Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

if we have to rely on Ukraine and the CIA for information I have no reason to believe that, logic is a much better path to the truth. Why doesn't Moscow just level Kiev when Zelensky is meeting with his top brass (on day 1)? Do they lack the means? No... even conventional weapons are sufficient to destroy any and all cities. Did you know Russia was selling fuel to Ukraine and letting them export food? Hell, we're still buying uranium from Russia. What does that tell you? Putin tried to pressure Zelensky into honoring Minsk and they had a deal in Mar '22, Biden sent Boris to declare (proxy) war instead.

Ukraine has always had far more ABM than the average bear and ABM and AA-systems in general feature enormously in that multi billion in military aid to Ukraine that you're always bemoaning. Even worse from Moscow's POV, the more they deploy their treasured missile arsenal against Kiev and fail to level it, the weaker it looks as a deterrent and the more hardware Kiev can analyze with their allies. So, WTH would you figure Moscow can level Kiev from afar?

Countries buying and selling to Russia doesn't really tell us anything, except that both sides presumably think they are coming out ahead relative to the other in the transactions.

[Berzerker]

Russia shows restraint and the west says its weak.

[PLATO]

If restraint is using up over 80% of your missile stocks. Or is restraint using them on civilian targets? Hard to tell in the Putinverse

[BeBMan]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66574219

[Geronimo]

I'm starting to think most of these consumer level closings in Russia are worthless to Ukraine and it's allies except as virtue signaling exercises. This will not impact the Russian economy and the related transfer of capital at liquidation will probably even help the Russian economy and reduce capital outflow.

[BeBMan]

Putin video address to BRICS business forum delivered in a different voice

7:04 pm, August 22, 2023
Source: Meduza

Vladimir Putin gave a video address to participants in the BRICS business forum, which is taking place on August 22 in Johannesburg, South Africa, ahead of the main BRICS summit for member countries.
Journalists in the Kremlin pool report that the Russian president’s address was dubbed into Russian in a voice not belonging to Putin himself. Why this happened is unclear.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/08/22...ifferent-voice (incl. vids of something in Russian)

Putin utilizes his DoppelVoice????

[BeBMan]

Ukraine counteroffensive practically dead:

https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/22/robotyne-has-been-liberated-according-to-ukrainian-armys-47th-brigade

IIRC the village is a key location. But Berz may know more about the big push south.

[PLATO]

Bullcrap Berz strikes again. Zelensky clearly said at the beginning of the offensive that they would try to limit casualties. Credible reporting estimates show Ukraine with a positive 3:1 casualty ratio. Russia has zero reserves left in the south (although it was reported that an additional 5000 troops arrived in Mariupol in the last few days). Finally the Russians in Belarus are not moving south because Kyiv is now extremely well defended and the Russian Army in Belarus has yet to develop the combat power to be successful. All these facts are readily available.

[Berzerker]

Its funny seeing the image of Plato next to insults I'd expect from Trump. So, aside from the obvious fact a leader wont say he's sending people into a meat grinder he says they will limit casualties. But the NYT said US officials are concerned by this averseness to casualties. Kinda matters when our govt is complaining about it.

[PLATO]

Apologies for the insults Berz. Intended just in the spirit of debate, but now that I know they actually offend you I will stop. One request though, will you at least attempt to see reason?

[N35t0r]

Ukraine counteroffensive practically dead:

https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/22/robotyne-has-been-liberated-according-to-ukrainian-armys-47th-brigade

IIRC the village is a key location. But Berz may know more about the big push south.

You don't understand, actually Putin is just trying to get Kiev to sign for peace, that's why they're just retreating slowly.

At any time they could get fed up with the west forcing Ukraine to fight and just level Kiev and finish this charade. They just choose not to do that now because reasons.

But at any time they wanted, Ukraine is finished!

[Berzerker]

he got them to sign deals twice and the US said nyet

[N35t0r]

There's just no evidence at all of any deals, but believe me, they existed!

[Geronimo]

Furthermore let's say for sale of argument that Zelensky and Putin actually *had* signed a deal for peace which Putin was withdrawing forces North of Kiev to respect. what possible leverage could the U.S. or anyone else leverage to make Zelensky sabotage that deal and reignite war with Russia? Halt military aid? Kinda moot when peace has been won. Use Azov Nazis to kill Zelensky and his family? Don't you think at this point zelensky has proven he values his country above himself? Not to mention the fact that the Russians have at least as effective a record at assassination as Azov. He'd have to understand have been missing Putin off personally. Berz, there's no way in HELL Zelensky would sabotage a peace deal being implemented by Russia and Ukraine, especially in response to foreign pressure.

[Berzerker]

He did that and retreated... and yes, he has reasons for holding back.

[BeBMan]

Also the enemy was shooting back.

[Berzerker]

shooting first... started 8 years ago

[N35t0r]

Right, when the Russian army invaded Crimea.

[BeBMan]

Ukraine trying to minimize losses? Unbelievable thing that is, never heard in war time. It's almost like they care about lives. Probably think burning through own manpower like Russia does only makes you second best

[BeBMan]

The Surovikin guy is gone, it seems:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/russia-removes-sergei-surovikin-as-head-of-aerospace-forces

No info about his actual fate, not seen since June. But maybe they hide him somewhere for the big push south.

[Dauphin]

Wagner boss gone? Fire and crash on plane?

[PLATO]

Wagner boss gone? Fire and crash on plane?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733

May that murderer roast.

He must have done a good job of staying away from open windows.

I have seen some reports of two vapor trails in the air before the crash and the sound of a loud bang.

[dannubis]

He shouldn't have booked that window seat though...

[BeBMan]

Wagner boss gone? Fire and crash on plane?

Maybe snakes on a plane hehe.

Certainly the plane was making a big push south, but there seems to be still speculations if he was really on board or not.

[Geronimo]

Maybe snakes on a plane hehe.

Certainly the plane was making a big push south, but there seems to be still speculations if he was really on board or not.

it will impress me immensely if he was able to convince Putin he was on the plane sufficient to get Putin to pull the trigger on this assassination attempt. If Yevgeny was not aboard and it comes out that he's alive Putin's paranoia will go through the roof. If in fact he *is* alive though, he'd be smart to lay low and play dead have had the foresight to stage some sort of forensic evidence of his death on the plane. In which case it could be ages before anybody realizes he's not dead.

[PLATO]

Or maybe he makes a deal with Belarus and leads another coup. It would seriously tick me off if someone fired a missile (yeah sure...no proof of the missile) at a plane I was supposedly on just because I was supposedly on it.

[Berzerker]

Both Wagner founders were on the plane?

https://youtu.be/sxKDeANGcao

[Uncle Sparky]

According to the flight manifest, yes.

[Thoth]

Excellent news.

Now all we need is confirmation that Surovikin has accidentally fallen out of a window after drinking polonium tea.

[BeBMan]

If Utkin is gone too denazification would make a huge leap forward:

Among those presumed dead alongside the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash near Moscow was Dmitry Utkin, who was often described as the founder or co-founder of the mercenary group although his exact role was disputed.

His own call sign was “Wagner”, after Hitler’s favourite composer. The investigative website Bellingcat wrote in 2020 that Utkin had “an obsessive fascination with the history of the Third Reich” while another recent report described him as “festooned with numerous Nazi tattoos, including a swastika, a Nazi eagle, and SS lightning bolts”. The Wagner group was apparently named after him.

However, according to a 2020 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American thinktank, “it cannot be verified whether Utkin initiated the establishment of Wagner group or was only a frontman for someone else”.

(...)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/who-was-dmitry-utkin-wagner-commander-plane-crash-yevgeny-prigozhin

[Thoth]

The good news just keeps coming. :b