Wot no coronavirus thread? Part 2

[pchang]

You forgot to attack the argument

Anyone who claims we can reach herd immunity without a vaccine while protecting the vulnerable is lying. Herd immunity without a vaccine requires such a high percentage of the population to get sick, that there is no way to achieve that number without also infecting large numbers of vulnerable people. If you look at people >= 65, extremely obese people, and diabetics, you get ~25% of the population, even accounting for overlaps.

[Kidlicious]

I don't think they have any significant control over how fast the virus spreads or when we reach herd immunity. They can control that more in countries like New Zealand. So we aren't really protecting the vulnerable more by slowing the spread. The original purpose of slowing the spread was to insure that hospitals don't get to full capacity and we got lucky that the virus isn't so bad that it put more people in the hospital. The fact that more people did require hospitalization isn't due to the efforts of the government.

[Ming]

The difference between working toward herd immunity via a vaccine vs. just letting it run wild is MILLIONS of Deaths.
And yeah, it's very difficult to "protect" the vulnerable when many people won't even practice the basic forms of prevention.

[Kidlicious]

The difference between working toward herd immunity via a vaccine vs. just letting it run wild is MILLIONS of Deaths.
And yeah, it's very difficult to "protect" the vulnerable when many people won't even practice the basic forms of prevention.

It isn't really working towards herd immunity, but you're making things up. The experts you follow don't predict millions of deaths if we don't have these lockdowns. The governors imposing these tyrannical lockdowns are claiming that we have to save even one life, which is insane.

And people following guidelines or not has nothing to do with lockdowns. That's a strawman and lockdowns discourage cooperation more than anything. At any rate, protecting the vulnerable is what's important and the lockdown governors suck at that really bad.

[Ming]

And then you have some stupid Republican Governor (Florida) who OK'ed 65,000 people in a Football Stadium.
"According to the governor’s office, stadiums are now allowed to operate at full capacity."
Even the NFL team said NO WAY, and is just going to allow 13,000.
There needs to be some common sense...
If people aren't going to follow the basic protections it's going to continue to spread.
31 states saw an increase... IT ISN'T GOING AWAY because a bunch of morons are running around not following basic safety rules.

[Aeson]

They can control that more in countries like New Zealand.

Yes, it can be controlled in countries which have good leadership setting sane policy.

[Kidlicious]

It's going to spread anyway. I don't know when they would have a stadium full like that, but if it's in the Spring then they will probably be at herd immunity in Florida. We might have a vaccine by that time too.

[Kidlicious]

Yes, it can be controlled in countries which have good leadership setting sane policy.

The lockdown policy is literally insane. We're talking about hysterical save every life nonsense. You can't save every life in the US. They can't even do that in New Zealand. You have to balance risks. Anything else is insane.

[Ming]

It's going to spread anyway. I don't know when they would have a stadium full like that, but if it's in the Spring then they will probably be at herd immunity in Florida. We might have a vaccine by that time too.

No... they are talking NOW. And with cases continuing to increase in Florida... Frickin MORONS.
And how much do you want to bet about being at Herd Immunity in the US by Spring...

[Kidlicious]

I'll bet you. I don't know what yet though.

[Kidlicious]

"What’s slowing Miami’s COVID spread? Partial ‘herd immunity’ may play a part


BY BEN CONARCK AND



DANIEL CHANG

AUGUST 14, 2020 01:09 PM, UPDATED AUGUST 14, 2020 08:52 PM Play Video
Duration 1:06
Restaurants protest Miami-Dade’s order to shut dining rooms again
Restaurant owners and employees rally in downtown Miami on Friday, July 10, 2020, to protest against Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez’s order to close inside dining at restaurants to avoid the spread of the coronavirus. BY MATIAS J. OCNER | CARLOS FRÍAS
As a deadly summer wave of virus continues to recede, Miami-Dade County officials and scientists are trying to figure out what combination of factors may have contributed to slowing a surge of COVID cases that at one point threatened to topple South Florida’s healthcare infrastructure.

Social distancing measures, face mask orders and curfews certainly helped, public health experts say, but so did other factors that they’re still working to understand — specifically, the seasonality of the virus and so-called herd immunity, which occurs when enough people in an area are infected with a virus to nearly eliminate transmission.

In Miami-Dade, Florida’s hardest hit county, there have been more than 140,000 confirmed cases — more than twice the number of cases in the next highest county, Broward —and a number that is certainly an undercount, according to blood surveys by county and federal officials that estimate the true infection rate is at least five times higher.

If those estimates are correct, that would mean Miami-Dade’s total infection rate could range from 10% to as high as 30% of the county’s population. That’s still far from reaching the threshold where herd immunity could reduce transmission to zero. The threshold for the novel coronavirus is still being debated, but is generally thought to require at least a 60% infection rate.

Opponents of public health restrictions have argued that herd immunity alone can stop transmission in hard-hit places such as Miami and, earlier in the course of the pandemic, New York City.
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But if the coronavirus were allowed to spread and reach full herd immunity in the United States, the “death toll would be enormous,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week.

Scientists emphasize that partial herd immunity only contributes to a decline and is not enough on its own to end the pandemic.

“What’s important to understand is that all of these things add up,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s T. H. Chan School of Public Health. “A modest amount of help from herd immunity combined with partially effective control measures, combined with the fact that it’s summer.”

But he also cautioned that the slow, downward slope of new cases in South Florida isn’t a reason to abandon any safeguards at all. The safeguards are one of the main reasons for the declines.

“Each of those is making a contribution to the trajectory in Miami and elsewhere. ... Herd immunity alone would not be enough to get us out of this pandemic at the current levels,” he said."

[Kidlicious]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244930467.html

[Kidlicious]

If we bet it won't be on 60% immunity. It will be some other measure because 60% isn't going to be required for effective herd immunity.

[pchang]

Effective herd immunity is defined as enough people being immune that R < 1 for new infections without doing anything else.

[Kidlicious]

Effective herd immunity is defined as enough people being immune that R < 1 for new infections without doing anything else.

And that could be achieved with 25% immunity in some places.

[Jon Miller]

That just isn't at all true.

JM