone has more warheads than your entire NATO and the carriers of those warheads is one generation ahead of yours.

So, stop playing with a nuclear fire, for your own good, idiots!

[Serb]

The Biden campaign did try to make Ukraine stop. Then it got bad press and NATO members told the Biden admin it was completely wrong, that Ukraine has to be allowed to win, and then countries like France and UK gave public permission to use their weapons on targets inside Russia. A week or so later the Biden admin flip flopped again and gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons on targets inside Russia.

Fair is fair as Russia attacks inside Ukraine so it should have to face Ukraine doing the same back to Russia. All of this happened a month or so ago back when Russia launched its now failed offensive towards Kharkiv.

You do realize that no Western missile can be fired without a flight plan, entered by WESTERN specialists, based of WESTERN sattelite and Western drone data?

That such attacks make you a 300% side of the conflict, despite all your whining that you don't fight with Russia?

The single fact that you are sending weapons in a war zone is a casus belli in accordance with the international law.

So, when our patience will be finally over, don't be so surprised your cities start to fire and ALL OF YOU WILL DIE!!!

[Serb]

Ukraine's best bet is that Russia runs out of cash and inflation makes living standards collapse inside Russia. This why Ukraine attacks oil facilities to try to bring that about

That was your initial blitzkrieg plan and it 's failed.

Now you suck your own balls hard, because your snactions cripples your financial babble economies with ease, while our real economy of industry and resources is growing at a rate you Western suckers can only dream of.

[BlackCat]

I've been seeing more and more recent analysis along the lines of the link below which contradict the broad predictive narratives and analysis of Anders that time is on Ukraine's side or that Russian victory is not in the cards.

After reading that stuff, I think the guy has demoted himself to armchair general, and I guess that the same goes for similar analysis. It's quite horrible that he back in 22 suggests that the Ukrainians should collect their tanks, armoured transports etc. and make a counterattack somewhere. Then there are the comments of russias access to lots of raw materials, which is quite true and is pretty good if you have to build wast amounts of T-34 but is quite uninteresting if you have to build a modern tank. About that, yes, the russians are building new modern tanks, some 40-60 a year - that is what Ukraine destroys on a sloppy week.

Here is a more recent and reliable evaluation of the situation

[Geronimo]

Interesting

As much as I respect Anders Puck Nielsen's expertise on the Ukraine war he has now made so many predictions and analysis part of his public reputation and literally staked his career on their veracity and success. If it turns out that his reasonable, informed, well thought out predictions on this vast, extremely opaque and grotesquely complicated start to look inaccurate I suspect he will increasingly succumb to temptation to filter his future analysis, both consciously and unconsciously, to protect and defend that verbal investment along with his reputation.

I've been seeing more and more recent analysis along the lines of the link below which contradict the broad predictive narratives and analysis of Anders that time is on Ukraine's side or that Russian victory is not in the cards.

[Dinner]

About the UK allowing its weapons to be used inside Russia.

https://youtu.be/TIfWR7Q30bs?si=Ao-moM6E0ImeEtBK

France and Germany did the same a month ago.

https://youtu.be/chCRsTj_XEs?si=Dvv9SAzLam1sOb49

[Dinner]

About a month ago Russia stopped reporting its weekly production of refined oil products. Official states even three months ago showed a 45% drop in output and those numbers were probably doctored by the Kremlin to make the situation look better than it actually is.

https://youtu.be/Jt6FRyRJ8Zg?si=NgBqzaxrOvmioipg

Now, what happens when there are shortages of gasoline and diesel? Or the prices rise causing large amounts of inflation? Will dirt poor farmers have enough diesel to harvest their crops? Will there be diesel for trucks to transport those crops to factories and markets? What about fuel costs for everyday Russians? Yes, Putin subsidized gas and diesel prices for people in Russia but that costs a lot of money and money reserves are drying up. It is extremely expensive to import fuel at market rate only to sell it at a subsidized rate. The money crunch is coming as all the cash Putin saved up to cushion the Russian economy is almost gone, he can't borrow on international financial markets due to sanctions, so he has two choices. 1) Raise taxes (which he has already done probably as much as he can without crushing regular people) or 2) Money printer goes burr which will result in mass inflation. Not good options.

[Dinner]

Looking stuff up back in May 30th the Biden admin give limited permission to strike assets inside Russia near Kharkiv. France and UK didn't limit use of their weapons nearly so much.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731%23:~:text%3DThe%2520Biden%2520administrat ion%2520has%2520quietly,defend%2520its%2520second% 252Dlargest%2520city.&ved=2ahUKEwiZ3fLdkY6HAxWawK0 AHfKAARQQFnoECBAQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0T6qfW7dUheQ36kYBYbK Ha

In the month since there are claims the US expanded the list of ok targets to include a wider area as well as a wider target list Logistics hubs, oil and gas facilities, military industrial plants, etc... BTW the strikes on oil refineries have been particularly successful as Russia is now a net importer of refined oil products.

[Dinner]

last I heard the Biden administration was trying to twist Ukraine's arm to make those attacks stop with the moronic idea that the attacks would promote inflation in the US.

The Biden campaign did try to make Ukraine stop. Then it got bad press and NATO members told the Biden admin it was completely wrong, that Ukraine has to be allowed to win, and then countries like France and UK gave public permission to use their weapons on targets inside Russia. A week or so later the Biden admin flip flopped again and gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons on targets inside Russia.

Fair is fair as Russia attacks inside Ukraine so it should have to face Ukraine doing the same back to Russia. All of this happened a month or so ago back when Russia launched its now failed offensive towards Kharkiv.

[Geronimo]

Ukraine's best bet is that Russia runs out of cash and inflation makes love standards collapse inside Russia. This why Ukraine attacks oil facilities to try to bring that about

last I heard the Biden administration was trying to twist Ukraine's arm to make those attacks stop with the moronic idea that the attacks would promote inflation in the US.