Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

Not to mention a pretty effective precision bombing campaign on the few legitimate military formations in place prior to troops moving in.

Meh, the two wars can't really be compared. In Iraq there was a imminent air superiority, bad morale on one site and a vast difference in armor.
Ukraine is a bit different. None have air superiority and both parts are weary on using air force, morale is quite bigger on the Ukrainian site (they were attacked), but isn't as such lacking on the Russian site, and then they were pretty much on par with gun and armor quality.
The quality in leadership is where the big difference has been shown for the last year - russian soviet style versus nato intelligent troops is kind of baffling. Wonder what the Ukrainians can do when they outgrade russian armor.

[PLATO]

I have met russians (russian writers) that have stood agaiunst putin and now their life is in danger




that I respect serb for being a patriot?

b!tch please

I don't respect Serb for being a patriot to a megalomaniac...just merely stated that he is one. Sad that he is in this case. At some point you have to put "right" above "country". This is clearly a case where he should. I have called Serb a coward and he is. Not because I think he fears conflict with the West, but because he cannot bring himself to do what he must deep inside know is right...and that is oppose this senseless war and the evil dictator driving it.

[PLATO]

Meh, the two wars can't really be compared. In Iraq there was a imminent air superiority, bad morale on one site and a vast difference in armor.
Ukraine is a bit different. None have air superiority and both parts are weary on using air force, morale is quite bigger on the Ukrainian site (they were attacked), but isn't as such lacking on the Russian site, and then they were pretty much on par with gun and armor quality.
The quality in leadership is where the big difference has been shown for the last year - russian soviet style versus nato intelligent troops is kind of baffling. Wonder what the Ukrainians can do when they outgrade russian armor.

Totally agree. My comments were in support of the comment that U.S. forces suffered WAY less than average attrition for an invading force. It wasn't just because the defenders fell apart. It was due to uncontested aerial superiority relentlessly pummeling them for two weeks that caused them to fall apart. Obviously not the case for either side in Ukraine.

I think your comments about Leadership are also spot on. For the last nine years Ukraine has worked hard to develop an NCO corp and small unit initiative. We see if paying off in the effectiveness of their military even when they are fighting at an equipment disadvantage. It will be very interesting to see what happens when all this NATO supplied armor is brought to bear in Ukrainian hands.

[N35t0r]

There were reports that most of the western-trained NCOs have already been KIA.


Also, Bakhmut has been a couple of days from falling to Russian troops for what? Five months already?

Truly top-notch superior military.

[BeBMan]

I read something like that a while ago, also that there's sometimes a rift in Ukraine between those Western-trained folks and the old guard which is used to Soviet style warfare. I have no idea how serious this is the grand scheme of stuff.

OTOH Western backed training has been expanded quite a bit -- if that makes up for losses of those with training *and combat experience I dunno.

But when it comes to training woes and losses of experienced guys Moscow has plenty of headaches too, me thinks.

[Dinner]

There were reports that most of the western-trained NCOs have already been KIA.


Also, Bakhmut has been a couple of days from falling to Russian troops for what? Five months already?

Truly top-notch superior military.

Russia also claimed all the western equipment had been destroyed in Ukraine before any of it was even sent to Ukraine. They claimed to have destroyed hundreds of HIMARs even though the U.S. only sent twenty something. Oh, and the Ukrainian air force supposedly shot down ten times over.

I'm short, Russian propaganda tells lots of lies.

[N35t0r]

Yeah, from reputed sources, not whatever war propaganda Russia pumps out.

[Serb]

you should be thankful. russia would have been toast in 1942 ish if not for the US/West (US).

How it is so, if battle of Moscow nearly brought Werhmacht to its collapse at winter of 1941, without any significant Lend-Lease?

Your fancy Lend-Lease simply didn't exist back then at all!

[Serb]

the US didnt try. in fact... the US just got bored with the whole thing.

Yeah!

More like sucking its own balls and run with tail between their tails!
You are not fkn fighters, you are fkn clowns and self-PR clowns!

[Serb]

I might have originally expected that kind of ratio in Russia's favor. Russia had enormous advantages. However, like we've discussed before, now that we've seen Russia find it necessary to retreat from Kyiv, retreat from Kharkiv, retreat from Kherson, and take several months to seize Bhakmut as well as find much heavier Russian equipment losses than Ukraine on photograpic evidence sites like Oryx, it's hard to accept any numbers as plausible that give a ratio heavily in Russia's favor. How could Ukraine have pulled those successes off while bleeding heavier losses than the Russians?

Nobody is perfect!
But the ratio still remains.
Any tactical success they had - they pay for it with their blood.

[BlackCat]

An interesting talk about Putin and Russia

[JohnT]

Lies, damned lies, and Serbtistics:

Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”

• 400,000 jeeps & trucks
• 14,000 airplanes
• 8,000 tractors
• 13,000 tanks
• 1.5 million blankets
• 15 million pairs of army boots
• 107,000 tons of cotton
• 2.7 million tons of petrol products
• 4.5 million tons of food

https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/#:~:text=Totaling%20%2411.3%20billion%2C%20or%20%2 4180,common%20enemy%20%E2%80%94%20bloodthirsty%20H itlerism.%E2%80%9D

[Serb]

I think it is clear to any impartial observer that Russia was completely unprepared for the operation they began.

To some extend that is true.

Clearly they have experienced extremely heavy losses in personnel and equipment.

That is true, we thought we can pwn them being putnambered 4 to 1.
Didn't happen.

Since their population was not prepared for this possibility in advance, it is likely that they have resorted to outright lies to keep the populace from questioning Putin's strategy. Serb, being within the confines of the sphere of influence of State propaganda AND being a Patriot, easily consume and regurgitate these falsehoods with the certainty of truth.

A blah-bla-blah bullsh!t.
We have analyzed the reasons of our failed blitzkriege, mobilized slightley a bit, and now you have no chance.

I suspect that Serb, also being fairly intelligent, does have his questions about what is going on but would never raise them with us.

Sure.
I have questions to my government, but I will never discuss it with you, because you are the external enemy, the enemy of my country and my people!

[JohnT]

Your country is too drunk to be thought of as an effective enemy.

[Serb]

Maybe I'm more dumb

but I do know that serb wqants and is jealous of the west and is intimidated by it


I can write a who9le theseis on it

but he has chosen tofollow putin

there are far more braver souls than him

and I'm sad because I really liked him

Says the one who doesn't have balls to even call his real name here here, not to mention to show his real face!

You are a clown Paik!

[Serb]

Meh, the two wars can't really be compared. In Iraq there was a imminent air superiority, bad morale on one site and a vast difference in armor.
Ukraine is a bit different. None have air superiority and both parts are weary on using air force, morale is quite bigger on the Ukrainian site (they were attacked), but isn't as such lacking on the Russian site, and then they were pretty much on par with gun and armor quality.
The quality in leadership is where the big difference has been shown for the last year - russian soviet style versus nato intelligent troops is kind of baffling. Wonder what the Ukrainians can do when they outgrade russian armor.

OMG.

Tell me, how do you Westerners live in this parallel universe with ease?
How in your universe Russians doesn't have air superiority, if the fk strategig objects of Ukrain and destroying their energy infrastructure for all their care with their cruise missiles?
HOW?