Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Berzerker]

sounds like the 2nd amendment

[pchang]

Perhaps your interpretation of the 2nd amendment.

[BlackCat]

With all of us being Civ veterans, I bet we would be officer material!

Yeah, probably, but most of us might end up with windows accidents or arrests since we have difficulties with inventing fantasies about destroying the UK air force trice, destroying 1.000 HIMARS units etc.

On that point I think that Serb, Berzerker, MWHC and a couple of others are so experienced in groveling that they might have a chance

[Berzerker]

I grovel with the best of them

[Berzerker]

state governors in charge of tax funded militias

rings a bell

[BlackCat]

state governors in charge of tax funded militias

rings a bell

Yep, a very serious warning bell - it made some kind of sense a couple of centuries ago when communication and movement of troops was a problem. Today neither of those are a problem and the 2 amendment is obsolete.

[Berzerker]

natl guard still exists and state control was at issue

[BeBMan]

I'm still wondering why the good people of Rostov were not given a chance to vote if they wanted to stay with Wagner or Putin

[The Mad Monk]

Do you mean the original Crimeans, or do you mean the Crimeans the Russians replaced them with?

[Berzerker]

ask any Crimeans if they want to be ruled by Azov

[Proteus_MST]

Well, good thing that Ukraine isn't ruled by Azov, but by a democratically elected president

[PLATO]

Looks like something big is starting on the southern front. Some reports I am seeing say that Ukraine is close to a breakthrough and is rotating 5 brigades for a big push. Staromlynivka may be the weakest point in Russian defensive lines and Ukrainian armor is said the be about 5 miles from the defensive line there. There is no second layer of defense on that part of the front. A breakthrough there would open up 50-60 miles of maneuver space and open the way to Melitopol or Mariupol.

Things may be getting interesting for the next 2-3 weeks.

[BeBMan]

Maybe this is the push south mentioned above

Or it is the Ukrainian counteroffensive which already failed, according to Putin yesterday (? or so)

[N35t0r]

I guess it will depend on how effective Ukraine has been at destroying Russian artillery (they've been blowing up a huge amount for the past three months or so, mostly in the south and east), how depleted Russian reserves are (reportedly, they've been reinforcing the front line and trying to yield as little as possible, have very few reserves left in many areas, and have a lot of troops sent to try and advance in northern Lugansk), and if the Ukrainians have found a way to effectively deal with minefields (this is the one I doubt the most).

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

[Geronimo]

I guess it will depend on how effective Ukraine has been at destroying Russian artillery (they've been blowing up a huge amount for the past three months or so, mostly in the south and east), how depleted Russian reserves are (reportedly, they've been reinforcing the front line and trying to yield as little as possible, have very few reserves left in many areas, and have a lot of troops sent to try and advance in northern Lugansk), and if the Ukrainians have found a way to effectively deal with minefields (this is the one I doubt the most).

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

Perhaps if the failure rate of Russia's mines is anywhere near as high as their other munitions Ukraine's sappers will have a bit more room for error

[pchang]

5% failure still means 19/20 explode.

[Dauphin]

I think '95% failure still means 1/20 explode, and there are millions'

[Bereta_Eder]

ukrainian drones attacked moscow

and there is no global themonuclear war


strange

[PLATO]

So reports everywhere of intense fighting but the front is fairly stagnant. It is all coming down to the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Limited aircraft from both sides(aside from drones of course). This is truly a 1918 fight with 2023 weapons. This is beginning to resemble the Battle of The Somme....

[Geronimo]

So reports everywhere of intense fighting but the front is fairly stagnant. It is all coming down to the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Limited aircraft from both sides(aside from drones of course). This is truly a 1918 fight with 2023 weapons. This is beginning to resemble the Battle of The Somme....

All of that favors Russia to win

[My Wife Hates CIV]

This thread is like when will Trump be taken down? How about never. Still..
fun to watch those with tds try. Hahaga

[BeBMan]

So reports everywhere of intense fighting but the front is fairly stagnant. It is all coming down to the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Limited aircraft from both sides(aside from drones of course). This is truly a 1918 fight with 2023 weapons. This is beginning to resemble the Battle of The Somme....

Spring 1918 the Kaiserreich was sooo optimistic, because they just defeated Russia in '17 and thought the released manpower would get the job done in the west.