Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

German Blitz Victories were all in the early years of the war. German war production peaked in 1944, when the Blitz days were long gone.

But yeah, let's see how it goes, without support Ukraine could certainly be in trouble at some point. For the next three days however I don't see any immediate danger

[Geronimo]

Within only two years Russia took a rather small town a couple km away from the territory they had under control before, from 2014. Blitzkrieg all over the map.

I'd love to be wrong about this but Russia has the overwhelming logistical momentum here relative to Ukraine. Russia's ammo output dwarfs that of Ukraine and Russia decisively exceeds ukrainian output on everything else. Without a lot of help from its friends blitzkrieg all over the map is certainly possible - in the wrong direction for Ukraine. Russia's economy is nominally growing at quite an enviable pace right now. This is all in the form of massive military output. This economic pattern tends to be addictive in the national economic dependence sense. Putin will be far more tempted to ramp it up and direct it towards redeeming his vast revanchist project than to do anything else.

As sad and disappointing to Putin as the Russian military's performance has been in Ukraine in this war he will no doubt recognize that the Red Armies performance vs the third Reich in the first two years after Barbarossa was scarcely better and he will relish recalling how that conflict unfolded after that.

[BeBMan]

Within only two years Russia took a rather small town a couple km away from the territory they had under control before, from 2014. Blitzkrieg all over the map.

[Geronimo]

https://p.dw.com/p/4cVje

Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka is a big deal and likely a direct consequence to the non deliveries of military aid to Ukraine that have been missed since early November at least. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are going to settle this thing at sea or in the skies. If major new aid is not received soon, there will probably be a forced peace treaty followed by a total conquest of Ukraine within 5 years when the treaty is unceremoniously flushed on a some truly absurd pretense (timing dependent on elections).

[Uncle Sparky]

Stealth tech... maybe they just seem to have disappeared!... standard mission parameters, again.

[BeBMan]

This is even weirder

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-helicopters-aircraft-missing-fsb-investigation-rosaviatsiya-1869107

[BeBMan]

It didn't sink, just launched a special underwater amphibious landing operation, so it's all within standard mission parameters for this tpye of ship.

[BlackCat]

It looks like the russian navy yet again has managed to destroy a number of Ukrainian sea drones only loosing a single ship in the process.

[Geronimo]

Economist editor @zannymb tells @jonstewart that arming Ukraine "is the cheapest possible way for the US to enhance its security. The fighting is being done by the Ukrainians, they're the people who are being killed. The US and Europe are supplying them weapons."

do you feel secure?

in perfect honesty I feel far more secure when Ukraine is getting those weapons than I do when that's blocked. Of course I feel least secure of all whenever Trump opens his piehole about NATO, but that's closely related.

[Berzerker]

Economist editor @zannymb tells @jonstewart that arming Ukraine "is the cheapest possible way for the US to enhance its security. The fighting is being done by the Ukrainians, they're the people who are being killed. The US and Europe are supplying them weapons."

do you feel secure?

[BeBMan]

Indeed, and if he sticks around a little longer we all may celebrate the 2nd anniversary of this glorious 3 day war together next week

[-Jrabbit]

With today's report that Russia used their new hypersonic missile in a recent attack on Kiev, I expect we will have a Serb sighting shortly.

[Dauphin]

Nato is weaker than we think? And Russia is a helluva lot stronger. I've heard the Russian economy is doing well because the sanctions forced re-investment in Russia instead of oligarchs sending it abroad. China will back Russia in a war against Nato.

Missed this earlier. Russia's economy is doing well - it's GDP is one of the fasted growing, and growing faster than the West. That growth is caused (to an unspecified but significant degree) by increased spending by the Russian government on its military. Economic growth is great, but if the increase is then blown up or killed, it doesn't really help the long term economy even though you record a nice bump in GDP.

[BeBMan]

This is quite funny too

There's a huge gap between what Putin wants, and what those more on the nutty side in the US want, even when they seem to like Putin.

For those all that nonsense about the US, deep state, progressives, cancel culture, Obama or whatever maybe hugely important to hear as it strengthens their beliefs when Putin seemingly agrees/confirms them.

But it is all irrelevant to Putin unless he can exploit the divisions behind this to influence US public opinion in his favor.

Otoh Putin himself gains when using someone like Tucker as useful idiot to strengthen his own position in Russia. The long (pseudo-)historic part sells Putin's warped view on history to justify his aggression in Ukraine. Hardly anyone in the MAGA corner cares about that, but having Tucker around gives him another chance to sell his narrative, and in Russia Putin can present Tucker as some kind of the "real" America, because everyone in the US who is against Putin must be CNNCIAdeepstateObamasomething.

But it's funny indeed as Putin seems to suffer from that same historic illness which led various dictators previously to bore their audience with endless monologues